[sdrealtor]

Joe’s Sewing Machine Repairs, Mortgage Loans and Real Estate operations in every strip mall around SD. They are already vanishing on a daily basis.

[sdrealtor]

NSR,
Here’s my take on your numbers. There are about 650,000 family households. My guess is that most of us never really come into contact with more than a 1/3rd of those households and that they are outside our everyday frame of reference. Understanding where most of us are in life, that leaves about 400,000 middle class and up familes that we would genereally relate to on some kind of a personal. 1 out of 5 of those familes with HH incomes of $150K+ sounds about right to me.

SDR

[sdrealtor]

Now that you put it that I way, I agree about buying vs. renting. I have many clients that I am encouraging to wait. Buying a house is definitely better than renting. However, buying a house while commiting financial suicide is not.

[sdrealtor]

Who cares what % make 150K or 200K? They only need 10 families. That is not a lot. Lots of people make that kind of money. Anyone with a decent job in white collar sales makes that and probably more. Any two income professional family makes that also. You people need to get out a little more.

[sdrealtor]

Back in the mid-80’s, I was hanging out with my two best college friends doing things our parents wouldn’t approve of. On of my friends had inherited great wealth from his parents who bought IBM and never sold. To this day he still has it all and basically travels the world writing. I was lamenting my envy of his good fortune and wistfully hoping that someday I would find my IBM. The other friend, a comp sci major said there’s a little company that is going to change the world. It just went public, so buy their stock and never sell it. Fortunately I bought it. I did sell some several years ago but can’t imagine selling anymore anytime soon. Gotta love that MSFT!

[sdrealtor]

Having spent a good portion of my life there and as a frequent visitor I can definitively say that Philadelphia is a good place to be from not a good place to be.

having also spent a good portion of my life in NYC, I can defintively say it is an incredible place to be. The major problem is that it is an exhausting place to live and eventually wears you down.

[sdrealtor]

PC,
“People need to learn to manage their personal finances like businesses. A business doesn’t care if it owns or rents the building that it’s located it. The important thing is the profit to the shareholders at the end of year.”

Tell that to the wives and children of the world. I disagree on this one. If you run your personal finances like a business your will be very lonely. Your kids will never go to Disneyland as it’s not a good investment. You’ll never go out to dinner because it’s cheaper to eat at home. You’ll never buy a car because it depreciates the second you get behind the wheel. Sure there needs to be a decent balance but there is too much in life to enjoy on a personal basis to run one’s personal life like a business.

[sdrealtor]

I guess that I wasn’t clear. I agree with you that SD hasn’t changed substantially more than many other places. What I think has changed is the awareness of the desireability of SD and what it has to offer as perceived by people around the US and the world.

[sdrealtor]

FYI, I’m pretty sure that the law you are referring to governs investor purchases not purchases for primary residences.

[sdrealtor]

FSD,
I meant in the next 12 months

Brian,
The problem with your view is you don’t buy the data you buy the anecdote. It doesnt matter if all homes decline 20% (or whatever %), it matters that the one you want does. Also don’t forget that all pricing is at the margin. One low sale brings the rest down.

[sdrealtor]

Exactly PC!
Dont forget $1000 in taxes/mello roos and $250 HOA fees, homeowners insurance, a gardener etc.

[sdrealtor]

There is a large underserved market of renters willing to pay $3,000/month to rent a SFR. These will rent quickly.

[sdrealtor]

PC,
In 1997 prices were too low and it was cheaper to buy than rent. I bought then in what was a very desireable area and it was.

I may be alone in this belief, but to me SD is a very different place today than it was 20 years ago and even 10 years ago. The desirability and notoriety of SD has and continues to rapidly increase. Where I grew up on the other side of the US (in a couple of the very metropolitan cities), very few people knew anything about SD beyond the ZOO, the military and ugly brown/yellow Padres uniforms. To them SD might have well have been on Mars.

Now pretty much everyone knows what SD is about. Friends who thought I was crazy for moving to a “3rd World Country” now entertain thoughts of moving here. I don’t mean to suggest that accounts for all the run up but I certainly believe it added to it and has forever changed SD.

[sdrealtor]

It wouldnt be hard to do but it would be impossible to do with any real added accuracy. Months ago, I tried to explain until I was blue in the face how bad the data was. There are unique aspects to and problems with every single data point. Anything you see on housing data is shaky at best. Now that some of you are delving deeper into the data you are beginning to realize the complexity and problems yourselves.

A few months back, Rich and I had an exchange here about this and his fall back was that its the best we got. My reply was thats a cop out and it is not good enough. The only real measure of what is happening on the streets can come from an experienced and ethical RE agent with the interest, time and ability to actually figure out what’s happening. On another thread, I posted examples of what can best be described as “same store home sales”. IMHO, only through examples like this can you truly gauge what is really happening in the market.

Every home is unique in some way so there will always be exceptions but from my chair I see prices back to somewhere around Late 2003/Early 2004 prices.

A thought that just struck me for the first time is that I don’t know how accurate all the charts we use around here to prove the existence of the bubble and project where we will go are. I am certainly not denying the existence of a bubble, I just dont trust any of the data we see. I think there is as an equally good chance that the charts greatly exagerate or underestimate the extent of the bubble as they accurately express it. No one really knows what will happen and to date I have been able to consistently stay 6 months to 1 year ahead of the trends using my gut instinct from watching this thing everyday from the front row. For those that care, I think that prices will go down nominally another 5 to 10% this year. Beyond that, I’m not banking on anything.

[sdrealtor]

good advice

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