[sdrealtor]

Ozman,
Like I said I was in Serbal many, many times and it was not far nicer. The took less because their agents blew it out of the gate and they panicked. Plain and simple, the agents were hungry for market share and took every overpriced listing in LCV. They actually sold less than half of them and their reputation seems to have suffered a bit.

As for the cul de sac premium being misleading, you must live on Serbal. Hundreds of cars drive down Serbal every day while you can count traffic on Mirto on your digits. There is a big difference living on a cul de sac and across from one. We both know it. Sitio Olmo, Mirto, Abeto, the Northwest end of Serbal and Oliva are the prime locations in the LCV. Surely, you cant argue that.

In fact, another realtor last year bought a house on Abeto after living on Serbal across from the cul de sac paying a large premium to do so. Maybe it was you?

The point is while buyer sentiment is defintely up and homes are selling more briskly in the San Dieguito School District-prices are defintely not up from last year and can easily be shown to be down 5%. If you want to look in your home tract, look at the closed sales on Arrayan (both), Annanas, Robledo, Cereza, Coco, Pinon, Ciruela, Tulipero, Castana, Pimentera etc. While each of these homes would have struggled more to sell last year they would have sold for more.

BTW, I do agree that the Mirto house could have gotten a little more if they werent so overpriced out of the gate.

If you want take a look at the 12 homes that closed between 1/1/06 and 5/10/06 and let me know which one would sell for the same or more today? I can’t think of one.

[sdrealtor]

Ozman,
Actually I know both properties very, very, very well. In fact, the wife of the seller’s for the one sold last year was a very dear friend of my wife. The price they took was about 75K low at the time and they knew it. The agents overpriced the home by at least $100K out of the gate and by the time an offer came in the sellers were so panicked they just wanted out and took a very low offer unecessarily. Their listing agents begged them not to but they did anyway. Had it been listed around $1.125M out of the gate it would have sold far quicker and for more. It was a nice house but on a fairly well traveled street in LCV. That house should definitely have sold for $1.1M last year. I was in this house several times and can assure you that it did not have superior upgrades, did not have a superior location and had an inferior North facing yard.

The house that just sold was on one of the best cul de sac locations in LCV and definitely commanded a premium. That house would have easily sold for $1.125 to $1.15M last year. It had equal or better upgrades, an in ground spa (the other had nothing out back but grass), a cul de sac location and a very desireable southwest facing yard. By my calculations that is about 5% off the top.

The data you brought was fact but without intimate knowledge of the situations it was easy to misinterpret what really happened. Unfortunately, you just lobbed a softball down the middle of my strike zone.

[sdrealtor]

I used to own a company in the Rose Canyon Industrial park. Is the Blue Collar Grill still around?

[sdrealtor]

I agree that buyers are optimistic but check any of the big tracts in that area like Summerfield, Fieldstone, Village Park, Cantebria, Sandelwood, Cambria/Mendocino, Encinitas Ranch, Villanitas, Rancho Ponderosa, Arroyo Vista, Santa Fe Trails, La Costa Oaks, La Costa off Levante, Greystone on the park etc (did I miss any?) and you will see prices down about 5%.

The only transactions that were 5 to 10% higher were a couple cases of apparent lender fraud by a single agent (Super Janae).

[sdrealtor]

Ozman,
Statistics dont always tell you what is happening on the streets. In South Carlsbad/Encinitas, I have seen several “like for like” sales that indicate a price decline of approximately 5%. Properties are selling briskly in the area but prices are defintely down from last year.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

forclosure salz are not in the mls unlest they came back as REO’s after goin bak to the lenduh

[sdrealtor]

Might not be the same property but there is one on the market that is 5/2.5 2,910 sq ft 6,600 sq ft lot and listed at $1.499 to $1.599M. Has been listed about 1 year at higher numbers.

In the last 4 years, I see 4 sales between 950K (3/2 1600 fixer) to 1.165M (4/2 2000 sq ft fixer). Beyond that there were sales at 1.9M (5,000 sq ft on Cordova), 2.05M (Sunset Cliffs) and 3.1M (Sunset Cliffs).

[sdrealtor]

Get a Good Faith estimate (GFE) and look out for junk fees. I’ve seen loans with junk fees totaling a few thousand dollars on a low rate that could have been used to buydown the rate quoted from another lender w/ a higher rate but lower fees.

[sdrealtor]

Hammer,
I pretty much echo what SD R said. If you can afford it, will stay and truly want to be there… go for it. Houses like that are very hard to come by and you are right in that someone often has to die to get one. More so, the heirs have to be in the position not to want to live there themselves which adds more difficulty. Lastly, the home is probably owned free and clear or close to it. If the market is tough or gets tougher, the heirs will rent it out until times get better unless they absolutely dont have any options. For a house like that with unobstructable panoramic view 1 block from the cliffs, the price seems good without checking comps. It’s the price of admission if you want to own something like that. In Manhatten Beach it would probably be 2X or 3X that.

Much of the advice you are getting comes from people on this board who have never tried to find a home like that. I have one in escrow that we searched 5 years to find. They are few and far between at any price not to mention what appears to be a reasonable price.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Arny
Closer to the coast with better freeway access will help the older homes not to mention lower prices and fees. Think of it this way, there are alot more pretty new homes in Torrey Hills than older CV in the area you are referring to. If you are highly concerned about holding value, you will likely do better in an area where supply is relatively low.
SDR

[sdrealtor]

I think your first graph with a 10:1 scale is actually a very reasonable comparison and does a good job showing the higher velocity on the distressed side of the market.

[sdrealtor]

Wrong house. You are probably thinking of 13796 Durango which had a backyard overlooking DM Heights Rd. This one was at 13881 Durango (a block North of DM Heights) overlooking Crest Canyon.

P.S. If you have a nice ocean view and want to sell your house, let me know. I have a ready, able and willing buyer up to about $2M.

[sdrealtor]

There are definitely appraisers that wont bend the rules. I have been involved in several transactions the last few years where there werent comps for the property my clients were selling and/or buying. It wasnt a case of trying to inflate the value but rather finding properties that were comparable. Some appraisers said they couldnt justify the value with the available comps while others found ways to make the adjustments to come up with the value or at least get close.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Short sales 2,113 up from 2,021 last week! We’ve been climbing close to 100 each week.

Total SD County Listings 17,075 another relatively small climb from 16,796 last week. Inventory does not appear to flooding the market and I wonder if it will.

Quick update on NC Coastal. Active listings are flat (460 to 457) and pendings (in escrow) are also (168 to 169). Along the NCC, the market is still very tight for well priced homes. I wrote an offer on the kind of property I mentioned last week. Nothing fancy, just a nice clean 4BR home under 10 years old priced at the last closed sale. It was definitely well prepared and well marketed. There were 5 full price offers on the property after the first day on the market. I believe 3 were from corporate relocation clients coming from out of the area and that they all had very substantial down payments. My clients didnt get it.

[sdrealtor]

Not skewing them at all. We are following the number of times “short sale” appears in listings as a way of tracking distress in the market. I think the cases you mention are very limited. Usually when you see not a short sale, its an REO.

[Author]

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