[sdrealtor]

Not sure but here’s my guess. Sandicor includes out of SD County home but I pull them out when I run stats. ZIP might have them included. I also only look at attached and detached while they may include 2 to 4 unit properties and land.

Most significant is that in February, Sandicor pulled homes without sq ftage listed out of the stats function that I use to pull numbers. They said they skewed the calculation of price/sq ft. Personally, I think there are problems with both numbers (ZIP and Mine). I dont recommend looking at the numbers as absolutes but rather a way to look at direction and velocity in the market. As long as I keep the methodology consistent we should get that. Make sense?

[sdrealtor]

Cheez wid fried onions at Pat’s is my choice.

[sdrealtor]

Cheez wid fried onions at Pat’s is my choice.

[sdrealtor]

You are an idiot! I dont know why I even bother but here goes. For a science teacher you can’t even handle basic math. I said the total would reach around 1300. That isnt dropping it is an increase over last year. Its a decrease in a volume of 9% from 2005 and 12% from 2004. Face it, you are dead wrong. There is no interpretation necessary.

You never asked for pricing. But here goes anyway. There is no way for me to calculate median prices across this data as the MLS system doesnt support that but I can provide the average price numbers. I also provided avg sq ft which is available as well. It’s the best we got.

2004 2,684 sq ft $1,072,428 ($400/sq ft)
2005 2,624 sq ft $1,176,811 ($448/sq ft)
2006 2,703 sq ft $1,252,146 ($463/sq ft)
2007 2,701 sq ft $1,206,357 ($447/sq ft)

It is important to note that $/sq ft typically decreases as the size of the house goes up because there are many major fixed costs that arent impacted by size (land, 1 kitchen, 1 HVAC system, 1 electrical system, 1 approval/permit process etc.)

So we have 2007 price/sq ft equal to 2005. If you consider its a bigger avg size house it actually went up a little and is much higher than 2004. We see a 3% decline since last year in pricing.

Volume is up from last year, inventory is down from last year, prices are slowly declining. That is what I call the appearance of balancing. Where we go from here is anyone’s guess but your wild claims are just plain wrong at this time.

[sdrealtor]

You are an idiot! I dont know why I even bother but here goes. For a science teacher you can’t even handle basic math. I said the total would reach around 1300. That isnt dropping it is an increase over last year. Its a decrease in a volume of 9% from 2005 and 12% from 2004. Face it, you are dead wrong. There is no interpretation necessary.

You never asked for pricing. But here goes anyway. There is no way for me to calculate median prices across this data as the MLS system doesnt support that but I can provide the average price numbers. I also provided avg sq ft which is available as well. It’s the best we got.

2004 2,684 sq ft $1,072,428 ($400/sq ft)
2005 2,624 sq ft $1,176,811 ($448/sq ft)
2006 2,703 sq ft $1,252,146 ($463/sq ft)
2007 2,701 sq ft $1,206,357 ($447/sq ft)

It is important to note that $/sq ft typically decreases as the size of the house goes up because there are many major fixed costs that arent impacted by size (land, 1 kitchen, 1 HVAC system, 1 electrical system, 1 approval/permit process etc.)

So we have 2007 price/sq ft equal to 2005. If you consider its a bigger avg size house it actually went up a little and is much higher than 2004. We see a 3% decline since last year in pricing.

Volume is up from last year, inventory is down from last year, prices are slowly declining. That is what I call the appearance of balancing. Where we go from here is anyone’s guess but your wild claims are just plain wrong at this time.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Sorry for the delay but I had to take a quick vacation to find some Sun to keep the family from going bonkers with all the gloomy weather of late. I ran the numbers the same time as usual on Monday but didnt have the time to post an update until now.

Short sales 2,369 up from 2,260 last week! Increases are still steady.

Total SD County Listings 17,725 another small climb from 17,548 last week. This tends to be a big week for new listings. Next week’s report will be telling.

Quick update on NC Coastal. Active listings(468 to 485) and pendings (180 to 171) went in opposite directions which tips the scales a bit towards the buyers side.

Anecdotes from the field. I was driving back home through French Valley/Murrieta/Temecula today and cant believe how many homes have been built out there. It doesnt surprise me that speculation and fraud was rampant out there. What the hell does anyone need with an 8 bedroom house anyway?

In f/u to last weeks post, the nice house in Del Mar I mentioned last week went into escrow on 5/30 right after Memorial Day. We looked at 4 houses that day and 3 out of 4 we looked at have sold.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Sorry for the delay but I had to take a quick vacation to find some Sun to keep the family from going bonkers with all the gloomy weather of late. I ran the numbers the same time as usual on Monday but didnt have the time to post an update until now.

Short sales 2,369 up from 2,260 last week! Increases are still steady.

Total SD County Listings 17,725 another small climb from 17,548 last week. This tends to be a big week for new listings. Next week’s report will be telling.

Quick update on NC Coastal. Active listings(468 to 485) and pendings (180 to 171) went in opposite directions which tips the scales a bit towards the buyers side.

Anecdotes from the field. I was driving back home through French Valley/Murrieta/Temecula today and cant believe how many homes have been built out there. It doesnt surprise me that speculation and fraud was rampant out there. What the hell does anyone need with an 8 bedroom house anyway?

In f/u to last weeks post, the nice house in Del Mar I mentioned last week went into escrow on 5/30 right after Memorial Day. We looked at 4 houses that day and 3 out of 4 we looked at have sold.

[sdrealtor]

One quick request before Update time. Please dont hijack this thread as it makes it difficult to follow the trend. There are plenty of other places to talk other markets/issues.

5/23 to 5/30

new listings – 18
back on market – 2 (both fell out of escrow)

Total growth in inventory – 20

pendings – 13
expired – 1
withdrawn – 2
cancelled – 2

Total decrease in inventory – 18

Net change in inventory – plus 2

Random thoughts
7 new listings and 5 pendings in the sub 800 market which is quite alot for heart of CV. Last year there wasnt much under 900K except for the real small homes.

2 sales over $3M.

[sdrealtor]

One quick request before Update time. Please dont hijack this thread as it makes it difficult to follow the trend. There are plenty of other places to talk other markets/issues.

5/23 to 5/30

new listings – 18
back on market – 2 (both fell out of escrow)

Total growth in inventory – 20

pendings – 13
expired – 1
withdrawn – 2
cancelled – 2

Total decrease in inventory – 18

Net change in inventory – plus 2

Random thoughts
7 new listings and 5 pendings in the sub 800 market which is quite alot for heart of CV. Last year there wasnt much under 900K except for the real small homes.

2 sales over $3M.

[sdrealtor]

ls2008
You dont have to dare me, just ask nicely and I’ll be happy to oblige you. I am not spinning anything either. I presented facts that show VOLUME is not drying up. Pricing is defintely down from the peak and I have never said anything to contrary on this blog. But supply and demand are giving the appearance of balancing out along Prime Coastal SD areas. Volume not declining and inventory is DOWN which does not bode well for the UberBear sentiment. Here are your 2004 and 2005 numbers. Don’t need to spin anything, make your own inferences.

2004-1489
2005-1432
2006-1218
2007-1200 so far (late reporters and todays closings should push it over 1300 if not more)

[sdrealtor]

ls2008
You dont have to dare me, just ask nicely and I’ll be happy to oblige you. I am not spinning anything either. I presented facts that show VOLUME is not drying up. Pricing is defintely down from the peak and I have never said anything to contrary on this blog. But supply and demand are giving the appearance of balancing out along Prime Coastal SD areas. Volume not declining and inventory is DOWN which does not bode well for the UberBear sentiment. Here are your 2004 and 2005 numbers. Don’t need to spin anything, make your own inferences.

2004-1489
2005-1432
2006-1218
2007-1200 so far (late reporters and todays closings should push it over 1300 if not more)

[sdrealtor]

Sorry but volume is not drying up in the prime areas of Coastal SD (Point Loma through Carlsbad). A quick check of the first 5 months of closed sales reveals virtually identical numbers for 2006 and 2007. ANyone with MLS can easily verify this.

Throw in another couple of weeks for late reporters and 2007 will be well ahead of 2006 sales volume!

[sdrealtor]

Sorry but volume is not drying up in the prime areas of Coastal SD (Point Loma through Carlsbad). A quick check of the first 5 months of closed sales reveals virtually identical numbers for 2006 and 2007. ANyone with MLS can easily verify this.

Throw in another couple of weeks for late reporters and 2007 will be well ahead of 2006 sales volume!

[sdrealtor]

Yo JG!
Pat’s or Geno’s? Wid or Widout? Your feelings toward public schools make sense coming from a South Philly Goomba;) Philly schools have long been aweful and most of the kids from minority (you should know what I mean by that) families depend on the Catholic schools for a decent education.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Yo JG!
Pat’s or Geno’s? Wid or Widout? Your feelings toward public schools make sense coming from a South Philly Goomba;) Philly schools have long been aweful and most of the kids from minority (you should know what I mean by that) families depend on the Catholic schools for a decent education.

sdr

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