Inventories

[Carlsbadliving]

While reading ocrenters’ blog, I was amazed to see the inventories he had listed for other western cities:

Phoenix Metro:
45,358 total inventory

Riverside County:
22,081 total inventory

Sacramento Metro:
14,029 total inventory

Orange County:
14,118 total inventory

San Diego County:
20,298 total inventory

Las Vegas Metro:
20,298 total inventory

Los Angeles County:
35,880 total inventory

Seattle Metro:
9,629 total inventory

Santa Clara
4,046 total inventory

Vegas at half the population of San Diego County has the same inventory. And Phoenix at the same approx. population as San Diego County has more than twice as many homes for sale. I know that San Diego has been picked as the place to watch as far as the first to burst but it seems quite obvious that things are already tanking in the desert. It appears that the coast is going to hold up a little longer than the desert.

[ocrenter]

one main reason is the huge amount of investors in those markets. of course, the large portion of those investors come straight from SoCal. The desert rose up a lot later, but it will tank a whole lot faster and steeper. SD is tanking first by virtue of being the first of the coast to bubble up. So it is just further along the cycle than other coastal areas.

[sdduuuude]

It’d be interesting to see this as a ratio of population.

[PD]

Things are turning in Phoenix. We own a condo there with two other people and are trying to sell it….QUICK. My mother lives in a new community in the Phoenix area that only about 30% sold. Prices increased 50% last year. Every week she called me to tell me her house went up another 2k. Now her builder is offering all kinds of free upgrades so that they don’t have to drop the base price. I’m sure thata base price reduction is coming soon. For her sake, I hope I’m wrong.

[Carlsbadliving]

Here you go, ratio of population:

Las Vegas Metro = .0123
Phoenix Metro = .0122
Riverside County = .0113
San Diego County = .0069
Sacramento Metro = .0069
Orange County = .0047
LA County = .0036
Seattle Metro = .0030
Santa Clara County = .0024

As you probably guessed, the desert/outlying areas have the highest inventories per capita. The coastal metro areas have fewer homes for sale. Should be an interesting analysis to check as we continue along.

[PD]

Interesting data. Thanks.

[sdduuuude]

Wow. Great numbers. Look at how much worse Phoenix is than San Diego. Wow.

[powayseller]

If you’ve ever been to Phoenix, you’d wonder how they ever got into bubble territory in the first place. The only reason the whole city doesn’t blow away in a dust storm is because they’ve diverted the Colorado River to bring water to their pools (which you need in 115 degree heat) and landscaping.

When I lived in Phoenix, one day it was so hot, the planes couldn’t take off for a several hours from Sky Harbor Airport. The reason was that the jet’s engines had never been tested for takeoff in the extreme 115 (or 120) degree heat of that day.

There is land as far as the eye can see. It’s hot and dry. It’s not a center for high-paying jobs. I can see why SD was raised to bubble status, but Phoenix and Las Vegas? It makes no sense.

[PD]

Home prices there were dirt cheap in comparision to places like OC and SD. I know a number of people who sold here and moved there. They ended up with a lot more money and a better life. Calfornia people have been tossing money around there like confetti. That declining poopulation in SD?– they all went to Vegas and Phx and took their speculation $$ with them.

[PD]

There is another area that is probably in big trouble and no one talks about it – Yuma. The amount of building there in the last couple of years is INSANE. There is nothing there to support such an increase in housing. The biggest employers are the Marine base, the Dole plant and Walmart.
There is a big development in process about 40 miles east of Yuma. There is a golf course that is being heavily watered next to freeway and a few nice houses in the distance. THERE IS NO INFRASTRUCTURE to support this place. Yuma is a long distance away.
The last time we drove by, I turned to my husband and said, “This is going to revert back to sand in five years.”

[Author]

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