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sdrealtor
ParticipantSD R,
Thank you and I meant to thank you in writing but got sidetracked.Thanks again
sdr
Participantflu,
The frustration commnets were by SD R not me. I am the author of this thread and I dont get frustrated.I check the attached market from time to time and the active pending trend seems to be similar. However and it is a big HOWEVER, most of the sales seem to be in Andalucia. When they sell out, the market will probably get a little better for the resales.
BTW, that property was a big time short sale so it will be a long time before we know what happened. My guess is at least 60 days.
Participantflu,
The frustration commnets were by SD R not me. I am the author of this thread and I dont get frustrated.I check the attached market from time to time and the active pending trend seems to be similar. However and it is a big HOWEVER, most of the sales seem to be in Andalucia. When they sell out, the market will probably get a little better for the resales.
BTW, that property was a big time short sale so it will be a long time before we know what happened. My guess is at least 60 days.
ParticipantG,
I’m not sure exactly what your question is. If you could clarify more, I’ll do my best to answer. With that said, once the property reaches the right level it generally sells within 1 to 3% of asking price. Many properties start out way to high and it takes time to get them to where they should be.JJ,
That’s a tough one and one I’ve been trying to get my brain around also. My current hypothesis is that it will keep very low sales inventory and hence very low sales volume. This will create some pent up demand and many frustrated buyers unable to find anything worth buying. This could help keep the distress prices up for quite some time. If you look in those better areas there are still very few properties with NOD’s filed. Today’s NOD’s are potential REO’s in 9 to 12 months. This tells me, we are still a long ways from widespread REO sales along the coast at least 18 to 24 months IMO.It is defintely a bit of dilemma and one I havent figured out yet.
ParticipantG,
I’m not sure exactly what your question is. If you could clarify more, I’ll do my best to answer. With that said, once the property reaches the right level it generally sells within 1 to 3% of asking price. Many properties start out way to high and it takes time to get them to where they should be.JJ,
That’s a tough one and one I’ve been trying to get my brain around also. My current hypothesis is that it will keep very low sales inventory and hence very low sales volume. This will create some pent up demand and many frustrated buyers unable to find anything worth buying. This could help keep the distress prices up for quite some time. If you look in those better areas there are still very few properties with NOD’s filed. Today’s NOD’s are potential REO’s in 9 to 12 months. This tells me, we are still a long ways from widespread REO sales along the coast at least 18 to 24 months IMO.It is defintely a bit of dilemma and one I havent figured out yet.
July 22, 2007 at 8:56 AM in reply to: Help from Realtors: what’s my friend’s house worth now? #66936ParticipantTemecula Guy,
The flags need to be thrown on Bugs and SD Realtor.Here is the listing text from when it his friends bought it.
“Spacious, tastefully decorated 5BR/3BA home, largest floor plan in Creek Park. 1BR/full BA downstairs, cul de sac street, close to Carmel Del Mar Elem & CV Middle. Vaulted ceilings, skylights, upgraded tile, plush carpeting throughout. Kitchen/eating area opens into charming family room with fireplace.”
I see both 5 BEDROOMS and VAULTED Ceilings. The new property is definitely NOT markedly nicer and the current owners have put in substantial improvements per the vrud.
SD R also knows (maybe he doesnt and that would be sad) that many people looking for 5BR’s really want 4 BR’s and an office/den/guest room etc.
I’m penalizing both for Unsportsmanlike Conduct!
As for Bugs increasing trend challenge I think I can handle that one. While sales are sparse in this specific neighborhood, I will take a look at this general area of CV to see if there is enough data to show what has happened to prices of like for like properties.
July 22, 2007 at 8:56 AM in reply to: Help from Realtors: what’s my friend’s house worth now? #67000ParticipantTemecula Guy,
The flags need to be thrown on Bugs and SD Realtor.Here is the listing text from when it his friends bought it.
“Spacious, tastefully decorated 5BR/3BA home, largest floor plan in Creek Park. 1BR/full BA downstairs, cul de sac street, close to Carmel Del Mar Elem & CV Middle. Vaulted ceilings, skylights, upgraded tile, plush carpeting throughout. Kitchen/eating area opens into charming family room with fireplace.”
I see both 5 BEDROOMS and VAULTED Ceilings. The new property is definitely NOT markedly nicer and the current owners have put in substantial improvements per the vrud.
SD R also knows (maybe he doesnt and that would be sad) that many people looking for 5BR’s really want 4 BR’s and an office/den/guest room etc.
I’m penalizing both for Unsportsmanlike Conduct!
As for Bugs increasing trend challenge I think I can handle that one. While sales are sparse in this specific neighborhood, I will take a look at this general area of CV to see if there is enough data to show what has happened to prices of like for like properties.
Participantorry for the delay but it’s time to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)
7/12 to 7/18
new listings – 9
back on market – 1Total growth in inventory – 10
pendings – 15
expired – 3
withdrawn – 3
cancelled – 2Total decrease in inventory – 23
Net change in inventory – minus 13!!
Random thoughts
Inventory trending down. I started tracking actives in pendings about 1 year ago and have all the historical data on a weekly basis. The active listings are down over 50% while the pendings (In Escrow) are up 25%.
I believe the surge in pendings is from buyers running out of time with the start of the school year a month away. I also believe we are seeing homeowners digging in for the long haul as they are no longer willing to sell at current market prices. This should only increase and we will be come a market driven and dominated by distress sales.
Participantorry for the delay but it’s time to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)
7/12 to 7/18
new listings – 9
back on market – 1Total growth in inventory – 10
pendings – 15
expired – 3
withdrawn – 3
cancelled – 2Total decrease in inventory – 23
Net change in inventory – minus 13!!
Random thoughts
Inventory trending down. I started tracking actives in pendings about 1 year ago and have all the historical data on a weekly basis. The active listings are down over 50% while the pendings (In Escrow) are up 25%.
I believe the surge in pendings is from buyers running out of time with the start of the school year a month away. I also believe we are seeing homeowners digging in for the long haul as they are no longer willing to sell at current market prices. This should only increase and we will be come a market driven and dominated by distress sales.
July 21, 2007 at 8:30 PM in reply to: Help from Realtors: what’s my friend’s house worth now? #66890ParticipantRound One:
“There is a 5BR/3.5ba/3 car gar 3109 sf in escrow with a range of 950 to 1.05M after only 11 days. My guess would be $1M plus.”
House closed last week for $1,010,000.
I’ll give that round me.
BTW, The inventory of active listings in 92130 is less than half of what it was this time last year while pendings are up over 25%.
July 21, 2007 at 8:30 PM in reply to: Help from Realtors: what’s my friend’s house worth now? #66953ParticipantRound One:
“There is a 5BR/3.5ba/3 car gar 3109 sf in escrow with a range of 950 to 1.05M after only 11 days. My guess would be $1M plus.”
House closed last week for $1,010,000.
I’ll give that round me.
BTW, The inventory of active listings in 92130 is less than half of what it was this time last year while pendings are up over 25%.
ParticipantUpdate time!
Sorry for another late update, this time its a family reunion/vacation in So Florida to blame. This update is as of this morning so the trend should be ok as its a week after last weeks post. Next week will be a little thin with a 4 day week.
Short sales 3,180 up from 3,021! That’s another big increase from last week.
Countywide we are at 18,884 up from 18,723 last week. I thin we are at or close to peak inventory now. This is something to watch.
SEveral months ago I hypothesized on a theory I had and I believe it now more than ever. From here on out I expect that we will begin our shift into a distressed sale market. While this will be good for lowering prices, the news is not all good for buyers. Finding a nice house in a nice area will be very difficult from here on out. The best homes are owned by long time owners that can and will hold on IMHO. The homes bought in the run up by lemmings tend to range from average to well below average IMHO. I expect to see many decisions made on price alone which will leave lots of folks living in mediocre properties. There will be some gems on the market but they will get harder and harder to find.
I have several clients looking for properties and it has been a real struggle to find something they liked. It aint gonna get easier.
ParticipantUpdate time!
Sorry for another late update, this time its a family reunion/vacation in So Florida to blame. This update is as of this morning so the trend should be ok as its a week after last weeks post. Next week will be a little thin with a 4 day week.
Short sales 3,180 up from 3,021! That’s another big increase from last week.
Countywide we are at 18,884 up from 18,723 last week. I thin we are at or close to peak inventory now. This is something to watch.
SEveral months ago I hypothesized on a theory I had and I believe it now more than ever. From here on out I expect that we will begin our shift into a distressed sale market. While this will be good for lowering prices, the news is not all good for buyers. Finding a nice house in a nice area will be very difficult from here on out. The best homes are owned by long time owners that can and will hold on IMHO. The homes bought in the run up by lemmings tend to range from average to well below average IMHO. I expect to see many decisions made on price alone which will leave lots of folks living in mediocre properties. There will be some gems on the market but they will get harder and harder to find.
I have several clients looking for properties and it has been a real struggle to find something they liked. It aint gonna get easier.
ParticipantSorry for the delay but it’s time to update everyone’s favorite bellweather;)
7/5 to 7/11
new listings – 11
back on market – 2Total growth in inventory – 13
pendings – 11
expired – 2
withdrawn – 3
cancelled – 3Total decrease in inventory – 19
Net change in inventory – minus 6
Random thoughts
Inventory still trending down.
From another thread we (Bugs, myself and SD R) were debating the market value of a home in the heart of CV. The heart of CV is the area surrounding Del Mar Heights Road and does not include Torrey Hills south of 56 or the newer homes to the east in Pacific Highlands Ranch and beyond. I ran a quick check for homes in its class -at least 2000 sq ft and 4BR’s under $1M (if a range was used I took the midpoint of the range). Here is what I found:
1 home for sale which is a 4br/2.5ba/3car/2500 sq ft rental property for 970K to 995K (there was 1 more priced at 999,500 to 1.05M which just missed). Thats all!
7 homes are in escrow of which 4 sold in 2 weeks or less.
In the last 30 days there have been 7 closed sales there. The average down payment was 157K. The smallest downpayment was 5% (50K) and there were 2 with 10% down (75K and 95K). The remaining 4 buyers put down between 175K and 310K.
I’m pretty comfortable with my price opinion.
The attached market inventory was a net minus 6 this week howevewr most of the activity is in Andalucia which seems to be selling about 10 homes per week.
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