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sdrealtor
Participanthff,
Please read back on this thread until early Spring and you will see what happened. The MLS made a change in the software which removed properties without sq ft listed from the statistics function. longtime followers of this thread understand that the number we see for inventory is off by those properties. You can see the drop down occur on the Artifacts graphs. With that said, the short sales are not intended to be the number of short sales in the market either but rather the number of times the words “short sale” appear in the MLS.Whether the correct number is 19,000, 22,000 or even 25,000 is irrelevant here. What we are watching here is the change and the speed at which these two points are changing.
BTW, I love Artifacts new scaling of the data which put the short sale and inventory data in lock step for the last few months. It will make it much easier to identify the divergence of the two.
Participanthff,
Please read back on this thread until early Spring and you will see what happened. The MLS made a change in the software which removed properties without sq ft listed from the statistics function. longtime followers of this thread understand that the number we see for inventory is off by those properties. You can see the drop down occur on the Artifacts graphs. With that said, the short sales are not intended to be the number of short sales in the market either but rather the number of times the words “short sale” appear in the MLS.Whether the correct number is 19,000, 22,000 or even 25,000 is irrelevant here. What we are watching here is the change and the speed at which these two points are changing.
BTW, I love Artifacts new scaling of the data which put the short sale and inventory data in lock step for the last few months. It will make it much easier to identify the divergence of the two.
ParticipantUpdate time!
Sorry for the late update, I was doing some backcountry camping with my son and there isnt much in the way of Internet access out there. This update is as of today so the trend should be a little overstated as it includes 2 extra days of data.
Short sales 3,021 up from 2,825 last week! I said a little overstated not alot. That’s a big increase!
Countywide we are at 18,723 up from 18,456 last week. If the trend form last year holds true, we should be at peak inventory now or in the next couple weeks. This is something
to watch.The NC Coastal submarket is hanging tough. Actives and pendings are very stable. The one category taking it harder than the others is Condos in South Carlsbad.
ParticipantUpdate time!
Sorry for the late update, I was doing some backcountry camping with my son and there isnt much in the way of Internet access out there. This update is as of today so the trend should be a little overstated as it includes 2 extra days of data.
Short sales 3,021 up from 2,825 last week! I said a little overstated not alot. That’s a big increase!
Countywide we are at 18,723 up from 18,456 last week. If the trend form last year holds true, we should be at peak inventory now or in the next couple weeks. This is something
to watch.The NC Coastal submarket is hanging tough. Actives and pendings are very stable. The one category taking it harder than the others is Condos in South Carlsbad.
ParticipantTime to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)
6/28 to 7/4
new listings – 10
back on market – 4Total growth in inventory – 14
pendings – 5
expired – 8
withdrawn – 2
cancelled – 2Total decrease in inventory – 17
Net change in inventory – minus 3
Random thoughts
Inventory still trending down.
Pendings trending down (could be a Holiday effect)
15 homes closed and I noticed an interesting change. Most homes closed near the asking price or in the middle of the range (when ranges were used). This indicates that sellers might be getting more realistic in setting asking prices.
The attached market inventory was a net minus 15 this week.
ParticipantTime to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)
6/28 to 7/4
new listings – 10
back on market – 4Total growth in inventory – 14
pendings – 5
expired – 8
withdrawn – 2
cancelled – 2Total decrease in inventory – 17
Net change in inventory – minus 3
Random thoughts
Inventory still trending down.
Pendings trending down (could be a Holiday effect)
15 homes closed and I noticed an interesting change. Most homes closed near the asking price or in the middle of the range (when ranges were used). This indicates that sellers might be getting more realistic in setting asking prices.
The attached market inventory was a net minus 15 this week.
ParticipantJG,
I guss you nevr reed my posts as I nevr slf edit anythingParticipantJG,
I guss you nevr reed my posts as I nevr slf edit anythingParticipantNeighborhoods Considering: Encinitas beach cottage/teardown within 2 blocks of the beach on 5,000 sq ft lot preferably just North of Moonlight Beach
Condo/House: House
Price Range: up to $1M for the right property
Size Range: irrelevant
Currently (Rent/Own): Own
Shopping the Market?: Hell Yes and I’ll keep looking until I find it sometime in the next 20 years.
ParticipantNeighborhoods Considering: Encinitas beach cottage/teardown within 2 blocks of the beach on 5,000 sq ft lot preferably just North of Moonlight Beach
Condo/House: House
Price Range: up to $1M for the right property
Size Range: irrelevant
Currently (Rent/Own): Own
Shopping the Market?: Hell Yes and I’ll keep looking until I find it sometime in the next 20 years.
ParticipantI agree that the Bay Collection is wonderful and defintely worth a look. With that said there are a couple differences that are positives for Encinitas Ranch
Further South
Encinitas is essentially built out and has a sense of community/character/history that Carlsbad never will.
Golf Course AND Ocean View community
Quieter Location away from busy streets
Better School DistrictRegarding quality, most of what has hit the resale market on Lynwood in Encinitas Ranch were not the prime locations or well upgraded homes. Many were bought by speculators. Also, the big upgrade everything push didnt become the market standard when these homes were built. Buyer expectations have defintely risen. I have been in several Lynwood homes of longtime residents of the area who bought for the long haul and their homes are spectacular in every way.
On the other hand, every home In The Bay Collection that I have ever seen was highly upgrded.
ParticipantI agree that the Bay Collection is wonderful and defintely worth a look. With that said there are a couple differences that are positives for Encinitas Ranch
Further South
Encinitas is essentially built out and has a sense of community/character/history that Carlsbad never will.
Golf Course AND Ocean View community
Quieter Location away from busy streets
Better School DistrictRegarding quality, most of what has hit the resale market on Lynwood in Encinitas Ranch were not the prime locations or well upgraded homes. Many were bought by speculators. Also, the big upgrade everything push didnt become the market standard when these homes were built. Buyer expectations have defintely risen. I have been in several Lynwood homes of longtime residents of the area who bought for the long haul and their homes are spectacular in every way.
On the other hand, every home In The Bay Collection that I have ever seen was highly upgrded.
ParticipantOne quick tip that has helped me a lot. Pick a day and time to run the numbers to keep them as consistent as possible.
I run my submarket numbers (Active and Pendings only) as well as the Short Sale (actives) and SD County Inventory numbers (actives) every Monday after lunch. I do it this way because it is a snapshot in time.
For Carmel Valley, I am running a week to week comparison of what’s happening. In this case, I use the “days back” search and wait a day or two after the end of my tracking period to allow for some late reporting.
Cheers
ParticipantOne quick tip that has helped me a lot. Pick a day and time to run the numbers to keep them as consistent as possible.
I run my submarket numbers (Active and Pendings only) as well as the Short Sale (actives) and SD County Inventory numbers (actives) every Monday after lunch. I do it this way because it is a snapshot in time.
For Carmel Valley, I am running a week to week comparison of what’s happening. In this case, I use the “days back” search and wait a day or two after the end of my tracking period to allow for some late reporting.
Cheers
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