[sdrealtor]

10 years ago me and my wife made $125K and lived in an $800 apartment.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry no blah blah blah here. My very special clients are all buying primary residences not second homes.

[sdrealtor]

Sorry no blah blah blah here. My very special clients are all buying primary residences not second homes.

[sdrealtor]

Just one data point but I met with the son of a client last week. He’s 2 years out of college, works in Biotech and makes 45k/year. He’s lived with Mom the last years and saved about $40,000 in the bank and wanted to buy something. BTW, My advice was stay at home or find an apartment while you build your career. Great start with the saving but need higher income. Wait out the market a couple years as downside risk could easily wipe out all you have accomplished saving the last 2 years.

[sdrealtor]

Just one data point but I met with the son of a client last week. He’s 2 years out of college, works in Biotech and makes 45k/year. He’s lived with Mom the last years and saved about $40,000 in the bank and wanted to buy something. BTW, My advice was stay at home or find an apartment while you build your career. Great start with the saving but need higher income. Wait out the market a couple years as downside risk could easily wipe out all you have accomplished saving the last 2 years.

[sdrealtor]

gverdi,
Not sure where you got your numbers but here are some from the MLS for dettached homes.

jan 07 – 28
feb 07 – 30
mar 07 – 55
apr 07 – 48
may 07 – 41 (should be a couple late reporters added)

apr 04 – 69
may 04 – 42

apr 05 – 43
may 05 – 58

apr 06 – 44
may 06 – 43

Also, inventory is significantly lower this year than last year which means buyers have fewers choices. Whether more inventory would produce more buyers or confuse buyers is unknown.

Have at it but I dont see the devastation you did.

[sdrealtor]

gverdi,
Not sure where you got your numbers but here are some from the MLS for dettached homes.

jan 07 – 28
feb 07 – 30
mar 07 – 55
apr 07 – 48
may 07 – 41 (should be a couple late reporters added)

apr 04 – 69
may 04 – 42

apr 05 – 43
may 05 – 58

apr 06 – 44
may 06 – 43

Also, inventory is significantly lower this year than last year which means buyers have fewers choices. Whether more inventory would produce more buyers or confuse buyers is unknown.

Have at it but I dont see the devastation you did.

[sdrealtor]

Thank you everyone for a nice civil exchange.

Rustico,
You are right on with my point regarding what would constitute a ‘big chunk about to be taken out of the market”. In my mind if something is about to happen, that’s the next 3 month time frame and certainly no more than 6 months. A 10% decline would be very substantial from the seller’s perspective. Of course, bearish buyer’s would only consider it a good start.

I dont think this market was ever affordable. When I bought my first home here very close to the bottom of the current cycle for around 200K, I felt like I had paid nearly 2X what I should have based upon from where I came. I didn’t come from Kansas either. I came from on of the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the country which was and continues to be well above the national averages.

[sdrealtor]

Thank you everyone for a nice civil exchange.

Rustico,
You are right on with my point regarding what would constitute a ‘big chunk about to be taken out of the market”. In my mind if something is about to happen, that’s the next 3 month time frame and certainly no more than 6 months. A 10% decline would be very substantial from the seller’s perspective. Of course, bearish buyer’s would only consider it a good start.

I dont think this market was ever affordable. When I bought my first home here very close to the bottom of the current cycle for around 200K, I felt like I had paid nearly 2X what I should have based upon from where I came. I didn’t come from Kansas either. I came from on of the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the country which was and continues to be well above the national averages.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Short sales 2,433 up from 2,369 last week! Increases are still steady.

WARNING: Bullish sign ahead-Proceed with caution. Last week I mentioned that this tends to be a big week for new listings and that next week’s report will be telling. Total SD County Listings 17,666 down from17,725. We havent seen a decline in quite some time particularly heading into a peak listing period. One bearish explanation might be that a bunch of listing expired on 5/31 and havent been re-entered. We should have more clarity on this next week.

A great story from the field. I took my son camping up in Idylwild this weekend. On the way we passed through some pretty rough areas in Hemet. I said something to effect that “This is a really ugly place” to which my son asked “What do you mean dad?” I responded that “This would not be a nice place to live” My 7 year old son came back very thoughtfully and sincerely with “The people that live here probably don’t feel that way, I’ll bet they love it here”. I was so impressed by his insight that it inspired me to be a nicer person in everything I do. What a great kid! I cant wait to send him out on the world someday.

[sdrealtor]

Update time!

Short sales 2,433 up from 2,369 last week! Increases are still steady.

WARNING: Bullish sign ahead-Proceed with caution. Last week I mentioned that this tends to be a big week for new listings and that next week’s report will be telling. Total SD County Listings 17,666 down from17,725. We havent seen a decline in quite some time particularly heading into a peak listing period. One bearish explanation might be that a bunch of listing expired on 5/31 and havent been re-entered. We should have more clarity on this next week.

A great story from the field. I took my son camping up in Idylwild this weekend. On the way we passed through some pretty rough areas in Hemet. I said something to effect that “This is a really ugly place” to which my son asked “What do you mean dad?” I responded that “This would not be a nice place to live” My 7 year old son came back very thoughtfully and sincerely with “The people that live here probably don’t feel that way, I’ll bet they love it here”. I was so impressed by his insight that it inspired me to be a nicer person in everything I do. What a great kid! I cant wait to send him out on the world someday.

[sdrealtor]

Rustico
You are not backtracking, you are taking a look at your opinions and it is healthy to challenge them. That is something I constantly do. I’m still stuck on this slow and steady thing. Regarding the big chunks of gains and consequently big chunks of losses, my feeling is that greed is a much more powerful and actionable emotion than fear. IMHO, greed compells people to chase risky opportunities while fear paralyzes them from making good decisions. I think you are onto something with the idea of a catalyst. Something that we dont see coming could certainly send the system in disarray.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Rustico
You are not backtracking, you are taking a look at your opinions and it is healthy to challenge them. That is something I constantly do. I’m still stuck on this slow and steady thing. Regarding the big chunks of gains and consequently big chunks of losses, my feeling is that greed is a much more powerful and actionable emotion than fear. IMHO, greed compells people to chase risky opportunities while fear paralyzes them from making good decisions. I think you are onto something with the idea of a catalyst. Something that we dont see coming could certainly send the system in disarray.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

I hear HGTV is recruiting

[sdrealtor]

I hear HGTV is recruiting

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