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SD Realtor
ParticipantWho is being “forced” to rent? Are you forced to rent in Encinitas because you dont WANT to buy in Spring Valley?
Yes Texas does have land… nothing but land. It also has high humidity, is HOT as all hell, and has no features… no mountains. You have two months of decent weather and then it is either hot as hell or very cold. You cannot go to big bear to snowboard and then drive to the beach in the same afternoon. Perhaps that is the reason why people pay 216k for nice spread out there.
Last time I checked, the one axiom of real estate that still holds to be fairly true is location. To be angered at the established wealthy people of this country and portend that they are “forcing” you to rent by gobbling up all the precious homes in Carmel Valley or Encinitas is understandable. However to think you are somehow entitled to live in these or any other areas is something I disagree with. If you can afford to live there but CHOOSE not to, then that is okay, and good for you for not choosing to pay the crazy fees. However you are not entitled to live there any more then a slacker is, or anymore then a high priced attorney is.
When it boils down to it, the laws of supply and demand hold true. So it is okay to demand that the wealthy should not get to own property in desireable areas then is it also okay for the wealthy not to own turd homes in crappy neighborhoods for section 8 rentals?
You may love to bring up the Texas comparison but also there is inherent unfairness as well. While there is no income tax you will pay 2-3 percent property tax. So a poor person with little to no income gets killed owning a home. A guy with a decent income pays much less proportionally of his paycheck to own his home then a poor man does.
Finally and still left unaddressed is that the golden age of a govt controlled system still doesn’t address the limited desireable areas. In a price controlled situation, who would get the home in a nice area? Would it be a lottery? Would it be a govt official? Would it be a friend of a friend? When a family gets a nice home in a nice area why would they ever sell at all?
Again, I don’t have answers right now but I don’t think that all the wealthy people are buying up homes and stealing all the inventory from nicer areas. I think that conversely, the nicer the neighborhood, the less you have wealthy people buying homes and making them rentals.
ParticipantWho is being “forced” to rent? Are you forced to rent in Encinitas because you dont WANT to buy in Spring Valley?
Yes Texas does have land… nothing but land. It also has high humidity, is HOT as all hell, and has no features… no mountains. You have two months of decent weather and then it is either hot as hell or very cold. You cannot go to big bear to snowboard and then drive to the beach in the same afternoon. Perhaps that is the reason why people pay 216k for nice spread out there.
Last time I checked, the one axiom of real estate that still holds to be fairly true is location. To be angered at the established wealthy people of this country and portend that they are “forcing” you to rent by gobbling up all the precious homes in Carmel Valley or Encinitas is understandable. However to think you are somehow entitled to live in these or any other areas is something I disagree with. If you can afford to live there but CHOOSE not to, then that is okay, and good for you for not choosing to pay the crazy fees. However you are not entitled to live there any more then a slacker is, or anymore then a high priced attorney is.
When it boils down to it, the laws of supply and demand hold true. So it is okay to demand that the wealthy should not get to own property in desireable areas then is it also okay for the wealthy not to own turd homes in crappy neighborhoods for section 8 rentals?
You may love to bring up the Texas comparison but also there is inherent unfairness as well. While there is no income tax you will pay 2-3 percent property tax. So a poor person with little to no income gets killed owning a home. A guy with a decent income pays much less proportionally of his paycheck to own his home then a poor man does.
Finally and still left unaddressed is that the golden age of a govt controlled system still doesn’t address the limited desireable areas. In a price controlled situation, who would get the home in a nice area? Would it be a lottery? Would it be a govt official? Would it be a friend of a friend? When a family gets a nice home in a nice area why would they ever sell at all?
Again, I don’t have answers right now but I don’t think that all the wealthy people are buying up homes and stealing all the inventory from nicer areas. I think that conversely, the nicer the neighborhood, the less you have wealthy people buying homes and making them rentals.
ParticipantWho is being “forced” to rent? Are you forced to rent in Encinitas because you dont WANT to buy in Spring Valley?
Yes Texas does have land… nothing but land. It also has high humidity, is HOT as all hell, and has no features… no mountains. You have two months of decent weather and then it is either hot as hell or very cold. You cannot go to big bear to snowboard and then drive to the beach in the same afternoon. Perhaps that is the reason why people pay 216k for nice spread out there.
Last time I checked, the one axiom of real estate that still holds to be fairly true is location. To be angered at the established wealthy people of this country and portend that they are “forcing” you to rent by gobbling up all the precious homes in Carmel Valley or Encinitas is understandable. However to think you are somehow entitled to live in these or any other areas is something I disagree with. If you can afford to live there but CHOOSE not to, then that is okay, and good for you for not choosing to pay the crazy fees. However you are not entitled to live there any more then a slacker is, or anymore then a high priced attorney is.
When it boils down to it, the laws of supply and demand hold true. So it is okay to demand that the wealthy should not get to own property in desireable areas then is it also okay for the wealthy not to own turd homes in crappy neighborhoods for section 8 rentals?
You may love to bring up the Texas comparison but also there is inherent unfairness as well. While there is no income tax you will pay 2-3 percent property tax. So a poor person with little to no income gets killed owning a home. A guy with a decent income pays much less proportionally of his paycheck to own his home then a poor man does.
Finally and still left unaddressed is that the golden age of a govt controlled system still doesn’t address the limited desireable areas. In a price controlled situation, who would get the home in a nice area? Would it be a lottery? Would it be a govt official? Would it be a friend of a friend? When a family gets a nice home in a nice area why would they ever sell at all?
Again, I don’t have answers right now but I don’t think that all the wealthy people are buying up homes and stealing all the inventory from nicer areas. I think that conversely, the nicer the neighborhood, the less you have wealthy people buying homes and making them rentals.
ParticipantMercedes and Seaward you guys are not alone in the zips you have mentioned and the price points as well.
I think that 92122, 92124, and 92131 have the potentially the highest probability of price reductions in the next 1-2 years out simply because of the current median prices in those areas.
92126 is a bit tougher of a play. The 300k 1200 sf 92126 seems to have hit a support level that is not just consisting of purchases by owner occupants but also of investors as well. So I think it will be challending to see that having alot of play left in to the downside but I suppose anything could happen with an inventory flood.
92129 is crazytown right now. I can see it going back down again but even in the hard slide of late 08 it seemed to find support levels in the high 400s and mid 500s depending on which part of 92129 you were looking in. There are some really strong elementary schools down off of Black Mountain Road that draw alot of homeshoppers there.
Other areas you guys may want to consider could be 92119 or 92124 as well. A little lower price but also lower desired may be 92123.
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I know I am not giving you answers you crave though. I know you really want to know will it be worthwhile to wait. Can I promise you a 15% decline in a year or two? I cannot. I wish I could. If there was not wizard of barney frank I would be more confident. If the market were not manipulate and if the government was not controlled by Wall St I would say yes. Surely unemployment and distress would cause one to say this is a no brainer. I still say that your best bet is a hope of China shutting down the credit pipeline causing interest rate shock. Sorry for not being able to give you a for sure… Maybe in a few months things will trend in a more clear direction. Sounds like you both have some time which is good. Lets see how things look in the spring.
ParticipantMercedes and Seaward you guys are not alone in the zips you have mentioned and the price points as well.
I think that 92122, 92124, and 92131 have the potentially the highest probability of price reductions in the next 1-2 years out simply because of the current median prices in those areas.
92126 is a bit tougher of a play. The 300k 1200 sf 92126 seems to have hit a support level that is not just consisting of purchases by owner occupants but also of investors as well. So I think it will be challending to see that having alot of play left in to the downside but I suppose anything could happen with an inventory flood.
92129 is crazytown right now. I can see it going back down again but even in the hard slide of late 08 it seemed to find support levels in the high 400s and mid 500s depending on which part of 92129 you were looking in. There are some really strong elementary schools down off of Black Mountain Road that draw alot of homeshoppers there.
Other areas you guys may want to consider could be 92119 or 92124 as well. A little lower price but also lower desired may be 92123.
*************
I know I am not giving you answers you crave though. I know you really want to know will it be worthwhile to wait. Can I promise you a 15% decline in a year or two? I cannot. I wish I could. If there was not wizard of barney frank I would be more confident. If the market were not manipulate and if the government was not controlled by Wall St I would say yes. Surely unemployment and distress would cause one to say this is a no brainer. I still say that your best bet is a hope of China shutting down the credit pipeline causing interest rate shock. Sorry for not being able to give you a for sure… Maybe in a few months things will trend in a more clear direction. Sounds like you both have some time which is good. Lets see how things look in the spring.
ParticipantMercedes and Seaward you guys are not alone in the zips you have mentioned and the price points as well.
I think that 92122, 92124, and 92131 have the potentially the highest probability of price reductions in the next 1-2 years out simply because of the current median prices in those areas.
92126 is a bit tougher of a play. The 300k 1200 sf 92126 seems to have hit a support level that is not just consisting of purchases by owner occupants but also of investors as well. So I think it will be challending to see that having alot of play left in to the downside but I suppose anything could happen with an inventory flood.
92129 is crazytown right now. I can see it going back down again but even in the hard slide of late 08 it seemed to find support levels in the high 400s and mid 500s depending on which part of 92129 you were looking in. There are some really strong elementary schools down off of Black Mountain Road that draw alot of homeshoppers there.
Other areas you guys may want to consider could be 92119 or 92124 as well. A little lower price but also lower desired may be 92123.
*************
I know I am not giving you answers you crave though. I know you really want to know will it be worthwhile to wait. Can I promise you a 15% decline in a year or two? I cannot. I wish I could. If there was not wizard of barney frank I would be more confident. If the market were not manipulate and if the government was not controlled by Wall St I would say yes. Surely unemployment and distress would cause one to say this is a no brainer. I still say that your best bet is a hope of China shutting down the credit pipeline causing interest rate shock. Sorry for not being able to give you a for sure… Maybe in a few months things will trend in a more clear direction. Sounds like you both have some time which is good. Lets see how things look in the spring.
ParticipantMercedes and Seaward you guys are not alone in the zips you have mentioned and the price points as well.
I think that 92122, 92124, and 92131 have the potentially the highest probability of price reductions in the next 1-2 years out simply because of the current median prices in those areas.
92126 is a bit tougher of a play. The 300k 1200 sf 92126 seems to have hit a support level that is not just consisting of purchases by owner occupants but also of investors as well. So I think it will be challending to see that having alot of play left in to the downside but I suppose anything could happen with an inventory flood.
92129 is crazytown right now. I can see it going back down again but even in the hard slide of late 08 it seemed to find support levels in the high 400s and mid 500s depending on which part of 92129 you were looking in. There are some really strong elementary schools down off of Black Mountain Road that draw alot of homeshoppers there.
Other areas you guys may want to consider could be 92119 or 92124 as well. A little lower price but also lower desired may be 92123.
*************
I know I am not giving you answers you crave though. I know you really want to know will it be worthwhile to wait. Can I promise you a 15% decline in a year or two? I cannot. I wish I could. If there was not wizard of barney frank I would be more confident. If the market were not manipulate and if the government was not controlled by Wall St I would say yes. Surely unemployment and distress would cause one to say this is a no brainer. I still say that your best bet is a hope of China shutting down the credit pipeline causing interest rate shock. Sorry for not being able to give you a for sure… Maybe in a few months things will trend in a more clear direction. Sounds like you both have some time which is good. Lets see how things look in the spring.
ParticipantMercedes and Seaward you guys are not alone in the zips you have mentioned and the price points as well.
I think that 92122, 92124, and 92131 have the potentially the highest probability of price reductions in the next 1-2 years out simply because of the current median prices in those areas.
92126 is a bit tougher of a play. The 300k 1200 sf 92126 seems to have hit a support level that is not just consisting of purchases by owner occupants but also of investors as well. So I think it will be challending to see that having alot of play left in to the downside but I suppose anything could happen with an inventory flood.
92129 is crazytown right now. I can see it going back down again but even in the hard slide of late 08 it seemed to find support levels in the high 400s and mid 500s depending on which part of 92129 you were looking in. There are some really strong elementary schools down off of Black Mountain Road that draw alot of homeshoppers there.
Other areas you guys may want to consider could be 92119 or 92124 as well. A little lower price but also lower desired may be 92123.
*************
I know I am not giving you answers you crave though. I know you really want to know will it be worthwhile to wait. Can I promise you a 15% decline in a year or two? I cannot. I wish I could. If there was not wizard of barney frank I would be more confident. If the market were not manipulate and if the government was not controlled by Wall St I would say yes. Surely unemployment and distress would cause one to say this is a no brainer. I still say that your best bet is a hope of China shutting down the credit pipeline causing interest rate shock. Sorry for not being able to give you a for sure… Maybe in a few months things will trend in a more clear direction. Sounds like you both have some time which is good. Lets see how things look in the spring.
ParticipantHawk I am not so sure I believe that. Given the underwriting standards of today, each additional home the guy purchases makes it harder and harder to get the next home. No way the guy is going to have 22 homes and a lender is gonna let him do this.
In my opinion after the second or third home it doesnt work. So what I think he may be doing is somehow concealing the homes by putting them in a corp or something of that nature. That way when he goes through underwriting it doesn’t show that he has all those homes.
Still your point makes sense. However alot of the investors we see at the sales are simply lackeys paid by the group of investors to make the offers. They get authorization to purchase for the corp. These corps are backed by lots of investors. These cases are cases of buy and flip as opposed to buy and hold. Not to say what the ratio is of new money to old money but I am sure there is a healthy mix.
ParticipantHawk I am not so sure I believe that. Given the underwriting standards of today, each additional home the guy purchases makes it harder and harder to get the next home. No way the guy is going to have 22 homes and a lender is gonna let him do this.
In my opinion after the second or third home it doesnt work. So what I think he may be doing is somehow concealing the homes by putting them in a corp or something of that nature. That way when he goes through underwriting it doesn’t show that he has all those homes.
Still your point makes sense. However alot of the investors we see at the sales are simply lackeys paid by the group of investors to make the offers. They get authorization to purchase for the corp. These corps are backed by lots of investors. These cases are cases of buy and flip as opposed to buy and hold. Not to say what the ratio is of new money to old money but I am sure there is a healthy mix.
ParticipantHawk I am not so sure I believe that. Given the underwriting standards of today, each additional home the guy purchases makes it harder and harder to get the next home. No way the guy is going to have 22 homes and a lender is gonna let him do this.
In my opinion after the second or third home it doesnt work. So what I think he may be doing is somehow concealing the homes by putting them in a corp or something of that nature. That way when he goes through underwriting it doesn’t show that he has all those homes.
Still your point makes sense. However alot of the investors we see at the sales are simply lackeys paid by the group of investors to make the offers. They get authorization to purchase for the corp. These corps are backed by lots of investors. These cases are cases of buy and flip as opposed to buy and hold. Not to say what the ratio is of new money to old money but I am sure there is a healthy mix.
ParticipantHawk I am not so sure I believe that. Given the underwriting standards of today, each additional home the guy purchases makes it harder and harder to get the next home. No way the guy is going to have 22 homes and a lender is gonna let him do this.
In my opinion after the second or third home it doesnt work. So what I think he may be doing is somehow concealing the homes by putting them in a corp or something of that nature. That way when he goes through underwriting it doesn’t show that he has all those homes.
Still your point makes sense. However alot of the investors we see at the sales are simply lackeys paid by the group of investors to make the offers. They get authorization to purchase for the corp. These corps are backed by lots of investors. These cases are cases of buy and flip as opposed to buy and hold. Not to say what the ratio is of new money to old money but I am sure there is a healthy mix.
ParticipantHawk I am not so sure I believe that. Given the underwriting standards of today, each additional home the guy purchases makes it harder and harder to get the next home. No way the guy is going to have 22 homes and a lender is gonna let him do this.
In my opinion after the second or third home it doesnt work. So what I think he may be doing is somehow concealing the homes by putting them in a corp or something of that nature. That way when he goes through underwriting it doesn’t show that he has all those homes.
Still your point makes sense. However alot of the investors we see at the sales are simply lackeys paid by the group of investors to make the offers. They get authorization to purchase for the corp. These corps are backed by lots of investors. These cases are cases of buy and flip as opposed to buy and hold. Not to say what the ratio is of new money to old money but I am sure there is a healthy mix.
ParticipantSorry Cricket but it is not just “here”. Go to Los Angeles and try to live on the west side. Go to the bay area. Trying to compare the coast of California to anywhere other then the coast of California is simply not realistic. Housing is so expensive here because people payed to live in those areas.
I feel like I am missing something. Please point out why I feel like the laws of supply and demand dont apply anymore?
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