[sdnerd]

Agree I am young; not much I can do to change that. Would actually prefer to stop aging, but suspect that’s out of my control. 🙂 But what exactly am I supposed to learn? Nobody can predict the future or how good or bad things will get.

Older generations have a higher tendency of doom & gloom based on past history. Understandable, and maybe that is what’s coming.

Both my wife and I are steadily employed and have been for a long time. Monthly expenses total about ~$2k. Household income between $150-200k/yr, last year significantly better. We’ve been stockpiling cash for a long time.

I also own a profitable side business, where I re-invest all the profits.

Company I work for can’t hire fast enough. I have job openings I can’t fill. Local companies poaching from us – job market is strong. There are a lot of people making a ton of money.

Apple iFund announcement the other day, $100 million VC fund despite all the bad market news.

5-6 years of musical chairs with housing, everyone left holding the bag gets creamed. Everyone else was making 20% profits.

So yes there are a lot of janitors out there who shouldn’t have bought houses and are going to lose them. And there are also a LOT of 20-30 year olds who’ve had 6 figure incomes the last 8 years and have been renting, living at home, or doing what I’ve done. Most of the ones I know want to buy, once the prices drop down.

So yes, absolutely everything could come crashing down. All the jobs could move out of San Diego, and housing could crash down to 30% of what it costs today. Or the US could have a complete financial collapse. Plenty of scenarios you could write up.

I don’t think San Diego will become a ghost town anytime soon.

I’m not saying housing is going to turn around. I suspect a heavy price cut followed by a long flat period. But once the #s start to pencil out, I do see a lot of pent up demand buying in not as an investment, but to have a home.

That’s just what I see around me down here in the trenches of youth. 🙂

[sdnerd]

Re: patiently

In my world, based on the people I know and the conversations I hear – I disagree. There is significant demand outside of sites like this.

All the 20 & 30 year olds, and everyone else who found themselves priced out of the market have been saving up. Fast forward 5-6 years, and many of those people have saved up down payments & are making a lot more money. A lot of people are having kids, and raising families.

Prices are falling, rates are still low, and there are going to be a lot of great opportunities to buy.

If young people were going to move back to the mid-west, they would have already done so. It’s always been cheaper there, nothing has changed. They didn’t however – they got roomates, lived at homed, they saved up.

And I think many of them (myself included) are going to be buying homes at very discounted prices, with very large down payments over the next few years.

People want to live in San Diego, and people who run their companies want them to be here & places like Silicon Valley, etc. Good luck getting VC funding with a company based in Idaho vs. San Francisco.

That’s just IMHO though. I’m under 30, so that’s the general age bracket I tend to associate with most often.

[sdnerd]

Re: patiently

In my world, based on the people I know and the conversations I hear – I disagree. There is significant demand outside of sites like this.

All the 20 & 30 year olds, and everyone else who found themselves priced out of the market have been saving up. Fast forward 5-6 years, and many of those people have saved up down payments & are making a lot more money. A lot of people are having kids, and raising families.

Prices are falling, rates are still low, and there are going to be a lot of great opportunities to buy.

If young people were going to move back to the mid-west, they would have already done so. It’s always been cheaper there, nothing has changed. They didn’t however – they got roomates, lived at homed, they saved up.

And I think many of them (myself included) are going to be buying homes at very discounted prices, with very large down payments over the next few years.

People want to live in San Diego, and people who run their companies want them to be here & places like Silicon Valley, etc. Good luck getting VC funding with a company based in Idaho vs. San Francisco.

That’s just IMHO though. I’m under 30, so that’s the general age bracket I tend to associate with most often.

[sdnerd]

Re: patiently

In my world, based on the people I know and the conversations I hear – I disagree. There is significant demand outside of sites like this.

All the 20 & 30 year olds, and everyone else who found themselves priced out of the market have been saving up. Fast forward 5-6 years, and many of those people have saved up down payments & are making a lot more money. A lot of people are having kids, and raising families.

Prices are falling, rates are still low, and there are going to be a lot of great opportunities to buy.

If young people were going to move back to the mid-west, they would have already done so. It’s always been cheaper there, nothing has changed. They didn’t however – they got roomates, lived at homed, they saved up.

And I think many of them (myself included) are going to be buying homes at very discounted prices, with very large down payments over the next few years.

People want to live in San Diego, and people who run their companies want them to be here & places like Silicon Valley, etc. Good luck getting VC funding with a company based in Idaho vs. San Francisco.

That’s just IMHO though. I’m under 30, so that’s the general age bracket I tend to associate with most often.

[sdnerd]

Re: patiently

In my world, based on the people I know and the conversations I hear – I disagree. There is significant demand outside of sites like this.

All the 20 & 30 year olds, and everyone else who found themselves priced out of the market have been saving up. Fast forward 5-6 years, and many of those people have saved up down payments & are making a lot more money. A lot of people are having kids, and raising families.

Prices are falling, rates are still low, and there are going to be a lot of great opportunities to buy.

If young people were going to move back to the mid-west, they would have already done so. It’s always been cheaper there, nothing has changed. They didn’t however – they got roomates, lived at homed, they saved up.

And I think many of them (myself included) are going to be buying homes at very discounted prices, with very large down payments over the next few years.

People want to live in San Diego, and people who run their companies want them to be here & places like Silicon Valley, etc. Good luck getting VC funding with a company based in Idaho vs. San Francisco.

That’s just IMHO though. I’m under 30, so that’s the general age bracket I tend to associate with most often.

[sdnerd]

Re: patiently

In my world, based on the people I know and the conversations I hear – I disagree. There is significant demand outside of sites like this.

All the 20 & 30 year olds, and everyone else who found themselves priced out of the market have been saving up. Fast forward 5-6 years, and many of those people have saved up down payments & are making a lot more money. A lot of people are having kids, and raising families.

Prices are falling, rates are still low, and there are going to be a lot of great opportunities to buy.

If young people were going to move back to the mid-west, they would have already done so. It’s always been cheaper there, nothing has changed. They didn’t however – they got roomates, lived at homed, they saved up.

And I think many of them (myself included) are going to be buying homes at very discounted prices, with very large down payments over the next few years.

People want to live in San Diego, and people who run their companies want them to be here & places like Silicon Valley, etc. Good luck getting VC funding with a company based in Idaho vs. San Francisco.

That’s just IMHO though. I’m under 30, so that’s the general age bracket I tend to associate with most often.

[sdnerd]

Yeah going South is never an issue; going North is just painful.

I know several people with kids who do rent 2 bedrooms in that area. I get the impression there aren’t many other options if you want in that school district or to live in that area. There aren’t many older areas and all the surrounding houses are $800-$1mil+ so rental options are somewhat limited.

That’s my 2nd hand impression FWIW.

[sdnerd]

Yeah going South is never an issue; going North is just painful.

I know several people with kids who do rent 2 bedrooms in that area. I get the impression there aren’t many other options if you want in that school district or to live in that area. There aren’t many older areas and all the surrounding houses are $800-$1mil+ so rental options are somewhat limited.

That’s my 2nd hand impression FWIW.

[sdnerd]

Yeah going South is never an issue; going North is just painful.

I know several people with kids who do rent 2 bedrooms in that area. I get the impression there aren’t many other options if you want in that school district or to live in that area. There aren’t many older areas and all the surrounding houses are $800-$1mil+ so rental options are somewhat limited.

That’s my 2nd hand impression FWIW.

[sdnerd]

Yeah going South is never an issue; going North is just painful.

I know several people with kids who do rent 2 bedrooms in that area. I get the impression there aren’t many other options if you want in that school district or to live in that area. There aren’t many older areas and all the surrounding houses are $800-$1mil+ so rental options are somewhat limited.

That’s my 2nd hand impression FWIW.

[sdnerd]

Yeah going South is never an issue; going North is just painful.

I know several people with kids who do rent 2 bedrooms in that area. I get the impression there aren’t many other options if you want in that school district or to live in that area. There aren’t many older areas and all the surrounding houses are $800-$1mil+ so rental options are somewhat limited.

That’s my 2nd hand impression FWIW.

[sdnerd]

Re: jpinpb

No, I honestly don’t believe there have been massive layoffs in this area. Real estate jobs in general, absolutely – and we will all feel the trickle effect as a result.

However, I think it’s safe to say there aren’t too many plumbers living in Fairbanks Ranch. This particular pocket area is very heavy into Tech and BioTech companies and right now many of the big players are still hiring left and right.

Until I see Qualcomm, Intuit, or any of the other big guns around here swinging the axe heavily I think rents will hold up quite strong here. Especially as home sales keep falling off a cliff – and the renter pool keeps growing.

As gas moves up to $4-5/gallon and pocket books tighten. People are going to want to live closer to work. And as long as this area is heavy in jobs, I just don’t see 2 bedroom units renting for $1,000/mo. It’s a 2-5 minute drive to just about any of the big companies in the area, close enough you could ride your bike if you wanted.

I’m of the same mindset as those who believe after the dust settles (with major price cuts), the downtown condos will be good long term buys. And that areas like CV will hold out the longest & the strongest and ultimately will not see 60% price chops but rather will take a hit then stay flat for a long time. Now places like Murrieta, etc….

Of course I could be completely wrong. Too many variables, too many unknowns until it all plays out.

[sdnerd]

Re: jpinpb

No, I honestly don’t believe there have been massive layoffs in this area. Real estate jobs in general, absolutely – and we will all feel the trickle effect as a result.

However, I think it’s safe to say there aren’t too many plumbers living in Fairbanks Ranch. This particular pocket area is very heavy into Tech and BioTech companies and right now many of the big players are still hiring left and right.

Until I see Qualcomm, Intuit, or any of the other big guns around here swinging the axe heavily I think rents will hold up quite strong here. Especially as home sales keep falling off a cliff – and the renter pool keeps growing.

As gas moves up to $4-5/gallon and pocket books tighten. People are going to want to live closer to work. And as long as this area is heavy in jobs, I just don’t see 2 bedroom units renting for $1,000/mo. It’s a 2-5 minute drive to just about any of the big companies in the area, close enough you could ride your bike if you wanted.

I’m of the same mindset as those who believe after the dust settles (with major price cuts), the downtown condos will be good long term buys. And that areas like CV will hold out the longest & the strongest and ultimately will not see 60% price chops but rather will take a hit then stay flat for a long time. Now places like Murrieta, etc….

Of course I could be completely wrong. Too many variables, too many unknowns until it all plays out.

[sdnerd]

Re: jpinpb

No, I honestly don’t believe there have been massive layoffs in this area. Real estate jobs in general, absolutely – and we will all feel the trickle effect as a result.

However, I think it’s safe to say there aren’t too many plumbers living in Fairbanks Ranch. This particular pocket area is very heavy into Tech and BioTech companies and right now many of the big players are still hiring left and right.

Until I see Qualcomm, Intuit, or any of the other big guns around here swinging the axe heavily I think rents will hold up quite strong here. Especially as home sales keep falling off a cliff – and the renter pool keeps growing.

As gas moves up to $4-5/gallon and pocket books tighten. People are going to want to live closer to work. And as long as this area is heavy in jobs, I just don’t see 2 bedroom units renting for $1,000/mo. It’s a 2-5 minute drive to just about any of the big companies in the area, close enough you could ride your bike if you wanted.

I’m of the same mindset as those who believe after the dust settles (with major price cuts), the downtown condos will be good long term buys. And that areas like CV will hold out the longest & the strongest and ultimately will not see 60% price chops but rather will take a hit then stay flat for a long time. Now places like Murrieta, etc….

Of course I could be completely wrong. Too many variables, too many unknowns until it all plays out.

[sdnerd]

Re: jpinpb

No, I honestly don’t believe there have been massive layoffs in this area. Real estate jobs in general, absolutely – and we will all feel the trickle effect as a result.

However, I think it’s safe to say there aren’t too many plumbers living in Fairbanks Ranch. This particular pocket area is very heavy into Tech and BioTech companies and right now many of the big players are still hiring left and right.

Until I see Qualcomm, Intuit, or any of the other big guns around here swinging the axe heavily I think rents will hold up quite strong here. Especially as home sales keep falling off a cliff – and the renter pool keeps growing.

As gas moves up to $4-5/gallon and pocket books tighten. People are going to want to live closer to work. And as long as this area is heavy in jobs, I just don’t see 2 bedroom units renting for $1,000/mo. It’s a 2-5 minute drive to just about any of the big companies in the area, close enough you could ride your bike if you wanted.

I’m of the same mindset as those who believe after the dust settles (with major price cuts), the downtown condos will be good long term buys. And that areas like CV will hold out the longest & the strongest and ultimately will not see 60% price chops but rather will take a hit then stay flat for a long time. Now places like Murrieta, etc….

Of course I could be completely wrong. Too many variables, too many unknowns until it all plays out.

[Author]

Posts