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SD Realtor
ParticipantI believe you will be better off renting in UTC for awhile before buying. I have seen significant depreciation there already, on the order of 20%. In some cases I have seen pricing depreciate 10% from 2004 levels. In summary I believe UTC condos could depreciate significantly over the next few years.
Try an experiment. Simply rent there for a year and see what the prices look like one year from today.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi robyns_song –
I was also curious as this spring it has been really tough negotiating with the builders. Last summer it seemed like they were much more negotiable. So what was the exact time that you got them from 720 down to 650? Sorry if you already posted the exact time, it has been a long day…
SD Realtor
ParticipantAgreed with gn and bugs bigtime. Builders don’t hold on to things. I have a relative at Kehov and he was telling me that they recently repurchased some land that they gave back, (and of course at the deposit)less then two years ago due to market projects… Again it all depends on where they were at in the development cycle. I do not know of the margins that it takes to get an approval for the developers to move forward on land purchases and development. I do know that for products made for tech, at least for one company I have worked at, the projects would not get approved unless there were 50% net margins on the product line in production. Now this was for ASIC development. Again, I do not know what the margins are for a developer to move forward but I would imagine they are at least 40%.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI think Scripps Ranch HS is packed. Also Poway HS is much closer to Stonebridge then Scripps HS. As I said I believe another high school is being built but it is at the far west end. Also I “heard” that there are going to allow students from Mira Mesa to go there as well. This is unreliable at best, not checked out with the SDUSD or anything like that.
Again don’t know why Stonebridge kids go to Poway but it makes alot of sense.
ParticipantDaisy you nailed it! Very good explanation. As you see due to the rotation of NODs it may be best to try to simply capture months ya know what I mean? Like how many NODs were reported in Jan of 07, Feb of 07 etc… Either way it is hard posting on going stats so my hat is off to you for doing so. I tried to do that for active/pendings as well as NODs/NOTs/REOs but it just go to burdensome.
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Yeah it is amazing how late in the process a people can cure the defaults. Some people go into default, then cure it, then go in again…
No there is no chance that the bank can make a property mysteriously disappear off the books. If a property makes it to auction, then it either sells or becomes REO no middle ground. (at least that I know of which is not much)
Anyways typically the REOs will be alot lower the NODs due to cures… Now how much of the default is “cured” is an interesting question. I just wonder as things deteriorate how much these lenders will let people stretch…
SD Realtor
ParticipantI drive by it all the time. We live at the edge of old Scripps. I could not tell you what the future holds for the school districts that serve Stonebridge. To be honest I did not think Stonebridge residents could send kids to the Poway schools. I know Scripps high is packed and I was under the impression of a new high school to be built down near I15. I know Thurgood Marshall junior high is being built down off of Pomerado. Anyways I would contact the SD Unified school district to find out about the future for Stonebridge.
Here is a link to the Calabria community in Stonebridge. Note this is a different builder.
http://www.brookfieldhomes.com/g4brook/Regions/san_diego/Communities/calabria/calabria_overview.htm
SD Realtor
ParticipantVery good points… The scariest thing of all is that the private parties that do make bids are REALLY well connected. They have done diligent research on the homes, title searches, investigated everything etc… Again, it is useful stuff to learn, but honestly I wouldn’t do it personally, I am just to intimidated and would wait until it went REO and buy it then.
One thing I would recommend would be to try to contact the distressed seller right after the notice of default is issued and try to negotiate a deal directly with them.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI think it is a situation that is kind of win/win for you… First, and I to say this, “your ADD realtor” said something that just seems kind of peculiar about the builders… Regardless though, if what she said is true then you really cannot lose. If the builders stop building then that means the market has tanked and you will get a good resale deal. Otherwise you can simply buy from the builders right? I think that there could be alot of overextended buyers in 4S so you could well if you have some patience.
Participantparanoid and bob hope this helps….The definitions are different points of recordings made during the foreclosure process, not necessarly a step by step process. During the entire process the owner has chances to cure the default
NOD – Notice of Default. Technically you are default once you miss a payment. Usually the lender will not notify the trustee until you miss 2 or 3. Once that occurs a notice of default is recorded. This signals the beginning of the foreclosure process.
NOT – Notice of Trustee Sale – This is not in the stats that Dasiy posted. This is an official recording that the owner has been notified that the home is going to be sold at auction in a trustee sale.
REO – This event is that the auction occurred and the home did not get sold at auction and title is now held by the lender, not the trustee. Note that someone (any private party) could have purchased the home at auction but did not.
Also note that again, at any time during this process the owner could have cured the default… I don’t know if the curing could happen on auction day, but I have heard of cases where the curing was done very close to auction. Foreclosure is a term that could be applied to the entire process I guess…Hope this helped guys…
Oh yeah as far as interpreting the numbers, like are they totals and if so how far back do they go, I am sure Daisy can clarify.
ParticipantAs you have probably read alot on this site, Irvine is lagging San Diego from a housing decline aspect both pricewise and psychologically. The 2006 behavior in San Diego will most likely be duplicated for Irvine sellers. I would advise renting up there to watch the market play out.
SD Realtor
ParticipantAN essentially yeah. Remember these homes are foreclosed right? So the opening bid is usually the outstanding loan balance… perhaps even more if there are multiple loans… So yeah at least when I look at the list from of REOs I see that the auction price is usually the loan balance and the property received no bids, thus the lender was stuck with it… I guess the lenders think they can still get more for the homes by putting them on the MLS and marketing them… Just my guess.
ParticipantMike92105 you make a very good point. As you said a vast majority of the homes at the auctions do not even get bid on at all. Prices are still to way to high even at auction.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI do believe the answer to the first two questions is yes. Not 100% sure but pretty darn sure.
I am sure there are on line resources for finding out more about the auctions but off hand I do not know of them. I know some of the basics about them but I don’t know more then I know.
Google San Diego County auctions or something like that, foreclosure auctions, and such and I am sure something will come up. I bet other posters here know alot about it.
ParticipantHope this is helpful…
There are a couple different classifications for distressed property sales.
1 – Short sale. This is when the owner of the home sells the home for a price that is lower then what is owed on the mortgages. In this scenario the owner has taken the proper steps with the lender or lenders so that these lenders will accept a short sale. Without going into to much detail the lender actually has final approval on this transaction. Most qualified Realtors can represent you when trying to buy a home that is a short sale.
2 – REO (Bank owned) homes have been owned by the lender. The home has made it through the foreclosure process and is now for sale. In general again, your Realtor can represent you. Know that since the bank owns this property they may impose conditions that are more stringent. For instance, since the bank owns the property but never occupied the property, they will not be able to give you very accurate disclosure information. They will most likely insist that you sign liability releases that absolve them of any liability concerning disclosures. You can still work with the lender of your choice however they will give the nod to people who are coming in with more of a downpayment then those who finance a large portion or all of the purchase in the event of multiple offers.
Auctions – Prior to a home becoming bank owned, it moves through the foreclosure process. The home will be placed in an auction and can be purchased by you or any other private party at the auction. Auctions are attended by lots of people most of them who are very experienced at attending them and who have purchased homes through that process.
SD Realtor
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