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sdrealtor
ParticipantFlippers generally dont put 20% down and live in a home for 2.5 to 3 years. I say he’s an unfortunate buyer who got in at the peak rather than a flipper.
ParticipantWorked for a builder most of his career. Tried to go it alone and was not successful.
ParticipantQuack! Plenty of downward price pressure in LCV! Plenty!
Quack, Several NOD’s and even one floreclosure on the market!
Quack! 4BR 2,400 to 2800 sq ft homes that sold in the high 800’s to low 900’s last year/summer struggling to sell in the mid to low 800’s.
Quack, almost without exception sellers in LC Oaks are losing money after all costs are added. Quack!
Quack! Duck has his facts all wrong! Quack!
Quack! I know a hard money lender that does plenty of sub prime loans in RSF for homes alot more than $2M! Quack!
ParticipantJax is the biggest pit I have ever been to and the worst excuse for a big city. I was there for the Super Bowl a couple years ago and was appalled. No nightlife at all. We had to stay an hour away to get a hotel room, which was a hole in the wall for $300/nigth. About 3 decent restaurant in town. It was an absolute joke.
Participant“Mr. Duluna says he trusted the mortgage broker, who was also the real-estate agent on the sale”
That’s a big problem! Never use a loan broker to buy a house…NEVER!
ParticipantIt looks like they jumped the shark!
ParticipantDHTH,
Thanks for the insight. I’ll watch you posts with a new sense of interest going forward. I know full well that the speculators have left the building and that is a big part of the equation. But so have alot of the opportunistic sellers who took the money and ran which is also a big part of the equation.I beleive we are going to be left with a smaller market as measured by number of sales) and that the market will increasingly be dominated by distress sales. What I dont know is how many there will be and how motivated the real stakeholders (the bagholders of the toxic loans) will be. I am under no illusions that prices wont fall to some degree. Watching this thing unfold from the street level on a daily basis I just am nowhere near as pessimistic as most others. Either way, I really have very little at stake in this as I could write a check for the balance on my mortgage today, have a few very good income sources and plenty of assets beyond that to carry me through my lifetime. My house is where my family lives, nothing more and I just dont envision any scenarios where I would ever sell it. Hopefully, one of my children will enjoy raising their family in it as much as I am.
ParticipantThere are professionals and jokesters in just about every field. BTW, I passed the CPA exam in 87.
ParticipantIt sounds like you are on pace to market time yourself into the poorhouse.
ParticipantSeasonally that is when it starts rising in earnest each year. If we dont see it starting to pour on in the next 30 days, it is unlikely to spike from regular sellers as opposed to the distressed market.
ParticipantJuice,
I really value my privacy and it would be impossible to disclose what they are without giving up that. I mention these kinds of things about my situation for a couple reasons. The first is that people will understand that I am as objective as an insider could be given that RE does not feed my family. The second is hopefully to inspire people to chase their dreams. People succeed and prosper in bad times as well as good times. It was very frustrating for me to listen to others present a doomsday situation several months ago. They were and continue to be guided by fear in their lives. Rest assured, I am as conservative and cautious as a person could be but I am not afraid of failure anymore. I have seen many successful people prosper with this attitude.In general, when I look at businesses I look for high margins and very simple product lines. Here’s an example. There was a pasta Shop in Encinitas that the owner sold a few months ago called Russo’s Pasta. Some of you may have heard of it. The owner was getting ready to retire and was lloking to sell. He made fresh pasta and sold a ton of it out of a small storefront off El Camino Real. Can you imagine the gross margins on a product that consists of flour and water? It had a good reputation, a loyal clientelle and had been there many years. It sold for about $210,000. It had growth opportunity by adding pizza and opening on Sundays. The new owner has done both. It’s not glam orous but as long as he sticks to the basics, this business will feed his family as long as he’s willing to work at it.
Without dislosing too much, my latest business is in a completely different field but one in which I have plenty of knowledge about and great passion for. It is completely recession proof, rapidly growing and has great margins. I had no idea how great it would be until it opened. If I had known, I would have done it years ago.
Participantdfth,
Yes I am in the business but that doesnt give me a vested interest in hoping you are not correct. If prices were cheaper my job would be easier. I would love for prices to be lower and for my clients (whom I genereally consider friends) to be able to easily afford the homes they want/deserve. It would also create huge buying opportunities for me personally. Unlike many in the biz my livelihood does not depend upon real estate. I also pride myself in staying ahead of the herd, something you can relate to by your handle.In genereal, I see housing bulls setting themselves up for disaster, while housing bears are paralyzed by fear and missing out on opportunites to create wealth in other ways. All the while, I continue dramatically improving my financial well being and future every month. It’s a shame my favorite poster (Docteur) was chased away several months ago. He inspired me to pursue opportunities I used to be too afraid to that are now bearing bountiful fruit for me. I guess my point is that I don’t really care what happens to RE as I will be in great shape either way. This allows me to watch and analyze whats happening with an objectivity and a front row seat few enjoy.
With that said, I just dont see the decline you are hoping for. In 1997, housing was definitely undervalued and a decent 3BR/2BA in good neghborhood was around $250,000. That was coming off the absolute bottom of prices in the prior cycle. Throw in roughly 4% inflation for the last 10 years and that raises prices up 50 to 60% from there. I just dont see prices for a decent 3/2 going below $350,000 to $400,000. In 1997, I used to eat at a local Italian joint and my favorite meal was $7.95. I still go there at least once a month and it’s now $13.95. Would I love to pay $7.95 again? Absolutely, but it aint gonna happen!
ParticipantBefore this weeks update I want to clarify one thing. The count we are tracking is the number of listings with the words “short sale” in them NOT the number of short sales which cannot be tracked. Due to limitations of the data, it includes listings that say “not a Short Sale” and double counts listings that say “short sale” in more than one of the fields I am searching. With that said, its the best we got and provides a useful way of watching distressed property sales increase.
Short sales 1,482 up significantly from 1398 last week. Probably the biggest single increase in a week since we began following this.
Total SD County Listings 15,892 essentially the same as 15,868 from last week and still relatively flat for the year.
Here is some data from my submarket. The number of pendings as of the 1st week in March is essentially the same as last year. However, detached home inventory is down about 13% and attached inventory is down 33% from last year. If we are going to see inventory spike dramatically it has to start in the next 30 days.
ParticipantListed below market, sold w/ multiple offers.
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