[sdnerd]

Breeze:

I wish you had made that post to begin with, it lends to a much better discussion.

I agree.

As I originally stated, I think that Lucera unit is going to fall further. Breaking the $200k price point is big – there is disagreement as to how much further they could fall. I believe only another 10-20% (putting them in the 50-60% off since the top) range.

After that point, the #s start penciling out IMHO where it does start to get attractive.

This area has a lot of job density; so long as that remains I believe rents here will stay strong. Especially as gas goes to $4-5/gal.

(People who commute from Murrieta, etc…. feeling for them)

[sdnerd]

Ex-SD: I wasn’t referring to your post.

I agree with what you are saying, and it’s mostly in line with my viewpoint to begin with. I’m not sure where this idea that I think housing or job markets are going to improve is coming from. I don’t believe I’ve ever made that claim.

My original stance was that in areas that are in high demand, there is strong job concentration, etc rents will hold the strongest, and there will be demand.

Whether it’s knife catchers, people with too much money, people who saved up a lot and just want the house, or whatever – I think the nicer areas will be bought up as prices *FALL* (repeating it so there is no confusion here) and the #s pencil out.

The perception by some of the posters is that there is no demand, no saved up money, and everyone will want to rent for the next 10+ years. Sans a complete meltdown, I disagree.

[sdnerd]

Ex-SD: I wasn’t referring to your post.

I agree with what you are saying, and it’s mostly in line with my viewpoint to begin with. I’m not sure where this idea that I think housing or job markets are going to improve is coming from. I don’t believe I’ve ever made that claim.

My original stance was that in areas that are in high demand, there is strong job concentration, etc rents will hold the strongest, and there will be demand.

Whether it’s knife catchers, people with too much money, people who saved up a lot and just want the house, or whatever – I think the nicer areas will be bought up as prices *FALL* (repeating it so there is no confusion here) and the #s pencil out.

The perception by some of the posters is that there is no demand, no saved up money, and everyone will want to rent for the next 10+ years. Sans a complete meltdown, I disagree.

[sdnerd]

Ex-SD: I wasn’t referring to your post.

I agree with what you are saying, and it’s mostly in line with my viewpoint to begin with. I’m not sure where this idea that I think housing or job markets are going to improve is coming from. I don’t believe I’ve ever made that claim.

My original stance was that in areas that are in high demand, there is strong job concentration, etc rents will hold the strongest, and there will be demand.

Whether it’s knife catchers, people with too much money, people who saved up a lot and just want the house, or whatever – I think the nicer areas will be bought up as prices *FALL* (repeating it so there is no confusion here) and the #s pencil out.

The perception by some of the posters is that there is no demand, no saved up money, and everyone will want to rent for the next 10+ years. Sans a complete meltdown, I disagree.

[sdnerd]

Ex-SD: I wasn’t referring to your post.

I agree with what you are saying, and it’s mostly in line with my viewpoint to begin with. I’m not sure where this idea that I think housing or job markets are going to improve is coming from. I don’t believe I’ve ever made that claim.

My original stance was that in areas that are in high demand, there is strong job concentration, etc rents will hold the strongest, and there will be demand.

Whether it’s knife catchers, people with too much money, people who saved up a lot and just want the house, or whatever – I think the nicer areas will be bought up as prices *FALL* (repeating it so there is no confusion here) and the #s pencil out.

The perception by some of the posters is that there is no demand, no saved up money, and everyone will want to rent for the next 10+ years. Sans a complete meltdown, I disagree.

[sdnerd]

Ex-SD: I wasn’t referring to your post.

I agree with what you are saying, and it’s mostly in line with my viewpoint to begin with. I’m not sure where this idea that I think housing or job markets are going to improve is coming from. I don’t believe I’ve ever made that claim.

My original stance was that in areas that are in high demand, there is strong job concentration, etc rents will hold the strongest, and there will be demand.

Whether it’s knife catchers, people with too much money, people who saved up a lot and just want the house, or whatever – I think the nicer areas will be bought up as prices *FALL* (repeating it so there is no confusion here) and the #s pencil out.

The perception by some of the posters is that there is no demand, no saved up money, and everyone will want to rent for the next 10+ years. Sans a complete meltdown, I disagree.

[sdnerd]

Trolling a thread and throwing insults is a great way to debate a subject. Congratulations on that.

If you bothered to actually read the discussion, you might have something useful to say.

I *DO* believe SD pricing is going to fall a lot more. Nowhere have I said it’s not going to, or that it couldn’t happen to me – not once.

Based on what I’m seeing in the local economy, and in the job sector of where I work, as of right now I am not too concerned. Of course that could change. All signs right now do point to things getting real bad this year – how bad, nobody knows. This could be short, it could be long. Nobody here has the answer.

The only thing I have said is I believe the lower end has taken a large percentage of the hits it’s going to take. And I believe it’s now going to start working it’s way up into the more expensive neighborhoods.

Dual income of 150k is 2 mid level employees. Give me a break on the e-balling comment. I’m simply stating that there is a large # of younger employees out there making decent salaries, having families, and who want homes. If I hit a touchy subject for your family, it was not intentional. It’s a data point to base further discussion.

If you think that’s not the case, and you think nobody is ever going to want to buy again, and that everyone is going to poor out of San Diego – that’s fine, but please state your argument for that position.

[sdnerd]

Trolling a thread and throwing insults is a great way to debate a subject. Congratulations on that.

If you bothered to actually read the discussion, you might have something useful to say.

I *DO* believe SD pricing is going to fall a lot more. Nowhere have I said it’s not going to, or that it couldn’t happen to me – not once.

Based on what I’m seeing in the local economy, and in the job sector of where I work, as of right now I am not too concerned. Of course that could change. All signs right now do point to things getting real bad this year – how bad, nobody knows. This could be short, it could be long. Nobody here has the answer.

The only thing I have said is I believe the lower end has taken a large percentage of the hits it’s going to take. And I believe it’s now going to start working it’s way up into the more expensive neighborhoods.

Dual income of 150k is 2 mid level employees. Give me a break on the e-balling comment. I’m simply stating that there is a large # of younger employees out there making decent salaries, having families, and who want homes. If I hit a touchy subject for your family, it was not intentional. It’s a data point to base further discussion.

If you think that’s not the case, and you think nobody is ever going to want to buy again, and that everyone is going to poor out of San Diego – that’s fine, but please state your argument for that position.

[sdnerd]

Trolling a thread and throwing insults is a great way to debate a subject. Congratulations on that.

If you bothered to actually read the discussion, you might have something useful to say.

I *DO* believe SD pricing is going to fall a lot more. Nowhere have I said it’s not going to, or that it couldn’t happen to me – not once.

Based on what I’m seeing in the local economy, and in the job sector of where I work, as of right now I am not too concerned. Of course that could change. All signs right now do point to things getting real bad this year – how bad, nobody knows. This could be short, it could be long. Nobody here has the answer.

The only thing I have said is I believe the lower end has taken a large percentage of the hits it’s going to take. And I believe it’s now going to start working it’s way up into the more expensive neighborhoods.

Dual income of 150k is 2 mid level employees. Give me a break on the e-balling comment. I’m simply stating that there is a large # of younger employees out there making decent salaries, having families, and who want homes. If I hit a touchy subject for your family, it was not intentional. It’s a data point to base further discussion.

If you think that’s not the case, and you think nobody is ever going to want to buy again, and that everyone is going to poor out of San Diego – that’s fine, but please state your argument for that position.

[sdnerd]

Trolling a thread and throwing insults is a great way to debate a subject. Congratulations on that.

If you bothered to actually read the discussion, you might have something useful to say.

I *DO* believe SD pricing is going to fall a lot more. Nowhere have I said it’s not going to, or that it couldn’t happen to me – not once.

Based on what I’m seeing in the local economy, and in the job sector of where I work, as of right now I am not too concerned. Of course that could change. All signs right now do point to things getting real bad this year – how bad, nobody knows. This could be short, it could be long. Nobody here has the answer.

The only thing I have said is I believe the lower end has taken a large percentage of the hits it’s going to take. And I believe it’s now going to start working it’s way up into the more expensive neighborhoods.

Dual income of 150k is 2 mid level employees. Give me a break on the e-balling comment. I’m simply stating that there is a large # of younger employees out there making decent salaries, having families, and who want homes. If I hit a touchy subject for your family, it was not intentional. It’s a data point to base further discussion.

If you think that’s not the case, and you think nobody is ever going to want to buy again, and that everyone is going to poor out of San Diego – that’s fine, but please state your argument for that position.

[sdnerd]

Trolling a thread and throwing insults is a great way to debate a subject. Congratulations on that.

If you bothered to actually read the discussion, you might have something useful to say.

I *DO* believe SD pricing is going to fall a lot more. Nowhere have I said it’s not going to, or that it couldn’t happen to me – not once.

Based on what I’m seeing in the local economy, and in the job sector of where I work, as of right now I am not too concerned. Of course that could change. All signs right now do point to things getting real bad this year – how bad, nobody knows. This could be short, it could be long. Nobody here has the answer.

The only thing I have said is I believe the lower end has taken a large percentage of the hits it’s going to take. And I believe it’s now going to start working it’s way up into the more expensive neighborhoods.

Dual income of 150k is 2 mid level employees. Give me a break on the e-balling comment. I’m simply stating that there is a large # of younger employees out there making decent salaries, having families, and who want homes. If I hit a touchy subject for your family, it was not intentional. It’s a data point to base further discussion.

If you think that’s not the case, and you think nobody is ever going to want to buy again, and that everyone is going to poor out of San Diego – that’s fine, but please state your argument for that position.

[sdnerd]

Agree I am young; not much I can do to change that. Would actually prefer to stop aging, but suspect that’s out of my control. 🙂 But what exactly am I supposed to learn? Nobody can predict the future or how good or bad things will get.

Older generations have a higher tendency of doom & gloom based on past history. Understandable, and maybe that is what’s coming.

Both my wife and I are steadily employed and have been for a long time. Monthly expenses total about ~$2k. Household income between $150-200k/yr, last year significantly better. We’ve been stockpiling cash for a long time.

I also own a profitable side business, where I re-invest all the profits.

Company I work for can’t hire fast enough. I have job openings I can’t fill. Local companies poaching from us – job market is strong. There are a lot of people making a ton of money.

Apple iFund announcement the other day, $100 million VC fund despite all the bad market news.

5-6 years of musical chairs with housing, everyone left holding the bag gets creamed. Everyone else was making 20% profits.

So yes there are a lot of janitors out there who shouldn’t have bought houses and are going to lose them. And there are also a LOT of 20-30 year olds who’ve had 6 figure incomes the last 8 years and have been renting, living at home, or doing what I’ve done. Most of the ones I know want to buy, once the prices drop down.

So yes, absolutely everything could come crashing down. All the jobs could move out of San Diego, and housing could crash down to 30% of what it costs today. Or the US could have a complete financial collapse. Plenty of scenarios you could write up.

I don’t think San Diego will become a ghost town anytime soon.

I’m not saying housing is going to turn around. I suspect a heavy price cut followed by a long flat period. But once the #s start to pencil out, I do see a lot of pent up demand buying in not as an investment, but to have a home.

That’s just what I see around me down here in the trenches of youth. 🙂

[sdnerd]

Agree I am young; not much I can do to change that. Would actually prefer to stop aging, but suspect that’s out of my control. 🙂 But what exactly am I supposed to learn? Nobody can predict the future or how good or bad things will get.

Older generations have a higher tendency of doom & gloom based on past history. Understandable, and maybe that is what’s coming.

Both my wife and I are steadily employed and have been for a long time. Monthly expenses total about ~$2k. Household income between $150-200k/yr, last year significantly better. We’ve been stockpiling cash for a long time.

I also own a profitable side business, where I re-invest all the profits.

Company I work for can’t hire fast enough. I have job openings I can’t fill. Local companies poaching from us – job market is strong. There are a lot of people making a ton of money.

Apple iFund announcement the other day, $100 million VC fund despite all the bad market news.

5-6 years of musical chairs with housing, everyone left holding the bag gets creamed. Everyone else was making 20% profits.

So yes there are a lot of janitors out there who shouldn’t have bought houses and are going to lose them. And there are also a LOT of 20-30 year olds who’ve had 6 figure incomes the last 8 years and have been renting, living at home, or doing what I’ve done. Most of the ones I know want to buy, once the prices drop down.

So yes, absolutely everything could come crashing down. All the jobs could move out of San Diego, and housing could crash down to 30% of what it costs today. Or the US could have a complete financial collapse. Plenty of scenarios you could write up.

I don’t think San Diego will become a ghost town anytime soon.

I’m not saying housing is going to turn around. I suspect a heavy price cut followed by a long flat period. But once the #s start to pencil out, I do see a lot of pent up demand buying in not as an investment, but to have a home.

That’s just what I see around me down here in the trenches of youth. 🙂

[sdnerd]

Agree I am young; not much I can do to change that. Would actually prefer to stop aging, but suspect that’s out of my control. 🙂 But what exactly am I supposed to learn? Nobody can predict the future or how good or bad things will get.

Older generations have a higher tendency of doom & gloom based on past history. Understandable, and maybe that is what’s coming.

Both my wife and I are steadily employed and have been for a long time. Monthly expenses total about ~$2k. Household income between $150-200k/yr, last year significantly better. We’ve been stockpiling cash for a long time.

I also own a profitable side business, where I re-invest all the profits.

Company I work for can’t hire fast enough. I have job openings I can’t fill. Local companies poaching from us – job market is strong. There are a lot of people making a ton of money.

Apple iFund announcement the other day, $100 million VC fund despite all the bad market news.

5-6 years of musical chairs with housing, everyone left holding the bag gets creamed. Everyone else was making 20% profits.

So yes there are a lot of janitors out there who shouldn’t have bought houses and are going to lose them. And there are also a LOT of 20-30 year olds who’ve had 6 figure incomes the last 8 years and have been renting, living at home, or doing what I’ve done. Most of the ones I know want to buy, once the prices drop down.

So yes, absolutely everything could come crashing down. All the jobs could move out of San Diego, and housing could crash down to 30% of what it costs today. Or the US could have a complete financial collapse. Plenty of scenarios you could write up.

I don’t think San Diego will become a ghost town anytime soon.

I’m not saying housing is going to turn around. I suspect a heavy price cut followed by a long flat period. But once the #s start to pencil out, I do see a lot of pent up demand buying in not as an investment, but to have a home.

That’s just what I see around me down here in the trenches of youth. 🙂

[sdnerd]

Agree I am young; not much I can do to change that. Would actually prefer to stop aging, but suspect that’s out of my control. 🙂 But what exactly am I supposed to learn? Nobody can predict the future or how good or bad things will get.

Older generations have a higher tendency of doom & gloom based on past history. Understandable, and maybe that is what’s coming.

Both my wife and I are steadily employed and have been for a long time. Monthly expenses total about ~$2k. Household income between $150-200k/yr, last year significantly better. We’ve been stockpiling cash for a long time.

I also own a profitable side business, where I re-invest all the profits.

Company I work for can’t hire fast enough. I have job openings I can’t fill. Local companies poaching from us – job market is strong. There are a lot of people making a ton of money.

Apple iFund announcement the other day, $100 million VC fund despite all the bad market news.

5-6 years of musical chairs with housing, everyone left holding the bag gets creamed. Everyone else was making 20% profits.

So yes there are a lot of janitors out there who shouldn’t have bought houses and are going to lose them. And there are also a LOT of 20-30 year olds who’ve had 6 figure incomes the last 8 years and have been renting, living at home, or doing what I’ve done. Most of the ones I know want to buy, once the prices drop down.

So yes, absolutely everything could come crashing down. All the jobs could move out of San Diego, and housing could crash down to 30% of what it costs today. Or the US could have a complete financial collapse. Plenty of scenarios you could write up.

I don’t think San Diego will become a ghost town anytime soon.

I’m not saying housing is going to turn around. I suspect a heavy price cut followed by a long flat period. But once the #s start to pencil out, I do see a lot of pent up demand buying in not as an investment, but to have a home.

That’s just what I see around me down here in the trenches of youth. 🙂

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