Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
sdrealtor
ParticipantSD R,
I absolutely consider you a peer and greatly respect your opinions on the market. You categorized our differences pretty well. I beleive there is definte value to what you do and for the clients that chose your services. I have friends that have put great transaction together for themselves and friends with neighbors that are selling w/o using RE agents and tell them its great if it works for everyone. However, at times I wonder whether you discount the value of a skilled/experienced full service agent. Enough of that thought we could go on forever on that.As for the Thanksgiving table, if I sent you to the kids table I’d be there with you. Though my personal preference is eating off a tray in front of my TV watching the NFL.
ParticipantSD R,
I absolutely consider you a peer and greatly respect your opinions on the market. You categorized our differences pretty well. I beleive there is definte value to what you do and for the clients that chose your services. I have friends that have put great transaction together for themselves and friends with neighbors that are selling w/o using RE agents and tell them its great if it works for everyone. However, at times I wonder whether you discount the value of a skilled/experienced full service agent. Enough of that thought we could go on forever on that.As for the Thanksgiving table, if I sent you to the kids table I’d be there with you. Though my personal preference is eating off a tray in front of my TV watching the NFL.
Participantrustico,
keep it coming. I thrive on irreverence and dont mind the attacks or challenges. The data available on RE is horrible IMHO. Every data point has some unique aspects that I really dont trust anything as a true measure outside of my gut feeling of what a given house is worth today vs what i beleive it would have sold for 1 year ago etc. Data like this is valuable for one reason, over time it allows you to follow how the market changes in direction and at what rate. nothing more.gn
CV is not the least expensive area in NCC it is actually one of the most expensive. What is most interesting about it to me is how far the homes range across the spectrum. There are starter homes in the 600’s and it goes up to around 3M. Its a wonderful cross section covering many price ranges.I also beleive that while not everyone aspires to CV (I dont) it is a good indicator of what is happening among relatively well paid professionals seeking homes close to work. I beleive that descirbes most of the piggingtons. What is happening here is probably similar to what is happening in the nicer communites with good locations like Scripps, Tierasanta, Poway, RB/4S, UC etc.
Participantrustico,
keep it coming. I thrive on irreverence and dont mind the attacks or challenges. The data available on RE is horrible IMHO. Every data point has some unique aspects that I really dont trust anything as a true measure outside of my gut feeling of what a given house is worth today vs what i beleive it would have sold for 1 year ago etc. Data like this is valuable for one reason, over time it allows you to follow how the market changes in direction and at what rate. nothing more.gn
CV is not the least expensive area in NCC it is actually one of the most expensive. What is most interesting about it to me is how far the homes range across the spectrum. There are starter homes in the 600’s and it goes up to around 3M. Its a wonderful cross section covering many price ranges.I also beleive that while not everyone aspires to CV (I dont) it is a good indicator of what is happening among relatively well paid professionals seeking homes close to work. I beleive that descirbes most of the piggingtons. What is happening here is probably similar to what is happening in the nicer communites with good locations like Scripps, Tierasanta, Poway, RB/4S, UC etc.
ParticipantRustico,
Just to be clear, my intent was not to rib you. You pushed me to challenge myself and my assumptions. I like that. I chose CV because many of the participants here follow that market and homes in the same class. I have a bad habit of using blanket statements and you have exposed that. Imagine the horro my wife goes through when I tell here everything is 5 minutes away when she asks.I looked at San Carlos and have a few issues with using it. First the sample size is much smaller with only 61 actives and 28 pendings which btw is not stronger than the CV ratio. It is also a very homogenous range of homes with prices running from 400K to 700K (with prices higher being very rare). It could be a good measure for the entry level market.
When i look at CV I see an area with great schools close to the employement centers for the white collar professional workers that are so predominant around this blog. If I was addressing a different audience I would have chosen a different area.
ParticipantRustico,
Just to be clear, my intent was not to rib you. You pushed me to challenge myself and my assumptions. I like that. I chose CV because many of the participants here follow that market and homes in the same class. I have a bad habit of using blanket statements and you have exposed that. Imagine the horro my wife goes through when I tell here everything is 5 minutes away when she asks.I looked at San Carlos and have a few issues with using it. First the sample size is much smaller with only 61 actives and 28 pendings which btw is not stronger than the CV ratio. It is also a very homogenous range of homes with prices running from 400K to 700K (with prices higher being very rare). It could be a good measure for the entry level market.
When i look at CV I see an area with great schools close to the employement centers for the white collar professional workers that are so predominant around this blog. If I was addressing a different audience I would have chosen a different area.
ParticipantRustico get your panties out of a bunch and help me do it right then. If you have a suggested improvement to the methodology I’m all ears and would gladly make it better. Here’s what I’m thinking. The balance between supply and demand is among the best in all of SD county if not the best as measured by the actives vs. pendings. If this market weakens it might a bad sign for weaker markets. If it doesnt weaken that isnt necessarily a sign that other markets wont but it would certainly provoke further questions and analysis. This is about absolute answers, we all know better than that. It’s about watching changes in the marketplace and this is yet another way. The truth is we could look at any market and use it as a benchmark. I just chose this one because so many around here are interested in it (in spite of the fact I dont care for CV at all).
Pendings are the same thing as in escrow.
New listings are either new or relists. It doesnt matter because we are measuring the change and relists would be balanced by expireds/cancelleds.
Participant5/8 to 5/14
new listings – 6
back on market – 3Total growth in inventory – 9
pendings – 17
expired – 2
withdrawn – 3
cancelled – 2Total decrease in inventory – 24
Net change in inventory – minus 15
FYI-there are currently 142 homes on the market in 92130 of which 38 are over $2M and 71 in escrow of which of which 6 are over $2M. Up to $1.5M there are 87 on the market and 58 in escrow.
See ya next week….
Participant5/1 to 5/7
new listings – 14
back on market – 1Total growth in inventory – 15
pendings – 6
expired – 6
withdrawn – 2
cancelled – 5Total decrease in inventory – 19
Net change in inventory – minus 4
ParticipantYou have to see it to understand but the house sits at the back of a really nice neighborhood with no fees, mature trees, great schools, nice size lot on a quiet street with a really nice view. For what it is, it could be spectacular with a little not alot of work. It should sell for at least the same price of one in an inferior location but better condition. I think SD R would be uniquely qualified to comment on it as he has another one in escrow around the corner. Would love to hear his point of view.
ParticipantI defitinely agrre with that one Bugs. My point really boils down to the fact that you buy a house not a statistic. The peak is seldom a single point in time nor is the trough. With a straight thinking mind and good help, you should be able to match or even beat the market. Personally, I always take it as a challenge to help my clients beat the market whatever it might be.
ParticipantHouses only sell if priced right but if marketed right they can sell faster and therefore at higher prices in a declining market. Thats the heart of what I’m saying.
Fixers are a real tough sell even at good prices. SD R check out the house on La Duela and tell me otherwise after looking at it. Great location w/ view, great neighborhood, good lot, single level fixer that isnt horrible and inferior houses (potentialwise) in better shape are selling all around it in a week or so at much higher prices.
Participantjg,
I think we are splitting hairs now. Perhaps after this coming cycle with the benefit of hindsight one might be able to find data points illustrating a 50% median decline but that doesn’t mean a specific house lost that much. The median is a rough measure and I think we need to be a bit more pragmatic. I’d say it was safe to say that around the prior peak there was an extended period of time whereby the median home price was around 650 and at the trough there was an extended period of time whereby it went down to around 450 representing a nominal decline of around 30%. Given all this, if history repeats itself nominal declines of 30% are forthcoming and it is reasonable to assume you will be able to find one with a decline fo that magnitude.sdr
ParticipantIn a rising market inventory tends to be very thin and buyers more apt to take whatever they can get. In a falling market buyers want turnkey AND a great price. That is what is selling right now. Fixers arent selling and overpriced palaces arent selling. We can express our opinions all we want but that is what’s is happening right now among real rather than “prospective” buyers. When we hit bottom bargain hunters will swarm the fixers in an attempt to be at the absolute bottom. The problem is a fixer is often alot more of a fixer than they bargained for.
-
AuthorPosts
