[sdcellar]

I just re-read what you asked. I thought you meant both things, but you asked for either one. While I’m confident that your townhome won’t appreciate, I’m less confident about the rent number. I still believe it unlikely, but I’ll say 10% chance of that.

For both of them to happen, I’ll run with zero.

[sdcellar]

I’ll say 5%. I’d say zero, but there are no sure things.

[sdcellar]

AN– Nobody (or at least I) wants you to hold your tongue. You could be absolutely right and there will be no recession. Or there could be one and it won’t be too bad. Or there could be a depression like some have suggested. Or things could just keep swimming along for a couple more years.

I was just trying to explain the difference between yours and powayseller’s points. I think there’s some kind of indicator related to who wins the Super Bowl or something as well. If any of this stuff was a sure thing, we’d all be a lot richer.

(Then again, how would that work? We can’t all be rich, somebody needs to lose money).

[sdcellar]

Detached condos are typically listed as SFRs. I read somewhere what technically defines a detached condo, but I don’t recall exactly. I know it involves things like zero lot lines, very small or non-existent backyards, shared driveways, things like that.

The practical difference is that they are worth less money.

It makes sense though, that they list as an SFR because the structure does indeed (or is at least intended to) house a single family.

[sdcellar]

Need one read any further than the quote from Sophia Bennett Holmes, 12, an aspiring singer-actress-fashion designer?

If you do, I think the last paragraph tells you all you need to know:

“I feel like they’re definitely going to have a hard time with college, where you have to sort of do that sitting down and shutting up thing,” said Victoria Rothman, 17, a public school refugee who now spends much of her school day studying music. “There are kids who sit here and play video games all day. I’d put a limit to that or ban it.”

Sure, some flexibility in curriculum and instruction is good, but a free-for-all? Probably not.

[sdcellar]

PC, exactly and AN, it’s just that, a sign, nothing more, nothing less. It doesn’t mean a recession is certain to happen, it’s just been a good historical indicator. Let’s just breath everybody…

Damn, I wish I’d been able to make it to the meet-up…

[sdcellar]

an– I thought it might be one of those listed on Compass Point because the square footage tied. The only thing that threw me was the only reference I could find to your subject property indicated it was built in 1996. Does that sound right?

Also, these are closer to what I’d consider detached condos and I think you can find the same thing in better areas for what these comps and the $575K listing come in at, so your property was definitely more “realistically” priced. Any idea why?

It is *crazy* to me that any of these places ever sold for $600,000. (sorry if anybody reading this is an owner…)

[sdcellar]

scripps– That’s a pretty sweet calculator. Much better than a lot of the simple ones you see out there. (at least I think it is, I want to sanity check some of the calculations, but it does seem to factor in most everything).

an– You might want to run your numbers. That property isn’t looking so good, even if you live in it for 10 years.

[sdcellar]

an– On car sales, I’m not sure I understand your point. If sales are down in this country, sales are down. Doesn’t matter if sales of imports are up and further, doesn’t that actually make things worse for the U.S. economy, not better? Sure, maybe the Japanese will buy some factories and create new jobs, but maybe the overall impact is still negative.

I believe powayseller’s point is that people buying fewer new cars has historically been a leading indicator of recessions. The mix doesn’t matter, it’s just the fact that people are buying fewer cars.

[sdcellar]

1% will increase the interest payment by $375. I understand what you’re saying though, and I too hope that prices will continue to approach reasonable levels. (and then go right past them!)

You have piqued my curiosity a bit though. Do you know of any comparable active listings to the house you’re talking about? I did a quick search and didn’t find anything close to that. I was looking for anything built after 2000.

[sdcellar]

You won’t get a 6% interest rate at 100% financing and I’ll admit I left out the tax break (so I probably should have left out the tax hit, but for whatever reason I was thinking of it in terms of a rental where the benefit is less). It’s not, however, the full $917/mo, rather it’s the difference between that and the standard deduction (roughly). I guess you chose to leave out maintenance. I’ll let you pick that number.

Again, couldn’t see the property, but if it is indeed newer, than I would agree, the rent should be higher. That said, since it’s newer, are there any special assessments?

[sdcellar]

Thanks Bugs, very interesting. I’m not familiar at all with underwriting, but it definitely sounds like the process encourages one to fit the numbers. Are there issues with coming in with an appraisal that’s significantly over the sales price?

[sdcellar]

kristinejm– I seemed to recall you’d gone the “hetero” route!

and yes, that is very tragic. Also, just want to be clear that I am impressed with a large number of adoptive parents and even moreso by those who actually take on special needs children. I’ve known a few couples who’ve done that and they are frankly amazing people in my opinion.

[sdcellar]

I did $450,000 with your somewhat low interest rate– With $90K down, it’s $2,044/mo + $100 for HOA + $375 for property tax, grand total $2,519. Simple interest on the $90K at 4%, $300/month.

Not a realtor, so I can’t look at the property, but I’m guessing good luck with that $2000-$2100 per month on rent as well. Not a very big place and it took me two seconds to find several 4 bedrooms in Mira Mesa for less than $2000/mo.

See! I told you I wouldn’t steal it.

[sdcellar]

I’m not sure if it’s changed, but I did it myself back in the nineties and no appraiser was necessary. Just collected a few comps (10 actually), submitted them along with a letter stating what I thought the value of my home was and sent it to the assessor’s office.

They approved, it my tax basis went down and from that point it increased at the standard 2% annually provided for by Prop. 13 (which is what I also believe covers this process).

At some point, the assessor can kick it back up to the original value including the 2% annual increase, but not until the value actually suppports it. I sold before that, however, so I can’t really provide any further detail on that aspect.

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