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SD Realtor
ParticipantPersonally I really believe that you need to get more regional to start making predictions about the various submarkets including the bottom of the market and the rate at which it will take to hit that bottom. The areas that you have mentioned, in my opinion have far more downside ahead of them then what they have already experienced. Conversely an area such as Eastlake, I believe has already shed alot of weight and while it will shed more, I feel it is much closer to a bottom then the previous areas. Out of the areas you mentioned I feel SEH is in for the biggest fall in the nearest future.
Here is an example… today I was up in Oceanside visiting a nice couple at the Summit. The news was not good. These people had a 3000 sf home and want to sell it. We looked at the active pending ratios and for homes that were 2700 feet and up there were 24 actives and 1 pending for the entire 92056 zip code. 1 PENDING!!! So this year I expect many neighborhoods to continue falling with strong numbers.
So I think that the answer to your question will hold a little more variance with respect to the amount and the timing of what will happen. For places like Scripps and CV well I am more confounded every day. Recently a SPECULATOR purchased home right around the corner from me just went into escrow. Not good… To me that indicates a slow ride down at least for Scripps…As always if we get a serious disruption in employment or interest rates we will get a more chunkier downfall.
SD Realtor
ParticipantPersonally I really believe that you need to get more regional to start making predictions about the various submarkets including the bottom of the market and the rate at which it will take to hit that bottom. The areas that you have mentioned, in my opinion have far more downside ahead of them then what they have already experienced. Conversely an area such as Eastlake, I believe has already shed alot of weight and while it will shed more, I feel it is much closer to a bottom then the previous areas. Out of the areas you mentioned I feel SEH is in for the biggest fall in the nearest future.
Here is an example… today I was up in Oceanside visiting a nice couple at the Summit. The news was not good. These people had a 3000 sf home and want to sell it. We looked at the active pending ratios and for homes that were 2700 feet and up there were 24 actives and 1 pending for the entire 92056 zip code. 1 PENDING!!! So this year I expect many neighborhoods to continue falling with strong numbers.
So I think that the answer to your question will hold a little more variance with respect to the amount and the timing of what will happen. For places like Scripps and CV well I am more confounded every day. Recently a SPECULATOR purchased home right around the corner from me just went into escrow. Not good… To me that indicates a slow ride down at least for Scripps…As always if we get a serious disruption in employment or interest rates we will get a more chunkier downfall.
SD Realtor
ParticipantPersonally I really believe that you need to get more regional to start making predictions about the various submarkets including the bottom of the market and the rate at which it will take to hit that bottom. The areas that you have mentioned, in my opinion have far more downside ahead of them then what they have already experienced. Conversely an area such as Eastlake, I believe has already shed alot of weight and while it will shed more, I feel it is much closer to a bottom then the previous areas. Out of the areas you mentioned I feel SEH is in for the biggest fall in the nearest future.
Here is an example… today I was up in Oceanside visiting a nice couple at the Summit. The news was not good. These people had a 3000 sf home and want to sell it. We looked at the active pending ratios and for homes that were 2700 feet and up there were 24 actives and 1 pending for the entire 92056 zip code. 1 PENDING!!! So this year I expect many neighborhoods to continue falling with strong numbers.
So I think that the answer to your question will hold a little more variance with respect to the amount and the timing of what will happen. For places like Scripps and CV well I am more confounded every day. Recently a SPECULATOR purchased home right around the corner from me just went into escrow. Not good… To me that indicates a slow ride down at least for Scripps…As always if we get a serious disruption in employment or interest rates we will get a more chunkier downfall.
SD Realtor
ParticipantPersonally I really believe that you need to get more regional to start making predictions about the various submarkets including the bottom of the market and the rate at which it will take to hit that bottom. The areas that you have mentioned, in my opinion have far more downside ahead of them then what they have already experienced. Conversely an area such as Eastlake, I believe has already shed alot of weight and while it will shed more, I feel it is much closer to a bottom then the previous areas. Out of the areas you mentioned I feel SEH is in for the biggest fall in the nearest future.
Here is an example… today I was up in Oceanside visiting a nice couple at the Summit. The news was not good. These people had a 3000 sf home and want to sell it. We looked at the active pending ratios and for homes that were 2700 feet and up there were 24 actives and 1 pending for the entire 92056 zip code. 1 PENDING!!! So this year I expect many neighborhoods to continue falling with strong numbers.
So I think that the answer to your question will hold a little more variance with respect to the amount and the timing of what will happen. For places like Scripps and CV well I am more confounded every day. Recently a SPECULATOR purchased home right around the corner from me just went into escrow. Not good… To me that indicates a slow ride down at least for Scripps…As always if we get a serious disruption in employment or interest rates we will get a more chunkier downfall.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJosh apparently you missed my point.
My point was,
“Just don’t try to predict that the market will follow a certain direction because of your own thoughts of other peoples financial assets.”
This was for the most part in response to this post by you earlier in this thread,
“Red herring alert. You still have to have a fat down payment for conforming loans. Fat is defined as 20%. I can barely scrape together 20% on 400k. Raising loan limits isn’t going to change that.”
So let me try again, the market doesn’t care what you personally have or don’t have. Your asset class is of no consequence to this market and neither is mine or sdrealtors or anyone elses.
Mine is not an argument about the market going down in desireable areas… it is, it has, and it will continue to do so. However making implications that you know very few people have 20% to put down is what I have an issue with. Honestly I think many more do then many people here care to admit or acknowledge. I am not saying that will bolster the market in any way or provide support level for various submarkets.
I try to simply keep my analysis of the direction of the market based on simple metrics that are factual (such as sales volume which you referred to in your later post and was a great argument) rather then making statements like the one you made that I referred to above in your earlier post.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJosh apparently you missed my point.
My point was,
“Just don’t try to predict that the market will follow a certain direction because of your own thoughts of other peoples financial assets.”
This was for the most part in response to this post by you earlier in this thread,
“Red herring alert. You still have to have a fat down payment for conforming loans. Fat is defined as 20%. I can barely scrape together 20% on 400k. Raising loan limits isn’t going to change that.”
So let me try again, the market doesn’t care what you personally have or don’t have. Your asset class is of no consequence to this market and neither is mine or sdrealtors or anyone elses.
Mine is not an argument about the market going down in desireable areas… it is, it has, and it will continue to do so. However making implications that you know very few people have 20% to put down is what I have an issue with. Honestly I think many more do then many people here care to admit or acknowledge. I am not saying that will bolster the market in any way or provide support level for various submarkets.
I try to simply keep my analysis of the direction of the market based on simple metrics that are factual (such as sales volume which you referred to in your later post and was a great argument) rather then making statements like the one you made that I referred to above in your earlier post.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJosh apparently you missed my point.
My point was,
“Just don’t try to predict that the market will follow a certain direction because of your own thoughts of other peoples financial assets.”
This was for the most part in response to this post by you earlier in this thread,
“Red herring alert. You still have to have a fat down payment for conforming loans. Fat is defined as 20%. I can barely scrape together 20% on 400k. Raising loan limits isn’t going to change that.”
So let me try again, the market doesn’t care what you personally have or don’t have. Your asset class is of no consequence to this market and neither is mine or sdrealtors or anyone elses.
Mine is not an argument about the market going down in desireable areas… it is, it has, and it will continue to do so. However making implications that you know very few people have 20% to put down is what I have an issue with. Honestly I think many more do then many people here care to admit or acknowledge. I am not saying that will bolster the market in any way or provide support level for various submarkets.
I try to simply keep my analysis of the direction of the market based on simple metrics that are factual (such as sales volume which you referred to in your later post and was a great argument) rather then making statements like the one you made that I referred to above in your earlier post.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJosh apparently you missed my point.
My point was,
“Just don’t try to predict that the market will follow a certain direction because of your own thoughts of other peoples financial assets.”
This was for the most part in response to this post by you earlier in this thread,
“Red herring alert. You still have to have a fat down payment for conforming loans. Fat is defined as 20%. I can barely scrape together 20% on 400k. Raising loan limits isn’t going to change that.”
So let me try again, the market doesn’t care what you personally have or don’t have. Your asset class is of no consequence to this market and neither is mine or sdrealtors or anyone elses.
Mine is not an argument about the market going down in desireable areas… it is, it has, and it will continue to do so. However making implications that you know very few people have 20% to put down is what I have an issue with. Honestly I think many more do then many people here care to admit or acknowledge. I am not saying that will bolster the market in any way or provide support level for various submarkets.
I try to simply keep my analysis of the direction of the market based on simple metrics that are factual (such as sales volume which you referred to in your later post and was a great argument) rather then making statements like the one you made that I referred to above in your earlier post.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJosh apparently you missed my point.
My point was,
“Just don’t try to predict that the market will follow a certain direction because of your own thoughts of other peoples financial assets.”
This was for the most part in response to this post by you earlier in this thread,
“Red herring alert. You still have to have a fat down payment for conforming loans. Fat is defined as 20%. I can barely scrape together 20% on 400k. Raising loan limits isn’t going to change that.”
So let me try again, the market doesn’t care what you personally have or don’t have. Your asset class is of no consequence to this market and neither is mine or sdrealtors or anyone elses.
Mine is not an argument about the market going down in desireable areas… it is, it has, and it will continue to do so. However making implications that you know very few people have 20% to put down is what I have an issue with. Honestly I think many more do then many people here care to admit or acknowledge. I am not saying that will bolster the market in any way or provide support level for various submarkets.
I try to simply keep my analysis of the direction of the market based on simple metrics that are factual (such as sales volume which you referred to in your later post and was a great argument) rather then making statements like the one you made that I referred to above in your earlier post.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHomeshopping, builders are still way out in front of resellers on agressively pricing. The “wave” of foreclosures that you are waiting for that will compare to a 4500-5000 sf home on the lot size you want is not what I would call, right around the corner. Will it come? Sometime in the future for those exact homes, in the exact development you want they may but it may be quite awhile. For the foreseeable future you will find better deals with the builders.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHomeshopping, builders are still way out in front of resellers on agressively pricing. The “wave” of foreclosures that you are waiting for that will compare to a 4500-5000 sf home on the lot size you want is not what I would call, right around the corner. Will it come? Sometime in the future for those exact homes, in the exact development you want they may but it may be quite awhile. For the foreseeable future you will find better deals with the builders.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHomeshopping, builders are still way out in front of resellers on agressively pricing. The “wave” of foreclosures that you are waiting for that will compare to a 4500-5000 sf home on the lot size you want is not what I would call, right around the corner. Will it come? Sometime in the future for those exact homes, in the exact development you want they may but it may be quite awhile. For the foreseeable future you will find better deals with the builders.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHomeshopping, builders are still way out in front of resellers on agressively pricing. The “wave” of foreclosures that you are waiting for that will compare to a 4500-5000 sf home on the lot size you want is not what I would call, right around the corner. Will it come? Sometime in the future for those exact homes, in the exact development you want they may but it may be quite awhile. For the foreseeable future you will find better deals with the builders.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHomeshopping, builders are still way out in front of resellers on agressively pricing. The “wave” of foreclosures that you are waiting for that will compare to a 4500-5000 sf home on the lot size you want is not what I would call, right around the corner. Will it come? Sometime in the future for those exact homes, in the exact development you want they may but it may be quite awhile. For the foreseeable future you will find better deals with the builders.
SD Realtor
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