[sdrealtor]

I beleive it’s a combination of the two. We have had a fairly substantial nominal decline. Based upon some of your comments, it sounds like nominal prices could be down as much as 20% in your area from the peak. My guess is another 10 to 20% nominally (10% in the bag and 20% maybe) from here over several years whcih equates to another 20 to 30% in real terms.

[sdrealtor]

I have to agree with Masayako. The builders must love building in CA because they can pump up the prices so high and earn big margins.

[sdrealtor]

It is too early to tell because there are so many end of month closings and late reporters. With that said, based upon what I am seeing so far on a y-o-y basis:

Attached market volume stabilized a bit. Closings should be flat or maybe even up a little. Prices look to be flat also based upon the means.

Dettached market volume down about 20%. Prices on a $/sqft basis down about 3.5% so far.

My take is what I’ve been saying for several months now. A quick initial decline and then slow decay for the rest of the cycle with most of the decline ona real rather than nominal basis. The attached market took a big hit early on and the decline from here seems to be slowing down its pace. The detached market started its decline and we’ll see a decent nominal drop starting in late Summer and then prices with stabilize a bit on a nominal level next Spring. Also, some areas will fare much better than others.

In my submarket sales volume is already up about 20% over last year and should end up with an increase of 30% over last April.
Take it for what its worth.

[sdrealtor]

Si!

One problem is how are they calculating the numbers. Is the price/sq ft a mean, is it the price/sq ft of the median house or is it the median of all the price/sq ft data for houses sold in March?

So many data problems……

[sdrealtor]

I think his point really boils down to how can they build so cheap there and not here. I wish I knew the answer that question myself.

[sdrealtor]

Looks like a paid advertorial to me.

[sdrealtor]

AN,
I have to admit that it has been about 4 years since I’ve been near Scripps so perhaps things have gotten better. After what we went through, I sincerely hope they have. Atr going round about with you (dont we always seem to) I think you hit the nail on the head when you said.

“NCC has what you want so you prefer living there. SV has what I want, so I prefer living here. Both of us are right.”

Culturally different things are imprtant to you than me and I completely respect that. When i speak, it is from my perspective and I know everyone is not like me. That’s more than OK, its the way I like things. Also, I have no problem admitting NCC is not for everyone. The truth is my rant started with Mix’s rant that he didnt get Del Mar or Encinitas, that they were in the middle of nowhere and expensive for no reason.

[sdrealtor]

I’ve always thought that luck is the point where preparation and hard work meet.

[sdrealtor]

The entire HC system is broken out here but that discussion is for another day. It is no reflection on your wife but rather the entire system. Top to bottom, you find much better care at teaching facilites in Balt (Hopkins), Philly (Penn, Jefferson, Temple), Boston (Mass Gen, Yale New Haven) and NY (Sinai, Columbia) to name a few.

You pretty much have to drive everyone regardless of where you live here. My intent is not about having to drive places and I guess it is indicative of the difference in our values. It is about finding what you want within your community and not driving to someplace where you have no connection to. I look for a strong sense of community in the places I live. I abhor faceless suburbs made up of strip malls with no sense character and being in place. I was raised in place with a very strong community and I will raise my family in a similar place. The fact that I am close with friends that I crawled around a playpen with is no accident. I suspect my kids will have the same experience because that is what I value. It is what I have sought out and found where I live today.

And good luck finding a parking spot at TP or LJShores in the Summer.

Hasta…time to hit the beach

[sdrealtor]

We agree on most things. SV is close to everything but doesnt have the things I look as part of the community. You just have to be willing to drive somewhere else which I not. I can drive to beaches I love in less than 5 minutes and can always find a place to parke easily which isnt the case down south.

The one major exception I take is Scripps Hospital being tops in the country. It is abysmal. Both my wife and i have extensive experience in health care and know what we are talking about. They almost killed here twice and she is lucky to be alive. If we were the type to sue, my name could be on the building instead of Scripps. When we came back for the birth of our second child everyone their remembered us and thanked us for not suing them. Quite frankly they couldnt believe we didnt. The utter disregard for even basic infection control procedures was horrifying to us.

Access to high quality health care is one thing we all give up living in SD and most of the west coast for that matter. Should I ever require anything beyond basic healthcare, you will find me on a plane heading back east to one of the Top teaching hospitals found in several cities.

[sdrealtor]

AN,
That was a wonderful description and pretty much echos how I feel. The difference is that I chose where I wanted to live and then figured out how to earn a good living there. My RE office is less than 5 minutes from my house and I work from home often. My other local business is the same distance. I do have a significant interest in another business across the country with couple of my many childhood friends (that I have know my entire life, so they haven’t come and gone). For that I can use http://www.gotomypc.com to access what I do for that business from my couch. Right now I am logged into Quickbooks and working on marketing issues acoss the country while posting here, keeping an eye on the NFL draft and entertaining my kids. Definitely a multi-tasking morning!

Culturally we hold many of the same values re family and I see mine often too. My SIL is Thai and I cant wait for dinner tonite! NCC is far more than food and good schools to me. It is beautiful beaches, open space, a sense of history (albeit less than 100 years), parks, quality health care, education, entertainment, activities for my kids through the YMCA and City Rec depts and perhaps most importantly being surrounded by kind, caring, well educated people that share the same values as myself yet all come from different backgrounds.

As long as you depend on an employer you will be limited as to where you live. I chose to take control of my life and select where I wanted to spend the time I have on this planet and the lifestyle I wanted to lead. Only then did I worry about how I would support the lifestyle I wanted. I am living my dream and wish the same for you whatever it may be.

[sdrealtor]

What about the young couple whose family across the pond sends them money to buy a home?

[sdrealtor]

AN,
Dont get me wrong as I love to eat as much or more than the next guy but food and the ability to go home for lunch dont define me. The places I mentioned go well beyond eating which seems to be the only thing you can come up with for those areas.

BTW, if I want to eat great Indian food I go to my Indian friends home for dinner, same goes for Korean, Persian, Chinese, Japanese, Thai and Phillipine food. I’ve got friends whose ecompany I enjoy that would be as happy to have my family over for dinner as they would be to come over for one of my house specialties. If I want a steak, I pick up a big ol USDA Prime Cut at Tip Top and throw it on my grill out back or head down to Donovans.

[sdrealtor]

AN,
You are absolutely correct about Asian food being much better in the MM/kearny mesa area where those communities are centered. We probably have 1 or 2 of each type in each of the areas i mentioned. I love many types of food and dont live on hamburgers and hot dogs. My tastes for asian food tend do to the americanized versions with the exception of Indian food. With that said, i stand by what I said about all those places.

In Encinitas, you places like the Self Realization Fellowship (Swami’s), Quail Botanical Gardens, La Paloma Theatre, Pannikin Coffe shop (in the Old Train Station), Lou’s Record’s, Swami’s, Moonlight Beach, Cottonwood Creek park, Olivenhain, Leucadia, Ecke Ranch and the whole funky 101 corridor. Cardiff has the undeveloped coastline and great local joints like Pipe’s, VG’s, legendary surf spots and a state campground at the beach. In Solana Beach, you have great family owned restaurants in Eden Gardens like Tony Jakal’s that have been there for decades, The Belly Up Tavern, Fletcher Cove, Cedros Street etc. Del Mar has the track, dog beach, the torry pines reserve for hiking, Del Mar Plaza, Powerhouse Park and all the beach cottages. All of these areas make up what I consider the quintesential Southern California Beach Town experience.

Mira Mesa has Mira Mesa Blvd, Fuddruckers, Best Buy and On The border. Need I say more? Carmel Valley has a Ralphs where people dress to impress to go food shopping and a coupel strip shopping centers. Is there even a decent park there?

For someone with a love for the ocean, living in place like Encinitas is akin to a snow lover living in Steamboat.

[sdrealtor]

MIxx
You just dont get it. Encinitas, Cardiff, Solana Beach and Del Mar are real places with uniques cultures. they have real communities and even some history. This attracts real people with an entirely different backgrounds, senses of being and attitudes than many places in SD.

You can have souless places like Sorrento Valley, Carmel Valley, 4S Ranch, PQ, Rancho Bernardo, Mira Mesa etc. Those places to me are nothing more than a collection of strip malls surrounded by houses and chain/corporately owned busineses. I mean really, if you live in carmel valley where do you go for lunch, Chili’s TGIFridays, McDonalds. heck they dont even have decent Family owned Mexican restaurants there. All the places on the 15 corridor could exist in just about any part of California as they are. What distinguishes a place like RB/Poway from Temecula outside of a location closer to San Diego.

Sure OB is nice, if you dont have kids and prefer hanging out by the beach surrounded by vagrants. Point Loma is nice too, if you are 70 years old and retired but what do you do with a young family?

Personally, I think the places I mentioned are actually undervalued relative to other places in the country. I could live anywhere in the country and have been to most of it. I have never seen anyplace that suits me and my family better.

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