[SD Transplant]

JP Morgan just released some numbers for CA, but it could give us some insight of San Diego’s future:

Assuming Unemployment @ 7%
– CA prices might drop another 10% from now
or that would translate to 44% from the peak

Assuming Unemployment @ 8%:
– CA prices might drop another 24% from now
or that would translate to down way over 50% from the peak

Here it is:
“In a slide provided to investors late last night during a conference call covering its acquisition of Washington Mutual (WM: 1.215 -28.11%), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 47.88 +10.17%) clearly believes that there is further to fall in two key states, as well as nationwide — and potentially much further to fall, depending on economic conditions.

The firm said it current expects home prices nationwide to fall another 8 percent from current levels, assuming unemployment of 7 percent; its estimates for California and Florida, however, were more severe. JP Morgan said that its base-case suggests another 10 percent in price declines in California, while prices in Florida may fall another 16 percent.

The expectations for a further drop translate into a 25 percent peak-to-trough drop in prices nationwide; prices in California and Florida will have fallen 44 percent in such a scenario, the company suggested.

Should unemployment reach 8 percent — the scenario for a severe recession, under JP Morgan’s estimation — those price declines would be much worse. In such a case, California could see home prices fall another 24 percent from current levels, while Florida would drop 36 percent and nationally home prices would fall 20 percent from where they are currently. Such a worst-case scenario would drive an extra $54 billion in losses in the WaMu loan portfolio, were it to pass.”

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/09/26/jp-morgan-calif-florida-face-further-home-price-declines/

[SD Transplant]

JP Morgan just released some numbers for CA, but it could give us some insight of San Diego’s future:

Assuming Unemployment @ 7%
– CA prices might drop another 10% from now
or that would translate to 44% from the peak

Assuming Unemployment @ 8%:
– CA prices might drop another 24% from now
or that would translate to down way over 50% from the peak

Here it is:
“In a slide provided to investors late last night during a conference call covering its acquisition of Washington Mutual (WM: 1.215 -28.11%), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 47.88 +10.17%) clearly believes that there is further to fall in two key states, as well as nationwide — and potentially much further to fall, depending on economic conditions.

The firm said it current expects home prices nationwide to fall another 8 percent from current levels, assuming unemployment of 7 percent; its estimates for California and Florida, however, were more severe. JP Morgan said that its base-case suggests another 10 percent in price declines in California, while prices in Florida may fall another 16 percent.

The expectations for a further drop translate into a 25 percent peak-to-trough drop in prices nationwide; prices in California and Florida will have fallen 44 percent in such a scenario, the company suggested.

Should unemployment reach 8 percent — the scenario for a severe recession, under JP Morgan’s estimation — those price declines would be much worse. In such a case, California could see home prices fall another 24 percent from current levels, while Florida would drop 36 percent and nationally home prices would fall 20 percent from where they are currently. Such a worst-case scenario would drive an extra $54 billion in losses in the WaMu loan portfolio, were it to pass.”

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/09/26/jp-morgan-calif-florida-face-further-home-price-declines/

[SD Transplant]

JP Morgan just released some numbers for CA, but it could give us some insight of San Diego’s future:

Assuming Unemployment @ 7%
– CA prices might drop another 10% from now
or that would translate to 44% from the peak

Assuming Unemployment @ 8%:
– CA prices might drop another 24% from now
or that would translate to down way over 50% from the peak

Here it is:
“In a slide provided to investors late last night during a conference call covering its acquisition of Washington Mutual (WM: 1.215 -28.11%), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 47.88 +10.17%) clearly believes that there is further to fall in two key states, as well as nationwide — and potentially much further to fall, depending on economic conditions.

The firm said it current expects home prices nationwide to fall another 8 percent from current levels, assuming unemployment of 7 percent; its estimates for California and Florida, however, were more severe. JP Morgan said that its base-case suggests another 10 percent in price declines in California, while prices in Florida may fall another 16 percent.

The expectations for a further drop translate into a 25 percent peak-to-trough drop in prices nationwide; prices in California and Florida will have fallen 44 percent in such a scenario, the company suggested.

Should unemployment reach 8 percent — the scenario for a severe recession, under JP Morgan’s estimation — those price declines would be much worse. In such a case, California could see home prices fall another 24 percent from current levels, while Florida would drop 36 percent and nationally home prices would fall 20 percent from where they are currently. Such a worst-case scenario would drive an extra $54 billion in losses in the WaMu loan portfolio, were it to pass.”

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/09/26/jp-morgan-calif-florida-face-further-home-price-declines/

[SD Transplant]

JP Morgan just released some numbers for CA, but it could give us some insight of San Diego’s future:

Assuming Unemployment @ 7%
– CA prices might drop another 10% from now
or that would translate to 44% from the peak

Assuming Unemployment @ 8%:
– CA prices might drop another 24% from now
or that would translate to down way over 50% from the peak

Here it is:
“In a slide provided to investors late last night during a conference call covering its acquisition of Washington Mutual (WM: 1.215 -28.11%), JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM: 47.88 +10.17%) clearly believes that there is further to fall in two key states, as well as nationwide — and potentially much further to fall, depending on economic conditions.

The firm said it current expects home prices nationwide to fall another 8 percent from current levels, assuming unemployment of 7 percent; its estimates for California and Florida, however, were more severe. JP Morgan said that its base-case suggests another 10 percent in price declines in California, while prices in Florida may fall another 16 percent.

The expectations for a further drop translate into a 25 percent peak-to-trough drop in prices nationwide; prices in California and Florida will have fallen 44 percent in such a scenario, the company suggested.

Should unemployment reach 8 percent — the scenario for a severe recession, under JP Morgan’s estimation — those price declines would be much worse. In such a case, California could see home prices fall another 24 percent from current levels, while Florida would drop 36 percent and nationally home prices would fall 20 percent from where they are currently. Such a worst-case scenario would drive an extra $54 billion in losses in the WaMu loan portfolio, were it to pass.”

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/09/26/jp-morgan-calif-florida-face-further-home-price-declines/

[SD Transplant]

Now we’re on the right trend since I love what I’m reading. I am a Beretta fan.

I own a 12ga 3inch o/u sporting white onyx (sporting). I get to shoot some trap/skeet next to the Miramar base.

I also love the 9mm 92F Brigaddier…great

Too many to list…but I own and love the above.

[img_assist|nid=9042|title=white onyx 12 GA Beretta|desc=white onyx 12 GA.jpg|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=53]

[SD Transplant]

Now we’re on the right trend since I love what I’m reading. I am a Beretta fan.

I own a 12ga 3inch o/u sporting white onyx (sporting). I get to shoot some trap/skeet next to the Miramar base.

I also love the 9mm 92F Brigaddier…great

Too many to list…but I own and love the above.

[img_assist|nid=9042|title=white onyx 12 GA Beretta|desc=white onyx 12 GA.jpg|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=53]

[SD Transplant]

Now we’re on the right trend since I love what I’m reading. I am a Beretta fan.

I own a 12ga 3inch o/u sporting white onyx (sporting). I get to shoot some trap/skeet next to the Miramar base.

I also love the 9mm 92F Brigaddier…great

Too many to list…but I own and love the above.

[img_assist|nid=9042|title=white onyx 12 GA Beretta|desc=white onyx 12 GA.jpg|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=53]

[SD Transplant]

Now we’re on the right trend since I love what I’m reading. I am a Beretta fan.

I own a 12ga 3inch o/u sporting white onyx (sporting). I get to shoot some trap/skeet next to the Miramar base.

I also love the 9mm 92F Brigaddier…great

Too many to list…but I own and love the above.

[img_assist|nid=9042|title=white onyx 12 GA Beretta|desc=white onyx 12 GA.jpg|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=53]

[SD Transplant]

Now we’re on the right trend since I love what I’m reading. I am a Beretta fan.

I own a 12ga 3inch o/u sporting white onyx (sporting). I get to shoot some trap/skeet next to the Miramar base.

I also love the 9mm 92F Brigaddier…great

Too many to list…but I own and love the above.

[img_assist|nid=9042|title=white onyx 12 GA Beretta|desc=white onyx 12 GA.jpg|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=53]

[SD Transplant]

The fundamental of our economy is TRUST. I hate to spell this to any of our left or right leaders, but trust is a hard to find nowadays.

An American worker could be the most productive worker in the world, but if the financial system isn’t working, a lay off is just around the corner (don’t forget, we’re broke…..we survive on a credit card & borrowed time). Before this mess, the US looked stunning like a GQ model, walking on Hollywooed Blvd, Armani suit, hair done, plenty of bling with some minor issues on the inside (they weren’t visible). Using the same analogy today, the rest of the world sees the US is looking more like the emty suit with our pockets empty…

I don’t expect investors and other countries/governments to be enticed to invest in the US the same way they did before not accounting for the new risk. Also, I expect that the cost of borrowing $ to go up significantly due to lack of fundamentals “TRUST”.

Hence, our productivity is high today and it could still remain high but with 10-15% unemployment as well……but TRUST is what’s more important.

[SD Transplant]

The fundamental of our economy is TRUST. I hate to spell this to any of our left or right leaders, but trust is a hard to find nowadays.

An American worker could be the most productive worker in the world, but if the financial system isn’t working, a lay off is just around the corner (don’t forget, we’re broke…..we survive on a credit card & borrowed time). Before this mess, the US looked stunning like a GQ model, walking on Hollywooed Blvd, Armani suit, hair done, plenty of bling with some minor issues on the inside (they weren’t visible). Using the same analogy today, the rest of the world sees the US is looking more like the emty suit with our pockets empty…

I don’t expect investors and other countries/governments to be enticed to invest in the US the same way they did before not accounting for the new risk. Also, I expect that the cost of borrowing $ to go up significantly due to lack of fundamentals “TRUST”.

Hence, our productivity is high today and it could still remain high but with 10-15% unemployment as well……but TRUST is what’s more important.

[SD Transplant]

The fundamental of our economy is TRUST. I hate to spell this to any of our left or right leaders, but trust is a hard to find nowadays.

An American worker could be the most productive worker in the world, but if the financial system isn’t working, a lay off is just around the corner (don’t forget, we’re broke…..we survive on a credit card & borrowed time). Before this mess, the US looked stunning like a GQ model, walking on Hollywooed Blvd, Armani suit, hair done, plenty of bling with some minor issues on the inside (they weren’t visible). Using the same analogy today, the rest of the world sees the US is looking more like the emty suit with our pockets empty…

I don’t expect investors and other countries/governments to be enticed to invest in the US the same way they did before not accounting for the new risk. Also, I expect that the cost of borrowing $ to go up significantly due to lack of fundamentals “TRUST”.

Hence, our productivity is high today and it could still remain high but with 10-15% unemployment as well……but TRUST is what’s more important.

[SD Transplant]

The fundamental of our economy is TRUST. I hate to spell this to any of our left or right leaders, but trust is a hard to find nowadays.

An American worker could be the most productive worker in the world, but if the financial system isn’t working, a lay off is just around the corner (don’t forget, we’re broke…..we survive on a credit card & borrowed time). Before this mess, the US looked stunning like a GQ model, walking on Hollywooed Blvd, Armani suit, hair done, plenty of bling with some minor issues on the inside (they weren’t visible). Using the same analogy today, the rest of the world sees the US is looking more like the emty suit with our pockets empty…

I don’t expect investors and other countries/governments to be enticed to invest in the US the same way they did before not accounting for the new risk. Also, I expect that the cost of borrowing $ to go up significantly due to lack of fundamentals “TRUST”.

Hence, our productivity is high today and it could still remain high but with 10-15% unemployment as well……but TRUST is what’s more important.

[SD Transplant]

The fundamental of our economy is TRUST. I hate to spell this to any of our left or right leaders, but trust is a hard to find nowadays.

An American worker could be the most productive worker in the world, but if the financial system isn’t working, a lay off is just around the corner (don’t forget, we’re broke…..we survive on a credit card & borrowed time). Before this mess, the US looked stunning like a GQ model, walking on Hollywooed Blvd, Armani suit, hair done, plenty of bling with some minor issues on the inside (they weren’t visible). Using the same analogy today, the rest of the world sees the US is looking more like the emty suit with our pockets empty…

I don’t expect investors and other countries/governments to be enticed to invest in the US the same way they did before not accounting for the new risk. Also, I expect that the cost of borrowing $ to go up significantly due to lack of fundamentals “TRUST”.

Hence, our productivity is high today and it could still remain high but with 10-15% unemployment as well……but TRUST is what’s more important.

[SD Transplant]

I think all of you bring up a great points. I guess we’re so stuck into the capitalist mindset, which is what we know/understand, that we can’t seem to see outside of box.

You’re right, once the goverent/tax payers bail out any private entity – based on the capitalist mind set – it makes no point in investing in them/system any longer(it is a false capitalist system). I see this bail out the greatest mistake ever – there is no way to return to what we know today as CAPITALISM.Who would trust it? Who could trust our MARKETING of – freedom of choice/dream achievers/free markets/lots of choices – when the government overwrites all the above in case of “major troubles”. It is not a sustainable system. This is just another delayed bubble – we bailed out the DOT COM bust with a HOUSING BOOM – there wasn’t a next bubble to run into the sky.

Think about it this way:

1) CAPITALIST VIEW: The American Dream: – Own a house (30 yrs investment + lifetime of taxes)…..plenty of options- as we know the system

2) SOCIALIST VIEW: The Choices Dream: – they already have government housing (dream already achieved)..the real issues – choices/diferentiation.

3) CAPITAL-SOCIAL (Oligarchy system): still have the choices/dreams – but don’t bother the political system which controls everything – we’re there right now – it makes NO differece if you vote DEM or REP in my mind….the cards are played, just the circus continues.
– I guess CHINA is already on the this track as well as Russia, in a different format. Due to plenty of financial pressures, mostly due to surviving on a credit card/borrowed money, the USA is transitioning to this system as well – in its own way.

[Author]

Posts