[sdrealtor]

The lender will only accept a short sale if they dont believe they can do better based upon the comps. The decisions made by the lenders are often convaluted ones made by young MBA’s with no idea as to what is happening on the streets. When they turn one down, sometimes they win and sometimes they lose.

The price the property is offered while attempting a short sale is often arbitrarily low in a desparate attempt to get a quick offer acceptable to the lender through a bidding war. The seller doesnt have the luxury of time while the lender does. The lendeers dont want to dump properties for a couple reasons. First and foremost they are looking to mitigate their losses. Second, if they sell cheap they create a lower market level that they could easily be selling a couple more into.

[sdrealtor]

NSR,
The mls only goes back to around 1996. Another potential problem is ZIP Code changes. I’m not sure but I think there was a ZIP code change in the CV area in the mid 90’s which would further complicate things.

Anyone around her been in CV more than 10 years? If so, have there been any ZIP code changes in that area?

[sdrealtor]

Its all relative. Ask a resident of NYC and they would consider it a bargain. Ask a Midwesterner and they would ask how many acres it came with.

[sdrealtor]

I feel as you do about nicer/more laid people/peace/quiet but the funny thing is that to me SD is a small town that has all that compared to where I grew up

[sdrealtor]

dupe

[sdrealtor]

Quick and dirty analysis on one fo the homes.

Morgan Creek in Oceanside

3750 sq ft bland home with very little upgrades. Purchased in 2005 for 750K w/ 100% financing. On market for over 1 year starting at 820K. Last listed at 650 to 699K trying to get a short sale before end of 2006 then as an REO at 698K for the 1st 3 months in 2007.

There are currently 15 homes for sale in this tract which cant be bigger than 200 homes. There are 3 pending and 4 have closed in 2007. All the closed sales were 2300 to 2600 sq ft models at prices between 525K and 570K. There are 5 of the 3000 sq ft plus homes on the market at prices from 650K to 800K.

With the 5% added to 615K it’s a sale at $650K.

Verdict… No deal here! This house sold more or less at retail.

[sdrealtor]

No disrepect to Tony Bennett but it sounds like you left your heart in SF.

[sdrealtor]

New Renter,
No problem, I wasnt offended and dont take things like this personally. To me its mostly about learning, exchanging ideas and entertainment around here. The market you are looking in is a whole different ball of wax. A decline from $2M to 1.5M wouldnt shock me either. Here’s what you are more likely to run into. In the nice coastal areas (like DM for example) you are just getting started with nice homes around $2M today. I know as I’ve been looking in DM in that range. The really good stuff starts closer to $3M. So even if prices drop from $2M to $1.5M, the problem will be finding something you like. Ultimately, finding a tear down and building a custom home might be a better option. I have a couple escrows right now on $1.5 to $2M spec homes that I found for my clients after 3 and 5 years searches before they ever went on the market. If you really want something nice, which I’m sure you do, I would recommend that you never stop looking. You never know when you will find exactly what you are looking for and if you do, it might be so perfect that you will end up pulling the trigger sooner than you thought.

Personally, I have about 15 to 20 years to find what I am looking in a very limited four block radius. Where there is at most 1 or 2 sales a year. I need to find a tear down to do what I want. I even know the builder that will be building my home when I am ready. When i find the right location, I will be pulling the trigger no when it comes up.

[sdrealtor]

One more thing. I just did some quick research. Its listed at 650K right now not 600K. Debt on it looks like about 750K. Zillow put it at about $800 FWIW which frankly isny much. Recent comps are 650k to 700K for 1500 sq ft homes down the street. Would you expect a bank to approve a 600K sale?

[sdrealtor]

In a short sale situation, the property is put on the market at a price that is irrelevant because it does not matter what the seller accepts as they have no ability to accept an offer below their loan. The bank decides.

Here is an example. 100%Buyer pays $1M for house which drops to $900K. Buyer had 100% financing and now has been hit by a reset of his option arm and cant afford payments. 100%Buyer puts house on the market for $750K and you say WOOOOOHOOO!!! The market just dropped 25% from the peak! Someone walks in and says not only will I pay you $750K, I’ll outbid the other 3 offers you have and will pay you $800K! 100%Buyer says great and submits the offer to the lender. Lenders says Go pound sand loser! Lender forecloses on property and puts it on the market somewhere between $850K and $900K.

Does that make sense?

[sdrealtor]

If SD isnt that different from Oroville why are you praying that the market crashes?

[sdrealtor]

FLU,
Again you are debating yourself. The decline isnt starting in CV. It started 18 months ago. Last year prices declined quite significantly between Winter and Spring. This year prices in Late Spring are flat from prices in the Winter. This wasnt the case last year. There probably arent enough data points for a real solid statisical analysis but that is what I am seeing along the NC coast. Once he get into August, demand should slow down and prices will suffer. I have never said anything different.

BTW, under $700K there are 3 active lstings and 4 pendings

[sdrealtor]

How is this for better times? I went back 10 years and checked the Closings for April in 92130

1997 – 28
1998 – 36
1999 – 42
2000 – 36
2001 – 40
2002 – 50
2003 – 59
2004 – 70
2005 – 45
2006 – 45
2007 – 49

Yes there are more houses in CV but my take is that 2003 and 2004 were unusual and probably outliers from a statistical perspective. When people compare current stats with the peak bubble sales and appreciation years they are overstating the decline. I laugh when I see people say we have 6 times more inventory than we did in early 2004 when we had about 3000 properties for sale in SD. That was not a normal inventory level and that horrendous imbalance between supply and demand caused prices to spike dramatically in early 2004. Fortunately, we are now undoing all the effects of that imbalance and if we get back to early 2003 nominal prices we should be back on track IMHO.

[sdrealtor]

Rustico,
I’ll address your comments in a couple days on The Short Sale monitor when I have access to my historical data. I dont have data for CV back to 2003 and 2004 which were the best of times but I have that data for Encinitas and South Carlsbad. With a bit of extrapolation, I should be able to get an idea of how this year compares with the best of times.

I never said that there arent bad signs in CV. There are bad signs everywhere. But just as there are bad signs, there are good signs also. In CV the balance between the good and the bad is better than anywhere else I have seen in SD.

Lastly, my comment about the next few weeks being key spoke to seller motivation not buyer motivation. Most sellers are optimistic and worry that their house could sell quickly and that they might have to move b4 school goes on Summer break. The most intense listing period from year to year occurs between 5/1 and 6/15.

One final comment which I may have not ever made on this board b4 but I HATE CARMEL VALLEY! There is not enough gold in Ft Knox to make me live there. Too congested, too much attitude and too conservative thinkers.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Rustico,
I post regular commentary on the NCC every Monday in The Short Sale Monitor. The fours day I posted on are pretty much the story I’ve seen all Spring. CV is probably the strongest market in all of SD right now followed closely by Encinitas and South Carlsbad. Again, I did not say prices are rising but rather they are holding their own this Spring. Last Spring, inventory was climbing rapidly by this time and prices were falling hard through Spring. This year inventory is modeartate and prices are relatively firm.

BTW, a ratio of 149/63 is very very strong. It’s just over 2 to 1. last year it was closer to 4 to 1.

Lastly, these are very key days we are going through right now. If you are of the mind to move when school ends you put your house on the market in Mid May to early June so you wont have to move b4 school gets out even if it sells quickly. Right or wrong, Alot of people think this way.

[Author]

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