[SD Realtor]

Those are good questions Scarlett. I don’t really have many answers for you. Agreed that we have seen strong price recovery, especially over the past 6 months. Yes there are still alot of people underwater but nowhere near as many as there were in 2009. Furthermore that number is being whittled down daily. No the banks are not holding onto foreclosures as well. The supposed tsunami believers who I always said were grasping at straws are totally empty handed. I didn’t quite get your last 3 lines. The low inventory is bad, as bad as it has ever been. Even in the bubble days we didn’t have inventory like this. It becomes challenging for everyone. It makes the decision making process border on irrational for some. Buying becomes fed by fear rather then logic. Appraisals become much harder becaue prices gap up rather then appreciate normally. It is just a situation that most buyers should not participate in unless they are adequately prepared.

[SD Realtor]

Why are you surprised that it is sold?

I sit here and post about how hot the market his and someone sees a home go on the market and is surpised it is in escrow 4 days later.

Here is a lesson. In a market like this you see the home immediately, you offer your highest and best. Otherwise you wait. Maybe in the summer we get some inventory buildup.

[SD Realtor]

The doors meant large scale multi-family apartments or townhome communities that are rental only. So you may have REITs that have investments in those sorts of holdings. As far as private equity activity at trustee sales alot of the competition that we would go up against would be groups of investors, sometimes large groups, that would make a couple of purchases per day to fix and flip. Note these were not Wall Street entities, just large groups of investors that had lots of money in their own “fund so to speak. None of these groups however were going for long term investment as a rental. If you go to say the Bruce Norris site, they will turn you on to longer term trust deeds that are targets for a long term rental holding.

I would also doubt a 100k home purchase as a hold for a rental. Once more, it is all market dependent right? Could it have happened in Phoenix? I guess. Could it happen in the areas I mentioned as a focus of this thread…not ever, even for 1000 sfrs.

[SD Realtor]

I am not sure I see it either. One of the problems is the misconceptions of what sort of properties are held by industrial players. If you think that some entity holds 2000 sfr homes in San Diego county and they are generating income through property rentals you are about as wrong as can be. I do know that there are plenty of investment groups that purchase properties for flips but that is immune to long term interest rate issues. Now if you are talking larger commercial holdings that have 100’s or 1000s of doors per project then you are getting to be more accurate.

Steering the conversation back to what is most important for the generic engineer looking for a home on the I15 corridor, or Carlsbad, or Carmel Valley or Encinitas… very tough times and these homes will not be affected at all by any perceived commercial activity. The demand for these homes will be set strictly by the affordability for that same engineer and that is strictly determined by interest rates as well as the overall supply/demand curve.

[SD Realtor]

It is never to late for spam.

[SD Realtor]

xbox in the end it will all blow up. However this time around the blow up will be much more catastrophic because it will be the bond market that explodes. It will play out pretty much as you have outlined above. We cannot monetize our debt. Currently the fed has what, 16% of our bonds or something like that. It is, and we are nearing the end game. However, nearing the end game is relative isn’t it? Is the explosion going to happen in 1 year? 3 years? 15 years? That is really the only question in my mind. As you saw my caviot is and has always been rates. So yes yes yes the explosion will dwarf 06. Instead of taking our medicine then, we were told that the sky was falling so we implemented policies that in my humble opinion were much worse then dealing with the problem and letting the market crater. Now we are in a spiral that some like to think will be resolved by inflation and an increased GDP. Personally I don’t see that happening. Moreover I see what you implied, and the only question is, when.

So absent of that event or “until that event happens” the San Diego housing market will move forward, driven by an excessive demand that has far outstripped supply. Prices have chunked forward and an equilibrium will be reached as the buyers pool will simply be reduced by many being priced out. Then we will level out and the inventory will catch up. We may see a modest dip but that is just the settling to the new equilibium and then a more subdued appreciation.

Now when the explosion happens…. wowsers it will be ugly. Unless the govt pulls their heads out of their ass and figures out we need to reduce spending and increase taxes and stop monetizing our debt.

[SD Realtor]

Yes utcsox I have been seeing the same things as Jim. Anybody that bought in 2011 or 2012 is not underwater at all. There are people who bought in 2003-2006 who may still be underwater but those who state that this is some sort of great overhang, or a prelude to some drastic event are wrong. Similarly those numbers are decreasing daily. As I have said we have legged up sharply, I would expect that things will level off and then return to a more subtle appreciation rate. However in my opinion the only reversal of the trend will come due to sharp increases in interest rates. Again this is the sub market and types of homes I have been discussing.

[SD Realtor]

In todays market I would take whatever I can get and get the work done myself. You don’t want to try to deal with the open market right now.

[SD Realtor]

Updating….

Definitely into uncharted waters (with regard to demand) for SFH for owner occupancy in desired school districts such as PUSD and TP. Also including Encinitas and Carlsbad. For the in between homes (maybe 500-800k) I am seeing pretty radical paradigm shifts. Homes that come on the market and are listed according to comps are getting swamped with multiple offers most of them overbid. Other sellers are simply listing several percent above comps. I can honestly say this is insanity. You can cross check this with JTR’s blog as he has similar data. For buyers I recommend you sit out for awhile or if you are going to go in, go in very strong and go in early. Forget about trying to get a deal, forget about trying to negotiate with counter offers because if your offer is not strong, you probably will not get a counter at all.

At some point prices will level off but right now the restricted supply has drastically altered market dynamics in these areas, (and probably many others)

[SD Realtor]

It may be gone by this weekend which is the biggest problem with an on fire market. Condition of the home, orientation, all of the factors that are generally used to gauge value become second or third tier because of the sheer quantity and velocity of demand compared to the supply.

[SD Realtor]

Your realtor should be able to help you out with your questions.

If both parties signed a WPA then it should be stated what the responsibilities are for buyer/seller under section 1.

As a side note all termite companies will contract out alot of the carpentry work associated with section 1 issues. Most of the time, they gaffe the seller heavily on these charges. It is not in anyway illegal or problematic for the seller to hire an independent 3rd party (their own contractor) to do the work themselves. After the work is done the termite company comes out to reinspect and will either issue a clearance or identify what needs to still be done.

Once more, your agent should be able to explain all of this to you so you can protect yourself. You may be getting a good deal on the home, but it is not so good if you have to do some extensive remediation after the sale that you didn’t know about.

As for the cost of the bathrooms, it sounds like the damage is indeed expensive. Without looking at it, I cannot comment on whether her quote is sufficient or not. You need to think about it though. Her obligation under the WPA is to remedy section 1 items. So as long as the dryrot is removed and damaged members are repaired, she can argue that section 1 items are remedied. However that alone may not mean that the job was done correctly and there could be big problems down the road because of this.

The amount of damage found by the termite inspector would be an indicator that yes, there is further damage in areas that cannot be inspected. However you will need to negotiate with the seller about inspecting this area. You, not the seller are responsible for due diligence including calling a mold guy out to take spore samples. Now if some of that inspection process can cause damage to the home, you better get that ironed out ahead of time.

[SD Realtor]

As much as you do not want a new neighbor, if you really want to help your neighbor, you should recommend that he sell the home, and find somewhere to rent that is within his budget. If he is 100% ltv he can get out no problem, or if need be he short sells. A new budget where he does not have to pay property taxes or homeowners insurance and can simply pay rent would help him alot more the deferring his debt with a loan mod.

[SD Realtor]

Wrong about investors on most all of he counts. The frenzied behavior we are seeing on SFR homes over 500 is limited in great part to owner occupants, not 100% but pretty close. The investors at this point are sticking to smaller condos or flips. Once more, it is simply a lack of inventory. Why do many of these buyers remain in the frenzy? Many of them believe that prices will continue to move and/or interest rates will rise and that prices will not be adversely affected. Conversely, some of them simply do not want to wait, they waited through 09, 10, 11, 12 and realized they screwed up. I am not saying they should or should not buy now, I am just saying what goes on in many buyers minds.

[SD Realtor]

It is not the case that people are crazy to get in. It is simply the case that the inventory that buyers have to choose from is a fraction of what it normally is. You don’t have a huge increase in buyers, you have a severely reduced supply. The result is that you get a frenzied atmosphere for any property out there.

[SD Realtor]

Well funny because the San Diego listing you showed is the home I listed for a client a few months ago. His parents passed away and they sold it. The reality is that the neighborhood is a mid 200k hood for homes but the flippers have come in, swamped it, and are now making good bucks on flips. It would not be considered a nice neighborhood with decent school districts by any means.

I do understand your point from a numerical standpoint. I think that the quantity of sub 400k homes in San Diego is higher simply because of a mix of lower income spread between the middle of the county. Additionally out to the east and northeast there are plenty of lower priced options.

Still the stress for the neighbourhoods that most residents want to be in and/or desired school districts can be classified as historically high.

[Author]

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