[SD Realtor]

Tough to get what ya want in CV. Sellers there tend to be really challenging and not as much distress as you would hope for. There is a smaller sfh that I am sure you have seen that I had the listing “verbally” according to the seller but lost out on because his wifes friend is an agent. I would speculate that my views were pessimistic as my price point was definitely below where the seller wanted. So it has been on the market now at a price much higher then my recommendation with no takers. Conversely the owner has a ton of equity and is a professor at UCSD and doesn’t have any compelling need to get rid of the home. Lots of not really motivated situations like this.

[SD Realtor]

Tough to get what ya want in CV. Sellers there tend to be really challenging and not as much distress as you would hope for. There is a smaller sfh that I am sure you have seen that I had the listing “verbally” according to the seller but lost out on because his wifes friend is an agent. I would speculate that my views were pessimistic as my price point was definitely below where the seller wanted. So it has been on the market now at a price much higher then my recommendation with no takers. Conversely the owner has a ton of equity and is a professor at UCSD and doesn’t have any compelling need to get rid of the home. Lots of not really motivated situations like this.

[SD Realtor]

Tough to get what ya want in CV. Sellers there tend to be really challenging and not as much distress as you would hope for. There is a smaller sfh that I am sure you have seen that I had the listing “verbally” according to the seller but lost out on because his wifes friend is an agent. I would speculate that my views were pessimistic as my price point was definitely below where the seller wanted. So it has been on the market now at a price much higher then my recommendation with no takers. Conversely the owner has a ton of equity and is a professor at UCSD and doesn’t have any compelling need to get rid of the home. Lots of not really motivated situations like this.

[SD Realtor]

Tough to get what ya want in CV. Sellers there tend to be really challenging and not as much distress as you would hope for. There is a smaller sfh that I am sure you have seen that I had the listing “verbally” according to the seller but lost out on because his wifes friend is an agent. I would speculate that my views were pessimistic as my price point was definitely below where the seller wanted. So it has been on the market now at a price much higher then my recommendation with no takers. Conversely the owner has a ton of equity and is a professor at UCSD and doesn’t have any compelling need to get rid of the home. Lots of not really motivated situations like this.

[SD Realtor]

Agreed with all said, the only thing that bums me out about the bond market part is that it may be 1 yr, 5 yrs, 10 yrs… who knows…so tailoring your decision to be bond market based may not be a good idea. What good is a great school district if your kids are closer to college then kindergarden after the wait? Consideration of alternate housing markets in other states makes more sense to me then trying to time the bond market if the decision is strictly based on dollars and sense. Even if you rationalize it and say I will not buy but I will rent, and your rent is double or triple the cost of a mortgage in another state with strong school districts… then which is the better decision?

[SD Realtor]

Agreed with all said, the only thing that bums me out about the bond market part is that it may be 1 yr, 5 yrs, 10 yrs… who knows…so tailoring your decision to be bond market based may not be a good idea. What good is a great school district if your kids are closer to college then kindergarden after the wait? Consideration of alternate housing markets in other states makes more sense to me then trying to time the bond market if the decision is strictly based on dollars and sense. Even if you rationalize it and say I will not buy but I will rent, and your rent is double or triple the cost of a mortgage in another state with strong school districts… then which is the better decision?

[SD Realtor]

Agreed with all said, the only thing that bums me out about the bond market part is that it may be 1 yr, 5 yrs, 10 yrs… who knows…so tailoring your decision to be bond market based may not be a good idea. What good is a great school district if your kids are closer to college then kindergarden after the wait? Consideration of alternate housing markets in other states makes more sense to me then trying to time the bond market if the decision is strictly based on dollars and sense. Even if you rationalize it and say I will not buy but I will rent, and your rent is double or triple the cost of a mortgage in another state with strong school districts… then which is the better decision?

[SD Realtor]

Agreed with all said, the only thing that bums me out about the bond market part is that it may be 1 yr, 5 yrs, 10 yrs… who knows…so tailoring your decision to be bond market based may not be a good idea. What good is a great school district if your kids are closer to college then kindergarden after the wait? Consideration of alternate housing markets in other states makes more sense to me then trying to time the bond market if the decision is strictly based on dollars and sense. Even if you rationalize it and say I will not buy but I will rent, and your rent is double or triple the cost of a mortgage in another state with strong school districts… then which is the better decision?

[SD Realtor]

Agreed with all said, the only thing that bums me out about the bond market part is that it may be 1 yr, 5 yrs, 10 yrs… who knows…so tailoring your decision to be bond market based may not be a good idea. What good is a great school district if your kids are closer to college then kindergarden after the wait? Consideration of alternate housing markets in other states makes more sense to me then trying to time the bond market if the decision is strictly based on dollars and sense. Even if you rationalize it and say I will not buy but I will rent, and your rent is double or triple the cost of a mortgage in another state with strong school districts… then which is the better decision?

[SD Realtor]

kcal secular trends are full of cyclical gains. I understand that if you extend real estate out long enough you get a positive valuation. If I classify the current secular cycle we are in to have started in say 2005 or 2006 I believe we are still (IN MOST BUT NOT ALL) zip codes down. Obviously there is a variance in the amount. However to me until we have more of the debt and economic issues unwound, we should not declare the secular cycle over. True we have been in a cyclical appreciation cycle since the beginning of 2009 that has been artfully masterminded rather then naturally created. However I think that we will have some more slogging (ups and downs) in various zip codes until the bond market crashes. Now that may take a few years, maybe several. So one would say, okay you were not really in one secular cycle, you had a secular cycle from 98 to 06 that was bull, then a bear from 06 to 09, then a bull from 09 to XX, ten the bond market crashed and you had another bear for a few years. However in my book the bond market crashing would have simply been the final act in the debt charade that could have been properly fixed in the 06-09 cycle but never was. I guess it is really all semantics anyways. Whats in a name right?

To completely answer your question, yes I think when the bond market falls apart yes we will have a drop in all areas. Do a mortgage calculation for say a 500k loan at 5% verses 9%.

[SD Realtor]

kcal secular trends are full of cyclical gains. I understand that if you extend real estate out long enough you get a positive valuation. If I classify the current secular cycle we are in to have started in say 2005 or 2006 I believe we are still (IN MOST BUT NOT ALL) zip codes down. Obviously there is a variance in the amount. However to me until we have more of the debt and economic issues unwound, we should not declare the secular cycle over. True we have been in a cyclical appreciation cycle since the beginning of 2009 that has been artfully masterminded rather then naturally created. However I think that we will have some more slogging (ups and downs) in various zip codes until the bond market crashes. Now that may take a few years, maybe several. So one would say, okay you were not really in one secular cycle, you had a secular cycle from 98 to 06 that was bull, then a bear from 06 to 09, then a bull from 09 to XX, ten the bond market crashed and you had another bear for a few years. However in my book the bond market crashing would have simply been the final act in the debt charade that could have been properly fixed in the 06-09 cycle but never was. I guess it is really all semantics anyways. Whats in a name right?

To completely answer your question, yes I think when the bond market falls apart yes we will have a drop in all areas. Do a mortgage calculation for say a 500k loan at 5% verses 9%.

[SD Realtor]

kcal secular trends are full of cyclical gains. I understand that if you extend real estate out long enough you get a positive valuation. If I classify the current secular cycle we are in to have started in say 2005 or 2006 I believe we are still (IN MOST BUT NOT ALL) zip codes down. Obviously there is a variance in the amount. However to me until we have more of the debt and economic issues unwound, we should not declare the secular cycle over. True we have been in a cyclical appreciation cycle since the beginning of 2009 that has been artfully masterminded rather then naturally created. However I think that we will have some more slogging (ups and downs) in various zip codes until the bond market crashes. Now that may take a few years, maybe several. So one would say, okay you were not really in one secular cycle, you had a secular cycle from 98 to 06 that was bull, then a bear from 06 to 09, then a bull from 09 to XX, ten the bond market crashed and you had another bear for a few years. However in my book the bond market crashing would have simply been the final act in the debt charade that could have been properly fixed in the 06-09 cycle but never was. I guess it is really all semantics anyways. Whats in a name right?

To completely answer your question, yes I think when the bond market falls apart yes we will have a drop in all areas. Do a mortgage calculation for say a 500k loan at 5% verses 9%.

[SD Realtor]

kcal secular trends are full of cyclical gains. I understand that if you extend real estate out long enough you get a positive valuation. If I classify the current secular cycle we are in to have started in say 2005 or 2006 I believe we are still (IN MOST BUT NOT ALL) zip codes down. Obviously there is a variance in the amount. However to me until we have more of the debt and economic issues unwound, we should not declare the secular cycle over. True we have been in a cyclical appreciation cycle since the beginning of 2009 that has been artfully masterminded rather then naturally created. However I think that we will have some more slogging (ups and downs) in various zip codes until the bond market crashes. Now that may take a few years, maybe several. So one would say, okay you were not really in one secular cycle, you had a secular cycle from 98 to 06 that was bull, then a bear from 06 to 09, then a bull from 09 to XX, ten the bond market crashed and you had another bear for a few years. However in my book the bond market crashing would have simply been the final act in the debt charade that could have been properly fixed in the 06-09 cycle but never was. I guess it is really all semantics anyways. Whats in a name right?

To completely answer your question, yes I think when the bond market falls apart yes we will have a drop in all areas. Do a mortgage calculation for say a 500k loan at 5% verses 9%.

[SD Realtor]

kcal secular trends are full of cyclical gains. I understand that if you extend real estate out long enough you get a positive valuation. If I classify the current secular cycle we are in to have started in say 2005 or 2006 I believe we are still (IN MOST BUT NOT ALL) zip codes down. Obviously there is a variance in the amount. However to me until we have more of the debt and economic issues unwound, we should not declare the secular cycle over. True we have been in a cyclical appreciation cycle since the beginning of 2009 that has been artfully masterminded rather then naturally created. However I think that we will have some more slogging (ups and downs) in various zip codes until the bond market crashes. Now that may take a few years, maybe several. So one would say, okay you were not really in one secular cycle, you had a secular cycle from 98 to 06 that was bull, then a bear from 06 to 09, then a bull from 09 to XX, ten the bond market crashed and you had another bear for a few years. However in my book the bond market crashing would have simply been the final act in the debt charade that could have been properly fixed in the 06-09 cycle but never was. I guess it is really all semantics anyways. Whats in a name right?

To completely answer your question, yes I think when the bond market falls apart yes we will have a drop in all areas. Do a mortgage calculation for say a 500k loan at 5% verses 9%.

[SD Realtor]

I think you and I end up commenting on the number of buyers and psychology of buyers as well as true inventory that these types of buyers are looking for about every 18 months or so.

People who are newer to the blogs and read our posts on this particular subject probably instantly lump us into the “you have to buy now” type of realtors due to the content. As more experienced piggs would know that is not the point we are making and if anything we are more bearish/realistic then most realtors. It is simply observations through the experiences we have had that most don’t because of their own professions.

The point you made about the people you deal with daily is stark. One current client I have is an x engineer who got laid off in the dot com era, then started a wine company on his own and is younger then both of us and essentially is retired. All this was done in the last 8 years. Another client of mine is quite wealthy and the guy sells freeking hot dogs at county fairs in California. He works six months a year at best. Another client who is quite well off sells pies. A different client owns a bakery. Another one was a young couple whose father was an architect for casinos. Another one actually lives in China but wants to move back here in a few years.

The point here is that this is just a sample of people who are quite well off, but who want decent homes, not La Jolla or Del Mar, but nice homes of quality in neighborhoods that are established and more desired. Maybe LCV, or 4S, or CV or Encinitas, Scripps…. None of these are your typical engineers or attorneys but I have had lots and lots of those to. I am not saying the pool is infinite but I am saying that as my 20 years as an electrical engineer I never really conceived of all the “other people” out there competing against me in the housing market. I am not a grizzled veteran of real estate by any means either but in the 7 years doing it I have ABSOLUTELY learned much more about the market and psychology of the marketplace then I could have learned not doing it. It is hard to describe and post about so it would not surprise me if people reading the posts that we make when we talk about this particular subject shake their heads and go bullshit. I think bearishgurl sees it to as she has obviously been quite involved in RE. Anyways this doesnt mean prices will be forever infinitely high. No place is immune, period. We all know and realize that. However we have seen the govt react to the first leg of what I feel will now be a VERY LONG secular decline in RE. Forget about the 6 year cycle we had in the 90s. We are in for a grueling one here folks. As I have maintained for awhile the next big leg down will need a catalyst that not even the govt can withstand and that will be bond market driven. Will not happen for awhile. In the interim though we should get some slogging action and hopefully we will see more inventory growth and slower sales as the recession that never ended continues. However it will be very uneven and different areas of desire will continue to do well even or maintain pricing. Just depends on the psychology of the buyers. They will always be there.

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