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February 2, 2012 at 9:08 AM in reply to: When does a property status get changed to pending/contingent? #737246February 2, 2012 at 8:15 AM in reply to: Redfin shows San Diego Inventory at 31% below the two year low… WHY? #737239
SD Realtor
ParticipantI don’t think that is a bad hypothesis at all yoyo. Statistics seem to be pointing your way even though some people don’t want to hear that. It doesn’t happen all at once but it is slowly happening.
February 1, 2012 at 4:40 PM in reply to: Redfin shows San Diego Inventory at 31% below the two year low… WHY? #737183ParticipantSorry if I was mistaken yoyo… I think there are alot of factors involved and manipulation is just one of them. I think Temeculaguy brought up a good point. To summarize this is simply the acculated results of everything that has happened over the past few years. We will see price increases over the next few years as well AS LONG AS interest rates stay low.
February 1, 2012 at 3:51 PM in reply to: Redfin shows San Diego Inventory at 31% below the two year low… WHY? #737174ParticipantSupply has been manipulated for the past 4 years. Manipulation takes many forms. If we didn’t have the manipulation you would have seen astronomical inventory over the past few years. Manipulation takes many forms. Remember the govt 10k incentive to buy back in 09? Do you ever wonder about the tens of thousands of squatters and people who havent paid a penny to the mortgage servicing company in months and sometimes years before being kicked out? How about all of the programs to modify loans and forgive debt?
These are all forms of manipulation because the end result is that these homes did not come to the market in a timely manner and they should have. We should have seen a glut of inventory and that would have pushed prices down.
None of this just started… it has been in place quite awhile.
Do you actually think it is a free market?
February 1, 2012 at 3:16 PM in reply to: Redfin shows San Diego Inventory at 31% below the two year low… WHY? #737172ParticipantThis is pretty much what some of us have been saying. As sdr said, alot of it has to do with seasonality. Some of it also has to do with demand and an improved local market. Some of it also is a supply side issue.
There is a post about the foreclosure tsunami and lack thereof.
Also the continuation and even growth of the current govt manipulation of the market with regards to what would be distressed supply will continue. In fact there was another announcement today just about that.
Get used to it. (the manipulation that is). Supply will grow as sdr said.
January 31, 2012 at 8:18 PM in reply to: From the UT: SD real estate firm cuts ties with Trulia, Zillow #737114ParticipantI liked the post from TG as well. Once more, the bulk of the sales on the third party sites are simply MLS listing through the IDX service. As previously stated, once these third party sites get hold of the data, it becomes problematic because there is not a comprehensive mechanism in place to validate what they post. This leads to the frustrating experiences that TG spoke of.
This is not to say that the current system cannot be improved upon because it can. As sdr said Sandicor is attempting to make a consumer site which is a good idea.
There is room for improvement in the current system. I definitely agree with that.
ParticipantMy suggestion would be to come and rent for awhile and get to know the city. Taking a description from an internet blog can be helpful but I would not limit myself to it. I also know plenty of transplants that wanted one thing when they came out and when they spent time here, they ended up locating in parts of the county that they never even thought about. You may find that you are enchanted with a north county coastal area or want the Poway schools after you spend time here. Nothing wrong with taking walks on the beach every day or two.
Spend some time, check it out, then decide.
ParticipantI don’t know BG… I just don’t know.
I think the catalyst will begin with foreign creditors moving out of the auctions. I don’t really know what triggers that and have given up trying to prognosticate on it. It could be when our debt service to gdp ratio hits some trigger point. It could be a geopolitical conflict… It could be a certain low that the dollar hits…
I never really thought that we could fool the world this long. However as pr and even brian have pointed out, there are not many alternatives out there.
There will be someday though.
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Lets not forget, some of it is already slowly playing out. Look at prices of food/water/utilities over the past few years.
ParticipantOnce more, the eye is not on the main topic. The main topic is not how many squatters, or how many delinquencies or how many foreclosures. The main topic is not the banks deciding to keep or dump the assets.
It is all about securitization. Plain and simple. In the early 90’s there was not nearly the level of sophisticated securitization that there was in 2008. I am sorry you guys cannot wrap your arms around it. You are looking at the 5 foot level with the problem is 20 feet tall.
The time for natural causes within the real estate market itself to determine the direction of that market vanished back in 2008. You are clinging to a free market structure that is gone. You are presupposing that banks can and will make independent decisions and that is long gone as well.
Sorry to break that to you. What will happen will be that the burden of overall debt will break the back of this camel.
You just don’t seem to understand that the govt is all in… it is not a choice of the banks. It doesn’t really matter what they want to do because they will be “incentivized” to play properly.
You will see.
BTW nice backpedal markmax… it is “likely” to rain between now and the end of the year as well.
ParticipantIt is very simple and easy to argue. You have stated you see a crash coming at the end of the year. I have said no crash unless interest rates go up because the govt has complied with Wall Street and will use every last dollar of tax revenue available to prop up the market.
Lets check in at the end of the year and see who is correct. You have not stated what will crash the market.
Let me know what you believe will crash the market.
I also assume that you will not buy a home until the market crashes.
Care to make a wager that the loser will not post again?
ParticipantNo there has not been any elimination of outcomes.
My god man read any of my posts… What the hell is wrong with you. I have said time and time and time again that interest rates will drive the next depreciation cycle. Where have I ever said otherwise?
What do you not understand? What outcome has been eliminated?
ParticipantJeez markmax of course the market will crack back.
The only crack back will come because of interest rates, not because of inventory growth due to foreclosures.
Once interest rates move, then it will crack back and hard. In the absence of interest rate movement, no the market will not crash.
You tell me then, in the absence of interest rate hikes, you tell me how the market will crash.
ParticipantDesmond they have been here since 06.
Of course the answers are all no. In a free market the asset valuations are a simply function of supply and demand.
Wake up dude… it is not about the real estate market it is about the securities and homes are the assets. Those valuations need to be maintained because of the choices made in 2008. Look back to the early 90s and the RTC. Liquidation of assets was the correct way to deal with the problem. Now look to 2008. Liquidation did not occur. My god it is not that hard to understand.
The govt programs are in place because the govt has no choice. When the moment of truth came back in 2008 for the govt to let the institutions all sink, the govt blinked. They chose NOT to let them sink.
If you have ever read my posts I was all in favor of letting it all go to hell, let them sink, let the market reflect the true asset values and let it start fresh. Plenty of other posters cite that what the govt did was the best move because it was the only move. Frankly I call bullshit to that but that doesn’t really matter now does it.
All the govt programs are in place because that is the only way to perpetuate the essential fraudulent asset valuations by market manipulation. So in essence those programs have been perpetuating that fraud so yes they are working.
Participantmarkmax as usual you are missing the point. Your perspective on whether the programs are failures or not is jaded. The object of these programs was simply to kick the can down the road all at taxpayer expense. In that sense, these programs are doing just what they are intended to do. That is what Wall Street wanted all along and that is what Wall Street knew the govt would do. So to call these programs a failure is incorrect. The result is a horrible manipulated market where assets are not sold at the correct value. It is a long running manipulated fraudulent market where all the risk is taxpayer funded and all the reward goes to Wall Street.
What we all know is that as bubbles inflate and then pop, the larger the market that the bubble is in, the more peripheral damage is done when the bubble pops. We went from an equities bubble to a real estate bubble. The equities bubble popped and that hurt… then the real estate bubble popped and that hurt more…. really bad… now we have the bond market bubble… when that pops it will be even worse. I know that and you know that… and anyone buying a home should know that…
However when will that happen? Nobody knows that. What I can say is that the train has left the station and the govt has been and will continue to be complicit with Wall Street in manipulating the real estate market all done with insurance for the overvalued assets provided to investors at taxpayer expense. So in reality the programs are doing exactly what they were intended to do. The programs stumble and bumble along and the govt has to keep throwing more and more money and incentives to investors and servicers to get them to use the programs.
If you believe that the bond market will crash in the near future, there is no reason to buy a home. If you think the market will be flooded with reo properties (like it should have been and should presently be if the market was not so fundamentally manipulated) and you will see substantial price drops because you think the real estate market is a free market… then you are incorrect.
ParticipantNow you are talking FLU. I am implementing that strategy as well.
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