[SDEngineer]

[quote=Rt.66]”Most dismiss the idea that America could suffer the same fate as Japan, but some of the differences are overstated. For example, some claim that Japan’s bubble was much bigger than America’s. Yet average house prices nationwide rose by 90% in America between 2000 and 2006, compared with a gain of 51% in Japan between 1985 and early 1991, when Japanese home prices peaked.”

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=11964819

From a housing price stand piont, WE are in MUCH worse shape than Japan was.[/quote]

The particular chart used by the Economist in this is misleading. They use US housing prices, but they compare against Japan’s LAND prices (and land prices in Japan were, due to it being rather in short supply there, already sky high before the bubble).

This set of charts gives a much better overview of exactly how high Japan’s HOUSING prices got at the peak:

Comparing the US and Japanese Housing Bubbles

[SDEngineer]

I believe most of the time for investors to consider it a good “opportunity” you need to have at least a 30% cashflow in the unit (to cover the expected higher maintenance associated with rentals as well as vacancy times, any rent incentives (especially in todays market), etc). Still, I think there’s a lot of places that are getting close to that mark. These might be some of them.

[SDEngineer]

I believe most of the time for investors to consider it a good “opportunity” you need to have at least a 30% cashflow in the unit (to cover the expected higher maintenance associated with rentals as well as vacancy times, any rent incentives (especially in todays market), etc). Still, I think there’s a lot of places that are getting close to that mark. These might be some of them.

[SDEngineer]

I believe most of the time for investors to consider it a good “opportunity” you need to have at least a 30% cashflow in the unit (to cover the expected higher maintenance associated with rentals as well as vacancy times, any rent incentives (especially in todays market), etc). Still, I think there’s a lot of places that are getting close to that mark. These might be some of them.

[SDEngineer]

I believe most of the time for investors to consider it a good “opportunity” you need to have at least a 30% cashflow in the unit (to cover the expected higher maintenance associated with rentals as well as vacancy times, any rent incentives (especially in todays market), etc). Still, I think there’s a lot of places that are getting close to that mark. These might be some of them.

[SDEngineer]

I believe most of the time for investors to consider it a good “opportunity” you need to have at least a 30% cashflow in the unit (to cover the expected higher maintenance associated with rentals as well as vacancy times, any rent incentives (especially in todays market), etc). Still, I think there’s a lot of places that are getting close to that mark. These might be some of them.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=afx114][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]You would be amazed what sitting down with someone over a period of hours or days can produce in terms of useful intelligence.[/quote]

Forgive me if I am wrong, but didn’t Saddam reveal some stuff to his guards after months of being buddy-buddy with them? What we should do with suspected terrorists is throw back a few beers with them, play some Lego Star Wars, break the ice, and shoot the shit — who knows what they might reveal.
[/quote]

Even the Nazi’s knew this was the most effective form of gathering useful information from a prisoner. Their best interrogators never used torture, nor did they threaten the use of torture. They essentially used the Copenhagen Syndrome to get the prisoners to tell them willingly what they wanted to know, and ALL of what they wanted to know. A cooperative prisoner is much more useful than an uncooperative one.

Over a prolonged period of time, I don’t even think the most radical extremist would be able to hold out under this method. You can essentially “deprogram” them at your leisure. And I’m pretty sure that any extremist hard core enough to resist this would be equally difficult to break via torture.

Using torture is counterproductive. The prisoner being tortured is constantly reminded of why they despise the torturer (and by extension the country employing them), and will simply tell the torturer enough to get them to stop – and that will be whatever the torturer wants to hear – not the truth, and certainly not the whole truth.

The only situation I could see torture being even remotely useful for is in the “Ticking Time Bomb” situation – and even then, it’s only because there is no time to do anything else – it’s not because the information gained is reliable. And frankly, I agree with the people above – in that incredibly rare scenario, you might be able to justify breaking the law, but it doesn’t justify crafting the law around that scenario and assuming that that scenario is a common one (frankly, I don’t know if that scenario has ever actually occurred).

[SDEngineer]

[quote=afx114][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]You would be amazed what sitting down with someone over a period of hours or days can produce in terms of useful intelligence.[/quote]

Forgive me if I am wrong, but didn’t Saddam reveal some stuff to his guards after months of being buddy-buddy with them? What we should do with suspected terrorists is throw back a few beers with them, play some Lego Star Wars, break the ice, and shoot the shit — who knows what they might reveal.
[/quote]

Even the Nazi’s knew this was the most effective form of gathering useful information from a prisoner. Their best interrogators never used torture, nor did they threaten the use of torture. They essentially used the Copenhagen Syndrome to get the prisoners to tell them willingly what they wanted to know, and ALL of what they wanted to know. A cooperative prisoner is much more useful than an uncooperative one.

Over a prolonged period of time, I don’t even think the most radical extremist would be able to hold out under this method. You can essentially “deprogram” them at your leisure. And I’m pretty sure that any extremist hard core enough to resist this would be equally difficult to break via torture.

Using torture is counterproductive. The prisoner being tortured is constantly reminded of why they despise the torturer (and by extension the country employing them), and will simply tell the torturer enough to get them to stop – and that will be whatever the torturer wants to hear – not the truth, and certainly not the whole truth.

The only situation I could see torture being even remotely useful for is in the “Ticking Time Bomb” situation – and even then, it’s only because there is no time to do anything else – it’s not because the information gained is reliable. And frankly, I agree with the people above – in that incredibly rare scenario, you might be able to justify breaking the law, but it doesn’t justify crafting the law around that scenario and assuming that that scenario is a common one (frankly, I don’t know if that scenario has ever actually occurred).

[SDEngineer]

[quote=afx114][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]You would be amazed what sitting down with someone over a period of hours or days can produce in terms of useful intelligence.[/quote]

Forgive me if I am wrong, but didn’t Saddam reveal some stuff to his guards after months of being buddy-buddy with them? What we should do with suspected terrorists is throw back a few beers with them, play some Lego Star Wars, break the ice, and shoot the shit — who knows what they might reveal.
[/quote]

Even the Nazi’s knew this was the most effective form of gathering useful information from a prisoner. Their best interrogators never used torture, nor did they threaten the use of torture. They essentially used the Copenhagen Syndrome to get the prisoners to tell them willingly what they wanted to know, and ALL of what they wanted to know. A cooperative prisoner is much more useful than an uncooperative one.

Over a prolonged period of time, I don’t even think the most radical extremist would be able to hold out under this method. You can essentially “deprogram” them at your leisure. And I’m pretty sure that any extremist hard core enough to resist this would be equally difficult to break via torture.

Using torture is counterproductive. The prisoner being tortured is constantly reminded of why they despise the torturer (and by extension the country employing them), and will simply tell the torturer enough to get them to stop – and that will be whatever the torturer wants to hear – not the truth, and certainly not the whole truth.

The only situation I could see torture being even remotely useful for is in the “Ticking Time Bomb” situation – and even then, it’s only because there is no time to do anything else – it’s not because the information gained is reliable. And frankly, I agree with the people above – in that incredibly rare scenario, you might be able to justify breaking the law, but it doesn’t justify crafting the law around that scenario and assuming that that scenario is a common one (frankly, I don’t know if that scenario has ever actually occurred).

[SDEngineer]

[quote=afx114][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]You would be amazed what sitting down with someone over a period of hours or days can produce in terms of useful intelligence.[/quote]

Forgive me if I am wrong, but didn’t Saddam reveal some stuff to his guards after months of being buddy-buddy with them? What we should do with suspected terrorists is throw back a few beers with them, play some Lego Star Wars, break the ice, and shoot the shit — who knows what they might reveal.
[/quote]

Even the Nazi’s knew this was the most effective form of gathering useful information from a prisoner. Their best interrogators never used torture, nor did they threaten the use of torture. They essentially used the Copenhagen Syndrome to get the prisoners to tell them willingly what they wanted to know, and ALL of what they wanted to know. A cooperative prisoner is much more useful than an uncooperative one.

Over a prolonged period of time, I don’t even think the most radical extremist would be able to hold out under this method. You can essentially “deprogram” them at your leisure. And I’m pretty sure that any extremist hard core enough to resist this would be equally difficult to break via torture.

Using torture is counterproductive. The prisoner being tortured is constantly reminded of why they despise the torturer (and by extension the country employing them), and will simply tell the torturer enough to get them to stop – and that will be whatever the torturer wants to hear – not the truth, and certainly not the whole truth.

The only situation I could see torture being even remotely useful for is in the “Ticking Time Bomb” situation – and even then, it’s only because there is no time to do anything else – it’s not because the information gained is reliable. And frankly, I agree with the people above – in that incredibly rare scenario, you might be able to justify breaking the law, but it doesn’t justify crafting the law around that scenario and assuming that that scenario is a common one (frankly, I don’t know if that scenario has ever actually occurred).

[SDEngineer]

[quote=afx114][quote=Allan from Fallbrook]You would be amazed what sitting down with someone over a period of hours or days can produce in terms of useful intelligence.[/quote]

Forgive me if I am wrong, but didn’t Saddam reveal some stuff to his guards after months of being buddy-buddy with them? What we should do with suspected terrorists is throw back a few beers with them, play some Lego Star Wars, break the ice, and shoot the shit — who knows what they might reveal.
[/quote]

Even the Nazi’s knew this was the most effective form of gathering useful information from a prisoner. Their best interrogators never used torture, nor did they threaten the use of torture. They essentially used the Copenhagen Syndrome to get the prisoners to tell them willingly what they wanted to know, and ALL of what they wanted to know. A cooperative prisoner is much more useful than an uncooperative one.

Over a prolonged period of time, I don’t even think the most radical extremist would be able to hold out under this method. You can essentially “deprogram” them at your leisure. And I’m pretty sure that any extremist hard core enough to resist this would be equally difficult to break via torture.

Using torture is counterproductive. The prisoner being tortured is constantly reminded of why they despise the torturer (and by extension the country employing them), and will simply tell the torturer enough to get them to stop – and that will be whatever the torturer wants to hear – not the truth, and certainly not the whole truth.

The only situation I could see torture being even remotely useful for is in the “Ticking Time Bomb” situation – and even then, it’s only because there is no time to do anything else – it’s not because the information gained is reliable. And frankly, I agree with the people above – in that incredibly rare scenario, you might be able to justify breaking the law, but it doesn’t justify crafting the law around that scenario and assuming that that scenario is a common one (frankly, I don’t know if that scenario has ever actually occurred).

[SDEngineer]

You need to take into account the effect of inflation over time as well.

At 50% off, prices may be at a nominal level approaching that of 2001, but inflation adjusted, they’re much closer to the previous busts lows of 1996-1997. Wage inflation in San Diego County between 2000 and 2008 was over 30% (using US Census estimations – yes, San Diego did much better in wage inflation than much of the country), and that has to be taken into account. An inflation comparable “bottom” equivalent to the previous “bottom” would then be about 140% of 1996 prices (and thats probably on the conservative side).

Admittedly, this was a historic bubble, it’s POSSIBLE that the overshoot will be enough to get us back to the previous cycles nominal bottom prices (which looks like about 60-65% off peak), but I think it unlikely, as flu’s tier 1 and tier 2 buyers would be out in droves picking up properties that would cashflow instantly (and heavily) as rentals.

[SDEngineer]

You need to take into account the effect of inflation over time as well.

At 50% off, prices may be at a nominal level approaching that of 2001, but inflation adjusted, they’re much closer to the previous busts lows of 1996-1997. Wage inflation in San Diego County between 2000 and 2008 was over 30% (using US Census estimations – yes, San Diego did much better in wage inflation than much of the country), and that has to be taken into account. An inflation comparable “bottom” equivalent to the previous “bottom” would then be about 140% of 1996 prices (and thats probably on the conservative side).

Admittedly, this was a historic bubble, it’s POSSIBLE that the overshoot will be enough to get us back to the previous cycles nominal bottom prices (which looks like about 60-65% off peak), but I think it unlikely, as flu’s tier 1 and tier 2 buyers would be out in droves picking up properties that would cashflow instantly (and heavily) as rentals.

[SDEngineer]

You need to take into account the effect of inflation over time as well.

At 50% off, prices may be at a nominal level approaching that of 2001, but inflation adjusted, they’re much closer to the previous busts lows of 1996-1997. Wage inflation in San Diego County between 2000 and 2008 was over 30% (using US Census estimations – yes, San Diego did much better in wage inflation than much of the country), and that has to be taken into account. An inflation comparable “bottom” equivalent to the previous “bottom” would then be about 140% of 1996 prices (and thats probably on the conservative side).

Admittedly, this was a historic bubble, it’s POSSIBLE that the overshoot will be enough to get us back to the previous cycles nominal bottom prices (which looks like about 60-65% off peak), but I think it unlikely, as flu’s tier 1 and tier 2 buyers would be out in droves picking up properties that would cashflow instantly (and heavily) as rentals.

[SDEngineer]

You need to take into account the effect of inflation over time as well.

At 50% off, prices may be at a nominal level approaching that of 2001, but inflation adjusted, they’re much closer to the previous busts lows of 1996-1997. Wage inflation in San Diego County between 2000 and 2008 was over 30% (using US Census estimations – yes, San Diego did much better in wage inflation than much of the country), and that has to be taken into account. An inflation comparable “bottom” equivalent to the previous “bottom” would then be about 140% of 1996 prices (and thats probably on the conservative side).

Admittedly, this was a historic bubble, it’s POSSIBLE that the overshoot will be enough to get us back to the previous cycles nominal bottom prices (which looks like about 60-65% off peak), but I think it unlikely, as flu’s tier 1 and tier 2 buyers would be out in droves picking up properties that would cashflow instantly (and heavily) as rentals.

[Author]

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