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sdrealtor
ParticipantMarch closing up to 2107 with more late reporters to come. That’s an additional 321 so far which makes my guestimate of 400 additional last week look pretty good.
ParticipantMy guess would be that while the degree of downside is unknown there is unlikely to be any upside appreciation. I’d say rent for a year to make sure the job situation is what you hope it is and let the wife/kids figure out where they really want to live up there.
Oh yeah…CONGRATULATIONS! It’s nice to see people proving success can be had regardless of what may or may not be happening on a macro economic level.
ParticipantUpdate time! This one’s for you LBC.
“Folks…we are only 21% of the way through 2007. Nearly 80% of the year awaits and I project it gets much, much worse before it gets any better. Have faith, will ya?”
Short sales 1,635 heading up again from 1,566 last week!
Total SD County Listings 15,393 essentially unchaged from 15,317 last week.
In the North County Coastal market that I watch closely, Inventory is DROPPING right now! It is nearly 20% lower than last year while pending are stable or higher. Here are the numbers for detached homes in 92009, 92011 and 92024.
438 SFR’s active the 1st week in April compared to 524 in 2006 and 282 in 2005. 186 SFR’s in escrow the 1st week in April compared to 176 in 2006 and 192 in 2005.
March closings of resale homes (I pull out the builder sales) were 90 last year and 89 reported so far for this year. Throw in a few late reporters and sales volume wil be up this year in my area. I’m sure the rest of SD is not seeing the same thing though.
ParticipantRenterClint,
No apology necessary (BTW, it’s neither mine nor Chris’s neighborhood) and there’s no reason why you couldnt stay where you are as a renter. If you love it stay there and raise your family there as a renter. I know of several original owners that kept their homes as rentals with very low fixed carrying costs and no intention of selling anytime soon. Save your money and eventually you can move somewhere cheaper to retire.As for this being the best area of SD, I’ll go a step further. I’ve lived and traveled the entire country. I grew up in a town across the country that most people in the US have heard of with some of the best schools in the nation. I am a firm believer that where I live is the best area in the US (at least for what I like) and thats why I choose to live here.
Lastly, I am starting to see my friends inherit wealth from their parents. How the wealth transfer from our parents generation to ours impacts things is another great unknown.
ParticipantI agree that the must sell transactions will determine the market. Where it gets fuzzy for me is whether people will be able to find nice homes in nice areas for sale at those prices. I currently believe the vast majority of owners will sit tight and while prices will be much lower it will be increasingly difficult to find a real gem to live in. My house might drop to $400,000 but it doesnt matter to me because it wont be for sale. If it did and there was a home I wanted to move up to for $600,000 I would keep my old one and with a fixed cost of about $2500/month could easily cover my carrying costs.
Also while 2007 volume looks significantly lower than 2006 countywide, it is relatively flat in the North County Coastal market. If you throw out all the builder sales that were in the MLS in 2006 but not this year, resales could even be up this year.
ParticipantAny information would be appreciated. Definitely not looking for a condo as he currently rents a penthouse downtown. Looking for a nice home in a nice community to raise a child in. Has a guaranteed very stable very high income (one of the top surgeons in his specialty on the islands) and is just looking to make better decisions this time around with his second wife and child
ParticipantUsed to charge for premium content is the operative phrase. I think the greatest education will be received by PS. The education of what it takes to be a successful entrepreneur.
ParticipantSomewhere on this board is a thread between SDcellar and myself looking at tenure of home ownership. In addition to my area we looked at a typical street in Clairemont and the average tenure appeared to be well over 10 years. I think my example above will hold for most areas except new construction built in the last 2 to 3 years.
ParticipantBTW, I agree with RO’s post as well. The drop over the last 18 months has been fairly significant in my area of town. Any drop from here will be painfully slow IMHO.
Welcome to the neighborhood Chris. It looks like a great home.
ParticipantRenterclint,
I just checked the most hoity toity of streets in LCV. Out of 89 homes, 2/3rds are under original ownership. Of the 1/3rd that have resold, many have very low LTV’s. I also know of several resales that were purchased by individuals with deep 8 figure net worths as well as a bunch with very substantial incomes that will have no problem sleeping. I live relatively close to that community and know it very well. I would guess that 10% would be the upper limit there and the real number is more likely about 5% potential REO’s.I have several good and very fiscally prudent friends living there that wont move because they have such a low tax basis. If prices fell, they would be more likely to move than if prices rose as strange as it might seem. However, here’s the problem. If prices fell another 30%, they would buy the bigger home they wanted and could easily afford but they would keep their current home as an investment because it would still be cash flow positive by at least $500/month with lots of upside on value.
I dont know if you want to own a home there if it makes sense financially for you at some point in time, but if prices ever reach $700K for a nice 4BR/3ba home there I wouldnt expect to see it go any lower. At that point, the monthly PITI+HOA would be around $4200 and aftertax it would be roughly equal the $3000 homes like that rent out easily there.
SDR
ParticipantRenterclint,
Wonder no more! Give me the name of the street and i will let you know. I believe LCV will fare well because the vast majority of homes are still under original ownership there at pre-2001 purchase prices. La Costa Oaks (nice homes, worse location and inferior community feel) on the other hand which was all sold at bubblicious prices wont fare so well IMHO. It seem like the same homes sell over and over again there as exec types transfer in and out for work while the core residents are dug in for the long haul. It would be an interesting test of my hypotheses.
SDRParticipantActually Encinitas is FINALLY about to get REALLY GOOD pizza. Knockout Pizza is opening on El camino Real at the Old target shopping center in a couple weeks. Thats something I am truly excited about!
ParticipantI hate generalizations but I think if you come here asking whether you should sell or not, you already know the answer!
March 30, 2007 at 11:21 PM in reply to: Almost back from vacation and wondering about something #48818ParticipantThe mapping change has been a debacle and we’ll be back with Mapquest by the end of next week. Gotta love the decision makers at the Board.
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