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sdduuuude
ParticipantThe natural resources of America are pretty significant.
Lumber – it's pretty hard to find a pine tree in Japan.
Food – our heartland is pretty productive.
Copper – Arizona used to put out alot of copper, may still.
May 28, 2006 at 8:13 PM in reply to: Another SD housing market prediction by a smart man, here are some excerpts: #26000sdduuuude
ParticipantI like the analysis, there, powayseller !
sdduuuude
ParticipantCalifornia Canyon
sdduuuude
ParticipantMore rules about what I can and can’t do with my money are not what the market needs.
sdduuuude
ParticipantI think saving is the most important thing.
If you just rent, but aren’t putting extra cash away, you won’t be in a position to buy a house when the price is right.Part of the “don’t buy now” strategy has to include saving for the down payment.
sdduuuude
ParticipantI’m not so sure this hasn’t always been the case with 20-somethings.
sdduuuude
ParticipantIts all about supply and demand. Lets start burning down houses and having babies. This will create demand in the future and reduce supply now, creating lots of jobs in the construction industry. Call it the “burn ‘n’ boink” program.
sdduuuude
ParticipantI think most, including you powayseller, underestimate how bad a 10% drop in median home price really is, or how long it takes. I agree, most pepole buy the “soft landing” theory and think that means a 5-10% reduction.
Of course, they don’t realize that is $50,000 on a median home !!!!! Alot of money. Two years of after-tax salary over and above basic living costs for many.
Consider the last bubble deflation was really quite nasty and the median price dropped ‘tween 10 and 15%. So, when people say “only 10%” I don’t think they realize – that is a deflating bubble not a soft landing.
Also, I think few realize how long it takes. A fast drop of 10%, then back to “normal” wouldn’t be so bad. It is the years of langushing that cause pain. It is more like torture than a simple injury that heals right away. As you pointed out – like a frog in cold water that slowly starts to boil.
20% would be nasty, nasty, nasty, especailly if it lasts for 7+ years.
May 21, 2006 at 6:23 PM in reply to: That jackass Chamberhead is back railing that no bubble exists #25760sdduuuude
ParticipantYeah – tape the show.
sdduuuude
ParticipantI went camping out near Campo this weekend.
Was surprised by all the for sale signs out there.
Lots of land for sale too – 120 acres, 30 acres, 18 acres, etc.sdduuuude
ParticipantWow. Great numbers. Look at how much worse Phoenix is than San Diego. Wow.
sdduuuude
ParticipantThanks, Rich. How come you don’t plot this Case-Shiller Index regularly? Sounds useful.
sdduuuude
ParticipantJohn F – you’re my hero.
In Rich’s graph, a reduction of 37% would bring the chart back to the median, but only if it happened instantaneously. If it takes 5 to 7 years, if incomes rise with inflation, it would take less of a reduction.
sdduuuude
ParticipantI’m talkin’ median county-wide price, specifically.
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