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April 16, 2012 at 1:14 AM in reply to: OT: Post your favorite pic of your town/neighborhood that you took. #741708April 13, 2012 at 11:41 PM in reply to: Where is the inventory, where is the inventory, where is the inventory… #741646
sdduuuude
ParticipantSome thoughts to explain why I don’t know:
Been hearing about the Tsunami so long, one has to wonder if it is ever coming. Is it a myth or the boy who cried wolf ?
A hold on foreclosure activity due to robosigning/legal activity/attempts to “keep homeowners in their home” last year would explain why now instead of last year.
Been hearing Tsunami warnings on MSM (and TG’s friends) lately, for sure. That suggests it is not going to happen.
Many say short sales will take over the market rather than foreclosures.
I think banks are struggling to recover from the credit crisis. Their position using mark-to-market can’t be good. They’ll have to dribble this stuff out over time unless one bank panics.
If there is a tsunami coming, the lender who panics first wins.
A guy I know and trust said he has insider friends at a biiiiiig bank. They have issued a tsunami warning. That’s from inside a bank. Interesting.
Right before a tsunami hits, the tide retreats rapidly. Currently, inventory is retreating rapidly. Not sure I put much faith in this comparison, but it is interesting.
Participant[quote=Essbee]With the houses being of marginal quality in the first place and not designed to last 100+ years[/quote]
Lots of interesting thoughts here. I’m no sociologist so I’m not sure what will happen to Clairemont but I do know the houses are build to last 100 yrs.
I have personally ripped out ceiling joists and wall studs with my very own sawzall and those members are made of fir – not hemlock like most of today’s lumber. Hard as hell to cut through. Plus, they are only growing stronger with age – wood does that. Given San Diego’s mild climate, I don’t see any structural issues there. I think they are very well built and that is first-hand knowledge.
Pretty much every house will need a new sewer line soon and maybe the in-slab copper pipes replaced, but with fir framing on concrete slabs on stable ground, I think they’ll be in good shape if you just keep replacing the roof, heater, maybe some siding and other things that decay over time in any house.
Also going for it are the larger lot sizes compared to newer construction. The houses themselves are pretty small, but the big lots suggest TG’s theory may be pretty good. Small houses on big lots mean young people can afford them and grow the house as their family grows without incurring the cost/pain of selling/buying/moving repeatedly. That’s what we did.
April 11, 2012 at 10:05 PM in reply to: Where is the inventory, where is the inventory, where is the inventory… #741506ParticipantWhere’s the inventory? you ask.
I ask – where is the discussion about the inventory?
Participant[quote=bearishgurl][quote=briansd1]I think the economy is picking up.
As much as I dislike Vegas, i’m in sin city. Really busy.
All the helicopter flights to grand canyon are booked solid.Yes, airfares are higher this year. According to FAA there will be tight capacity for at least 5 more years.[/quote]
brian, why don’t you just rent a car and drive down there. It’s not that far … when you get there you can take a camel to see the sights :=][/quote]
It’s a 5-hour drive. One way.
You ride burros, not camels.ParticipantDefinitely try hotwire and priceline.
You can use them together if you know the tricks. Basically, you use hotwire to find the lowest prices, then use that information to make slightly lower bids on Priceline.
Also, check out betterbidding.com to help figure out which hotel you are getting before you book.
Flights, more so than hotel rooms, are what I think are very expensive now.
Participant[quote=ocrenter][quote=sdduuuude]But you just said that paying of the MR doesn’t increase the value of a particular home by as much as the amount you pay off. How is knowing that you can pay it off (and effectively lose money), any comfort at all ? ?
he point is – you put yourself in a no-win situation. Here I am, today, with no house.
OK. So I can choose to buy a house with MR or not.
If I choose an MR house, then I am choosing to buy either the right to make payments on a 9% loan or the right to make a lump-sum payment which will improve the value of my house by less than that lump-sum payment.
If you choose to put yourself in a position where your next move is a choice between two bad options, then it’s a bad choice.
Those MR should trade like the cash liabilities that they are and the only way is for buyers to start putting MR payoff requests in their offers.[/quote]
But it isn’t a no win situation. Had I completely ruled out all homes with MR, I would not be able to purchase my home at $260k discount from original asking.
Now I simply need to pay about 1/5 that discount to get rid of the MR.
The point here is there’s a lot of people like yourself that shy away from communities with MR. Which helps create more bargains in MR communities. And it just so happens these are communities that was hit hard, hence, more great opportunities. This often means excellent bargains even factoring in the yearly MR. With the ability to pay off the MR early at 1/3 the long term cost, it makes buying bargains in MR communities even more attractive.
If you insist that’s no win, sure, be my guest.[/quote]
With me, it’s a logic problem. Either you realize all the gain of buying down the MR or you don’t.
If you have to pay $40K to buy down your MR and you feel you got a $40K discount vs. a comparable property because of it, then you are good. And if that is really the case, then you would honestly get the $40K back when you sell.
But, sdr and others said that you aren’t going to get that $40K back when you sell, so I’m not so sure I believe that you got as much of a discount due to the MR that you think. Your $250K discount was due to the other factors you mention.
Pragmatically, we’ll never know, of course. Who can measure it ? Nobody. The only way to know is if buyers start putting it in the offer letter so you can compare properties against each other.
The neat thing about this thread is – it points out the importance of knowing how buyers and sellers value MR vs. the actual, real cost of it.
ParticipantBut you just said that paying of the MR doesn’t increase the value of a particular home by as much as the amount you pay off. How is knowing that you can pay it off (and effectively lose money), any comfort at all ? ?
he point is – you put yourself in a no-win situation. Here I am, today, with no house.
OK. So I can choose to buy a house with MR or not.
If I choose an MR house, then I am choosing to buy either the right to make payments on a 9% loan or the right to make a lump-sum payment which will improve the value of my house by less than that lump-sum payment.
If you choose to put yourself in a position where your next move is a choice between two bad options, then it’s a bad choice.
Those MR should trade like the cash liabilities that they are and the only way is for buyers to start putting MR payoff requests in their offers.
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]I think you need to re-read what he wrote and check your math. He wrote maybe $10,000 to $20,000 more for paid off MR on a house with $5400 annual MR (payoff = $58,000). And I think thats a fairly big maybe. His opinion is very much in line with mine that paying them off wont get you close to a dollar for dollar return. A 2 to 4X the annual MR payment seems like a reasonable boost in value for paid off MR but I wouldnt expect more. Paying them off could be a wise choice if you stay long term but most likely wouldnt if you wanted to boost resale value only.[/quote]
Doesn’t this scream “whatever you do, don’t buy a house with MR ” ??
I mean, if by paying them off early you get out from under a 9% loan, but it doesn’t increase the value of the house by the same amount, then buying into a place with MR is just dumb.
Just a trick the developers pull because people aren’t making rational decisions.
Maybe the good realtors will start a trend of putting in buy offers that include a requirement that, as a part of escrow, the MR tax is paid off. Then, you can get clear comparisons between houses with different MR. i.e. offer 800K for a house with $40K in MR, or $840K for a house without it. Either way, you offer $840K with any and all MR paid off.
ParticipantThis is really the only comment I could think of:
I got yer Made in USA Plumbing Hardware right here, pal.
ParticipantLook for lvrealtor in the local housing blog.
Participant[quote=walterwhite]No. I’m a declining asset. I don’t think I’m going to be worth much in 15 years.
I see myself persOnally as kind of like Polaroid stock. Kind of cool for a whole but ultimately irrelevant.[/quote]
I’m gonna tell your wife that one should rent, not own, declining assets.
Participant[quote=pri_dk][quote=UCGal]On the topic of fertility levels in the 30’s.
[…]
The depression definitely impacted fertility – if couples are apart due to work (or lack thereof) it’s harder to make babies.[/quote]
Interesting story. I was wondering exactly what “reduced fertility levels” meant. I guessed it may have had to do with malnutrition.[/quote]
Ya, it is really a procreation rate, not a fertility rate. Poorly worded. Still interesting.
ParticipantPersonally, I would not get a permit for anything that can’t be seen/monitored from the street or from Google satellite photos. But, that’s just me.
I would permit an electrical service upgrade, and the deck. Even though you are supposed to get a permit for moving walls and electrical, I’d just do it. The permits themselves aren’t bad part – but permits bring inspectors.
Who knows what the building inspector will see in your house and make you do, unrelated to the project at hand. Get the wrong building inspector and your life will be hell.
You can still hire good professionals even if you don’t have a permit
Participant[quote=pri_dk]But I will continue to poke fun. Because being a jerk comes so naturally to me, and Realtors are just easy targets.[/quote]
This gave me a good laugh.
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