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SDEngineer
Participant[quote=Rt.66]SDdataEngineer:
Any rise in wages SD enjoyed between 2002 and 2008 was fake, total BS. Housewives were pulling down $100k taking orders from house buyers. Brokers were making a killing making expensive loans to any one who could fog a mirror, etc.
SD went from wages falling after the fake Dot Com bubble burst to another fake up-tick with more flash-in-the-pan bubble jobs.
Looking thru those rose colored glasses, can you see another bubble on the horizon that will keep SD wages from falling for years to come?
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings,” said Murtaza Baxamusa, research and policy director of the Center on Policy Initiatives, a local think tank on labor issues.
“With inflation much higher in 2008, it’s going to be downhill from here. Families are facing a tougher struggle to get by.”San Diego’s median income dropped sharply in 2002 after the high-tech boom stalled; rebounded from 2004 through 2006, coinciding with the rise of the housing bubble; but then stalled in 2007 after the realestate market peaked”
The bubble areas had the bubble wages to temporarily boost the wage figures. The non-bubble areas got their asses kicked.
Your wage figures are a bubble anomaly not real wages. [/quote]
Really? My income has more than doubled during that timeframe, and I assure you, I’ve never done anything to make money with real estate. And I was one of the ones that was laid off during the dot com bust.
I can tell you that is true of most engineering positions – the salary paid out now for a given pay grade is significantly higher than it was in 2000 for the same pay grade. I know – I’m involved in hiring engineers now, and their starting pay fresh out of school right now is roughly the same as what I was being paid in 2000 as a mid level engineer (and WAY above my starting salary when I was a junior engineer).
Other industries? Probably not as good. Is SOME of that 30% appreciation over 8 years due to the bubble? Almost certainly – as you point out, there were a lot of people in industries directly related to that bubble who were making a lot of money specifically due to that bubble who are no doubt going to see that income disappear or at least reduce quite a bit.
But enough to account for all of that income appreciation? Not hardly. San Diego may have had a lot of realtors, appraisers, loan officers, construction workers, etc during the bubble, but there are also loads of highly paid jobs in San Diego that have nothing to do with real estate like engineers and biotech workers. You also have a substantial military presence, who have also gotten some decent raises over the years.
Please bear in mind, when an economist says things like:
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings”
they are talking about inflation adjusted earnings, which as you pointed out above, using national inflation data, was roughly 20% over the time period we’re talking about. They are not talking about nominal wages.
Participant[quote=Rt.66]SDdataEngineer:
Any rise in wages SD enjoyed between 2002 and 2008 was fake, total BS. Housewives were pulling down $100k taking orders from house buyers. Brokers were making a killing making expensive loans to any one who could fog a mirror, etc.
SD went from wages falling after the fake Dot Com bubble burst to another fake up-tick with more flash-in-the-pan bubble jobs.
Looking thru those rose colored glasses, can you see another bubble on the horizon that will keep SD wages from falling for years to come?
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings,” said Murtaza Baxamusa, research and policy director of the Center on Policy Initiatives, a local think tank on labor issues.
“With inflation much higher in 2008, it’s going to be downhill from here. Families are facing a tougher struggle to get by.”San Diego’s median income dropped sharply in 2002 after the high-tech boom stalled; rebounded from 2004 through 2006, coinciding with the rise of the housing bubble; but then stalled in 2007 after the realestate market peaked”
The bubble areas had the bubble wages to temporarily boost the wage figures. The non-bubble areas got their asses kicked.
Your wage figures are a bubble anomaly not real wages. [/quote]
Really? My income has more than doubled during that timeframe, and I assure you, I’ve never done anything to make money with real estate. And I was one of the ones that was laid off during the dot com bust.
I can tell you that is true of most engineering positions – the salary paid out now for a given pay grade is significantly higher than it was in 2000 for the same pay grade. I know – I’m involved in hiring engineers now, and their starting pay fresh out of school right now is roughly the same as what I was being paid in 2000 as a mid level engineer (and WAY above my starting salary when I was a junior engineer).
Other industries? Probably not as good. Is SOME of that 30% appreciation over 8 years due to the bubble? Almost certainly – as you point out, there were a lot of people in industries directly related to that bubble who were making a lot of money specifically due to that bubble who are no doubt going to see that income disappear or at least reduce quite a bit.
But enough to account for all of that income appreciation? Not hardly. San Diego may have had a lot of realtors, appraisers, loan officers, construction workers, etc during the bubble, but there are also loads of highly paid jobs in San Diego that have nothing to do with real estate like engineers and biotech workers. You also have a substantial military presence, who have also gotten some decent raises over the years.
Please bear in mind, when an economist says things like:
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings”
they are talking about inflation adjusted earnings, which as you pointed out above, using national inflation data, was roughly 20% over the time period we’re talking about. They are not talking about nominal wages.
Participant[quote=Rt.66]SDdataEngineer:
Any rise in wages SD enjoyed between 2002 and 2008 was fake, total BS. Housewives were pulling down $100k taking orders from house buyers. Brokers were making a killing making expensive loans to any one who could fog a mirror, etc.
SD went from wages falling after the fake Dot Com bubble burst to another fake up-tick with more flash-in-the-pan bubble jobs.
Looking thru those rose colored glasses, can you see another bubble on the horizon that will keep SD wages from falling for years to come?
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings,” said Murtaza Baxamusa, research and policy director of the Center on Policy Initiatives, a local think tank on labor issues.
“With inflation much higher in 2008, it’s going to be downhill from here. Families are facing a tougher struggle to get by.”San Diego’s median income dropped sharply in 2002 after the high-tech boom stalled; rebounded from 2004 through 2006, coinciding with the rise of the housing bubble; but then stalled in 2007 after the realestate market peaked”
The bubble areas had the bubble wages to temporarily boost the wage figures. The non-bubble areas got their asses kicked.
Your wage figures are a bubble anomaly not real wages. [/quote]
Really? My income has more than doubled during that timeframe, and I assure you, I’ve never done anything to make money with real estate. And I was one of the ones that was laid off during the dot com bust.
I can tell you that is true of most engineering positions – the salary paid out now for a given pay grade is significantly higher than it was in 2000 for the same pay grade. I know – I’m involved in hiring engineers now, and their starting pay fresh out of school right now is roughly the same as what I was being paid in 2000 as a mid level engineer (and WAY above my starting salary when I was a junior engineer).
Other industries? Probably not as good. Is SOME of that 30% appreciation over 8 years due to the bubble? Almost certainly – as you point out, there were a lot of people in industries directly related to that bubble who were making a lot of money specifically due to that bubble who are no doubt going to see that income disappear or at least reduce quite a bit.
But enough to account for all of that income appreciation? Not hardly. San Diego may have had a lot of realtors, appraisers, loan officers, construction workers, etc during the bubble, but there are also loads of highly paid jobs in San Diego that have nothing to do with real estate like engineers and biotech workers. You also have a substantial military presence, who have also gotten some decent raises over the years.
Please bear in mind, when an economist says things like:
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings”
they are talking about inflation adjusted earnings, which as you pointed out above, using national inflation data, was roughly 20% over the time period we’re talking about. They are not talking about nominal wages.
Participant[quote=Rt.66]SDdataEngineer:
Any rise in wages SD enjoyed between 2002 and 2008 was fake, total BS. Housewives were pulling down $100k taking orders from house buyers. Brokers were making a killing making expensive loans to any one who could fog a mirror, etc.
SD went from wages falling after the fake Dot Com bubble burst to another fake up-tick with more flash-in-the-pan bubble jobs.
Looking thru those rose colored glasses, can you see another bubble on the horizon that will keep SD wages from falling for years to come?
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings,” said Murtaza Baxamusa, research and policy director of the Center on Policy Initiatives, a local think tank on labor issues.
“With inflation much higher in 2008, it’s going to be downhill from here. Families are facing a tougher struggle to get by.”San Diego’s median income dropped sharply in 2002 after the high-tech boom stalled; rebounded from 2004 through 2006, coinciding with the rise of the housing bubble; but then stalled in 2007 after the realestate market peaked”
The bubble areas had the bubble wages to temporarily boost the wage figures. The non-bubble areas got their asses kicked.
Your wage figures are a bubble anomaly not real wages. [/quote]
Really? My income has more than doubled during that timeframe, and I assure you, I’ve never done anything to make money with real estate. And I was one of the ones that was laid off during the dot com bust.
I can tell you that is true of most engineering positions – the salary paid out now for a given pay grade is significantly higher than it was in 2000 for the same pay grade. I know – I’m involved in hiring engineers now, and their starting pay fresh out of school right now is roughly the same as what I was being paid in 2000 as a mid level engineer (and WAY above my starting salary when I was a junior engineer).
Other industries? Probably not as good. Is SOME of that 30% appreciation over 8 years due to the bubble? Almost certainly – as you point out, there were a lot of people in industries directly related to that bubble who were making a lot of money specifically due to that bubble who are no doubt going to see that income disappear or at least reduce quite a bit.
But enough to account for all of that income appreciation? Not hardly. San Diego may have had a lot of realtors, appraisers, loan officers, construction workers, etc during the bubble, but there are also loads of highly paid jobs in San Diego that have nothing to do with real estate like engineers and biotech workers. You also have a substantial military presence, who have also gotten some decent raises over the years.
Please bear in mind, when an economist says things like:
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings”
they are talking about inflation adjusted earnings, which as you pointed out above, using national inflation data, was roughly 20% over the time period we’re talking about. They are not talking about nominal wages.
Participant[quote=Rt.66]SDdataEngineer:
Any rise in wages SD enjoyed between 2002 and 2008 was fake, total BS. Housewives were pulling down $100k taking orders from house buyers. Brokers were making a killing making expensive loans to any one who could fog a mirror, etc.
SD went from wages falling after the fake Dot Com bubble burst to another fake up-tick with more flash-in-the-pan bubble jobs.
Looking thru those rose colored glasses, can you see another bubble on the horizon that will keep SD wages from falling for years to come?
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings,” said Murtaza Baxamusa, research and policy director of the Center on Policy Initiatives, a local think tank on labor issues.
“With inflation much higher in 2008, it’s going to be downhill from here. Families are facing a tougher struggle to get by.”San Diego’s median income dropped sharply in 2002 after the high-tech boom stalled; rebounded from 2004 through 2006, coinciding with the rise of the housing bubble; but then stalled in 2007 after the realestate market peaked”
The bubble areas had the bubble wages to temporarily boost the wage figures. The non-bubble areas got their asses kicked.
Your wage figures are a bubble anomaly not real wages. [/quote]
Really? My income has more than doubled during that timeframe, and I assure you, I’ve never done anything to make money with real estate. And I was one of the ones that was laid off during the dot com bust.
I can tell you that is true of most engineering positions – the salary paid out now for a given pay grade is significantly higher than it was in 2000 for the same pay grade. I know – I’m involved in hiring engineers now, and their starting pay fresh out of school right now is roughly the same as what I was being paid in 2000 as a mid level engineer (and WAY above my starting salary when I was a junior engineer).
Other industries? Probably not as good. Is SOME of that 30% appreciation over 8 years due to the bubble? Almost certainly – as you point out, there were a lot of people in industries directly related to that bubble who were making a lot of money specifically due to that bubble who are no doubt going to see that income disappear or at least reduce quite a bit.
But enough to account for all of that income appreciation? Not hardly. San Diego may have had a lot of realtors, appraisers, loan officers, construction workers, etc during the bubble, but there are also loads of highly paid jobs in San Diego that have nothing to do with real estate like engineers and biotech workers. You also have a substantial military presence, who have also gotten some decent raises over the years.
Please bear in mind, when an economist says things like:
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings”
they are talking about inflation adjusted earnings, which as you pointed out above, using national inflation data, was roughly 20% over the time period we’re talking about. They are not talking about nominal wages.
Participant[quote=Rt.66]
How about 1980s prices for SD RE in 2018?
Do you suppose 1990 bubble prices in Japan are still considered the “regular price” or the point at which discounts begin?
Today, would a Japanese buyer be tempted by a realtor stating the house was 50% off what it sold for in 1990? Or would that 1990 number be considered an absurd anomaly today?
[/quote]Feel free to wait that long. I have exceedingly serious doubts they would come anywhere close to falling that far. For one thing, for prices to fall that far, income would likely have to be cut by 30% over the next 8 years – otherwise price to income ratios would be in the 1.5:1 range, which would be historically unprecedented (median house price in 1988 was $145K).
Of course, inflation adjusted, it won’t be surprising at all to see that – but an inflation adjusted 1988 price is 260K – not far off where we are now.
In current 2009 dollars though? I just don’t see it.
Participant[quote=Rt.66]
How about 1980s prices for SD RE in 2018?
Do you suppose 1990 bubble prices in Japan are still considered the “regular price” or the point at which discounts begin?
Today, would a Japanese buyer be tempted by a realtor stating the house was 50% off what it sold for in 1990? Or would that 1990 number be considered an absurd anomaly today?
[/quote]Feel free to wait that long. I have exceedingly serious doubts they would come anywhere close to falling that far. For one thing, for prices to fall that far, income would likely have to be cut by 30% over the next 8 years – otherwise price to income ratios would be in the 1.5:1 range, which would be historically unprecedented (median house price in 1988 was $145K).
Of course, inflation adjusted, it won’t be surprising at all to see that – but an inflation adjusted 1988 price is 260K – not far off where we are now.
In current 2009 dollars though? I just don’t see it.
Participant[quote=Rt.66]
How about 1980s prices for SD RE in 2018?
Do you suppose 1990 bubble prices in Japan are still considered the “regular price” or the point at which discounts begin?
Today, would a Japanese buyer be tempted by a realtor stating the house was 50% off what it sold for in 1990? Or would that 1990 number be considered an absurd anomaly today?
[/quote]Feel free to wait that long. I have exceedingly serious doubts they would come anywhere close to falling that far. For one thing, for prices to fall that far, income would likely have to be cut by 30% over the next 8 years – otherwise price to income ratios would be in the 1.5:1 range, which would be historically unprecedented (median house price in 1988 was $145K).
Of course, inflation adjusted, it won’t be surprising at all to see that – but an inflation adjusted 1988 price is 260K – not far off where we are now.
In current 2009 dollars though? I just don’t see it.
Participant[quote=Rt.66]
How about 1980s prices for SD RE in 2018?
Do you suppose 1990 bubble prices in Japan are still considered the “regular price” or the point at which discounts begin?
Today, would a Japanese buyer be tempted by a realtor stating the house was 50% off what it sold for in 1990? Or would that 1990 number be considered an absurd anomaly today?
[/quote]Feel free to wait that long. I have exceedingly serious doubts they would come anywhere close to falling that far. For one thing, for prices to fall that far, income would likely have to be cut by 30% over the next 8 years – otherwise price to income ratios would be in the 1.5:1 range, which would be historically unprecedented (median house price in 1988 was $145K).
Of course, inflation adjusted, it won’t be surprising at all to see that – but an inflation adjusted 1988 price is 260K – not far off where we are now.
In current 2009 dollars though? I just don’t see it.
Participant[quote=Rt.66]
How about 1980s prices for SD RE in 2018?
Do you suppose 1990 bubble prices in Japan are still considered the “regular price” or the point at which discounts begin?
Today, would a Japanese buyer be tempted by a realtor stating the house was 50% off what it sold for in 1990? Or would that 1990 number be considered an absurd anomaly today?
[/quote]Feel free to wait that long. I have exceedingly serious doubts they would come anywhere close to falling that far. For one thing, for prices to fall that far, income would likely have to be cut by 30% over the next 8 years – otherwise price to income ratios would be in the 1.5:1 range, which would be historically unprecedented (median house price in 1988 was $145K).
Of course, inflation adjusted, it won’t be surprising at all to see that – but an inflation adjusted 1988 price is 260K – not far off where we are now.
In current 2009 dollars though? I just don’t see it.
Participant[quote=ralphfurley]
We’d you read that? Not saying it’s wrong, just curious. I was under the impression that wages have not risen since 2001. Maybe that was LA county. [shrug][/quote]2007 household income figure for San Diego County was $61,794, supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau 2007 American Community Survey.
Available at the below link, select American Community Survey -> Get Data -> 2007 ACS 1 year data, select data profiles, select geographic type county, select CA, select SD County.
2000 household income figure was $47,067, again supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau (same link as above, select Decennial census, select SF3 data set, select Detailed Tables, select Geographic Type County, select CA, select SD County, look up P53 Median Household Income)
This is almost exactly a 30% gain (29.99%) from a 2000 measurement point to 2008 measurement point (1999-2007 income years).
We did pretty well overall, by most of the inflation estimates we are above inflation. Most of the U.S. was either flat in comparison to inflation, or lost a little bit of ground (even in those situations though, incomes still rose, just not as fast as inflation for the vast majority of the U.S.)
Participant[quote=ralphfurley]
We’d you read that? Not saying it’s wrong, just curious. I was under the impression that wages have not risen since 2001. Maybe that was LA county. [shrug][/quote]2007 household income figure for San Diego County was $61,794, supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau 2007 American Community Survey.
Available at the below link, select American Community Survey -> Get Data -> 2007 ACS 1 year data, select data profiles, select geographic type county, select CA, select SD County.
2000 household income figure was $47,067, again supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau (same link as above, select Decennial census, select SF3 data set, select Detailed Tables, select Geographic Type County, select CA, select SD County, look up P53 Median Household Income)
This is almost exactly a 30% gain (29.99%) from a 2000 measurement point to 2008 measurement point (1999-2007 income years).
We did pretty well overall, by most of the inflation estimates we are above inflation. Most of the U.S. was either flat in comparison to inflation, or lost a little bit of ground (even in those situations though, incomes still rose, just not as fast as inflation for the vast majority of the U.S.)
Participant[quote=ralphfurley]
We’d you read that? Not saying it’s wrong, just curious. I was under the impression that wages have not risen since 2001. Maybe that was LA county. [shrug][/quote]2007 household income figure for San Diego County was $61,794, supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau 2007 American Community Survey.
Available at the below link, select American Community Survey -> Get Data -> 2007 ACS 1 year data, select data profiles, select geographic type county, select CA, select SD County.
2000 household income figure was $47,067, again supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau (same link as above, select Decennial census, select SF3 data set, select Detailed Tables, select Geographic Type County, select CA, select SD County, look up P53 Median Household Income)
This is almost exactly a 30% gain (29.99%) from a 2000 measurement point to 2008 measurement point (1999-2007 income years).
We did pretty well overall, by most of the inflation estimates we are above inflation. Most of the U.S. was either flat in comparison to inflation, or lost a little bit of ground (even in those situations though, incomes still rose, just not as fast as inflation for the vast majority of the U.S.)
Participant[quote=ralphfurley]
We’d you read that? Not saying it’s wrong, just curious. I was under the impression that wages have not risen since 2001. Maybe that was LA county. [shrug][/quote]2007 household income figure for San Diego County was $61,794, supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau 2007 American Community Survey.
Available at the below link, select American Community Survey -> Get Data -> 2007 ACS 1 year data, select data profiles, select geographic type county, select CA, select SD County.
2000 household income figure was $47,067, again supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau (same link as above, select Decennial census, select SF3 data set, select Detailed Tables, select Geographic Type County, select CA, select SD County, look up P53 Median Household Income)
This is almost exactly a 30% gain (29.99%) from a 2000 measurement point to 2008 measurement point (1999-2007 income years).
We did pretty well overall, by most of the inflation estimates we are above inflation. Most of the U.S. was either flat in comparison to inflation, or lost a little bit of ground (even in those situations though, incomes still rose, just not as fast as inflation for the vast majority of the U.S.)
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