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April 9, 2007 at 11:29 PM in reply to: Getting married in September 2007. When should we buy? #49638
SD Realtor
ParticipantThanks for the comps sdr. You and I have butted heads on issues and we have differing opinions on things. I know we have provided some fun in the past, people probably like our disagreements more then our agreements.
However, when it comes to simply looking at the market situation odjectively, it is quite evident that we both see the facts and interpret them in the same light even though our business models are on opposite sides of the spectrum. We don’t claim to be any more correct then any other poster, we just pretty much print what we see. Hopefully people do not see us homering for the real estate machine even though we are part of that machine.
I did read the repost and I thought it to be insightful. I think Doc had left right about when I joined on.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJimmy –
I actually lived (rented) off of Calle Cristobal the past 1.5 years. In fact the place I rented is now on the market and NO WAY would I pay the prices they were asking. Not even 10-15% lower. asianautica has done an extensive amount of researching listings in mm and sorrento valley and has keen insights in the area there. As someone who used to live there and still works in Sorrento Valley I know it well also. Try to hold off if you can. I think some serious future foreclosure activity will happen. There is already CURRENT forelosure activity there right now.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJimmy –
In any secular trend like the one we are in, you will always see small rally points. Expect the secular trend down to continue for several years, and within that trend you will see rally points, more often then not in the spring. Don’t panic. If you can, try to buy later in the season, such as late summer or fall. If you are really smart push the purchase off for a few years. I do feel Mira Mesa will take it on the chin pretty hard in this downturn.
SD Realtor
ParticipantYour options are as you stated. In a short sale you will need to work with your lender. There are some imprtant steps that your lender will require you to take. You may or may not be liable for the difference, it all depends on what your lender will agree to. You will most likely carry a tax liability for the difference in what you owe verses what the lender forgives. You will need to deal with the IRS in this case. Yes this event will have a negative impact on your credit. Short sales are not “short” in terms of time. They generally take longer then regular transactions so if you are going to do it, get moving on it. Your lender may not agree on the 215k making it moot but if you have an appraisal that states 215k then it will help your argument with the lender.
You can default on the agreement and become a landlord. You stated that you will have a shortfall of 650 a month. Can you afford that?
Sounds like a choice of bad or worse. I think most people here see the inland empire as one of the areas that will get hit harder as the decline continues over the next few years.
SD Realtor
ParticipantCarlsbad is really nice as well. I like it. You will however look at about a 45 minute commute (one way) if you work a 9 to 5 job from KM. I also did that drive yesterday (Saturday) and there was traffic at 2 in the afternoon. Sadly this is not uncommon.
SD Realtor
Participantheheheheheh…
Don’t get me started on NAR…and don’t get NAR started on me. Guys like me are on NARs hit list.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI kind of agree with sdrealtor as well. I do not disagree that there is alot of potential for heavier drops. However guys read into the arguments you are relying on. I read alot of this or that HAS to happen. It seems like there is alot of hope in these statements. That this market HAS to crach because all of these foreclosures HAVE to happen. Or the economy HAS to collapse because real estate is so intertwined in it. The S&P HAS to crash in 07. What happened to all of the posts about the 25k inventory levels we were supposed to see?
This is what is most troubling to me when I read these posts is that they take facts and then extrapolate them to a disaster that HAS to happen. That is unavoidable. That lenders and big money and maybe even the government will not do whatever they can to avoid it.
Hey I am a bitter renter, don’t get me wrong. Nor do I depend on real estate for my livelihood as engineering is my primary means for survival. I WANT prices to go down as I am damn tired of renting and like other posters have a wife who has run out of time and patience. I THINK that we will see the down cycle continue over a long measured cycle that will take a few years. I also believe and have said over and over again, that this decline will produce more marked variations in neighborhoods. Just like the runup was pumped by cheap money, there are neighborhoods where a high number of homeowners are not distressed and will simply ride it out. Then there are other neighborhoods that will be hobbled drastically by high foreclosures. Yes the buying pool will be reduced but lemme tell ya guys, 100% financing is still out there and people ARE getting loans.
So like all the posts, mine is just speculation, if I am wrong and it does dump, then I will be happy because I will be able to buy sooner. I have been busting ass, working 2 jobs and building a cash pile just for that reason. So yeah, the indicators are all looking good for a crash, and the sub prime and alt-A lenders are feeling heat. Yet the stock markets, which always lead the way regarding the economy, which I trust more then anyone on this site, and the inventory levels for San Diego, as well as the availability and pricing of homes in neighborhoods where I want to live, (as opposed to those in Escondido or Lemon Grove) tell me a different story.
I guess we will see.
ParticipantI assume you mean TSMC. They fabricate the ASICs that my staff designs, as well as a majority of custom ASICs.
America cannot compete simply because of the salaries. That is the way it is and the way it will be.
Actually there are other more worrisome elements to this sort of globalization even though it is raw capitalism operating at it’s best. That is the security element. If you think about it, a staggering amount of our custom ASICs (chips), parts for military equipment and other basic infrastructure are manufactured overseas.
There is a large ASIC manufacturing area being built in Mexicali. I am quite pleased with that if for anything just to have it closer to American soil. I think that sooner or later we will see that we need to bring more of this sort of manufacturing back physical locations that will be closer to home. If it means subsidizing our workers then so be it.
Everyone whines about loss of jobs. It sucks. I hate it and could lose mine at any time. However the bottom line is that people do what I do on the other side of the planet for a hell of alot cheaper.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Dejams –
I was definitely not implying to buy now. I agree with you, hold off as long as you can to let the decline run the course. In general I would agree with the posters about Tierra Santa and Scripps. Scripps is a bit more high end then Tierra Santa and the homes are larger and have bigger lots. Don’t get me wrong as I am not knocking Tierra Santa at all. My wife and I, kids, mom in law, dogs, cats and turtles all rent a 4/3 home in Scripps with a very big backyard but it is 2500 a month. Not cheap. You could probably rent for less in Tierra Santa but maybe not get as large of a home with as large as a yard. Again, not to be snobbish but if you are going to rent in Clairemont or Serra Mesa I would be very selective. Those neighborhoods can vary and have nice and not so nice pockets. You may end up next to many nice families and you may end up next door to a bunch of tenants like yourself but may not be a nice family with kids. If you can, University City is higher end then Clairemont and not far from where you work. Also Bayview is bit higher end but the rents go up there as well. You could even go as far north as Carmel Valley but rents are a bit steeper there as well.
Anyways as you get closer to coming out let us know. Definitely plenty of places for you to choose from.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI know Westwood pretty well. It is fairly desireable… for RB that is… still I would recommend to any clients to buy there right now. I think he is going to be wishing he held out for another year or two at least. Still though, if he plans to stay for several years and he is happy with the schools and such he will be okay.
ParticipantDejams –
As far as your potential purchase in the future goes, it all depends on your price range. Your workplace is pretty central so you have a great selection of different areas. I would imagine the school districts will be important to you so that will prune out some of the recommendations but pricing is paramount.
SD Realtor
Participantsdr agreed…
I didn’t know Hahn and Lynch were IP1 investors. That explains the volume of commercials. Radio time is not cheap at all and when I counted the number of IP1 commercials in a single Padres broadcast I could not figure out how in the world they could pay for it. Now it is easy to see.
I think you may be correct in the sense that if I did it full time I don’t believe I would match my engineering income. I may come close depending on the market conditions but it is doubtful. Also if I had higher operating expenses then no way.
I think the thing that is most interesting is we see sooooo many posters complaining about the costs associated with transactions. Like everything else it is much easier to complain then to do something about it. I complained alot as well but did something about it. I had a friend who I was going to hang my license with after I go it and then I could simply by/sell on my own in order to save a side of the commission. The idea to start the second business got spun up because I had a bunch of engineering friends who wanted homes and didn’t want to pay as much either. Also the rental numbers in San Diego didn’t make sense anymore. So it goes from there.
The HUS story is one you probably already know. HUS has some great people. The franchise owners were all good. The regional guys were pretty crooked (in hindsight) and you may know them or of them. They completely over saturated San Diego. When I bought my franchise there were 22 of them and 3 months later there were over 30 of them! The guys I sold my franchise to already have closed it up. Many other of the HUS franchises have as well.
I often wonder why more people have not done what I have done. I am not sure if it is the entrepenurial slant or just the time involved. I can honestly say it is much more time consuming then anyone here realizes. There is so much free work that you need to do and more often then not potential buyers or sellers bail on you. MINIMUM 80% of the time to say the least, at least in my case. My wife says I am way to accomodating to leads and she is definitely right. So everyone thinks that they are getting ripped off by commissions but they don’t think of the other 8 people that the agent took out to see homes, or ran comps for, or dedicated time to but who walked.
A few weeks ago I posted about a listing appt I had in Coronado and how the guy wanted to list but was not willing to price competitively. The guy completely ran me through the ringer and in the end he ended up simply using me as leverage to get the commission lowered by his agent that he has always used. Those are the breaks though right?
Nobody forces them to use agents. Call a real estate attorney, FSBO it yourself, or go get a license and hang it with a broker.
SD Realtor
ParticipantIt has been pretty hard not to post on this thread… Looks like I lost the battle to temptation. That hard part is how to post without sounding like a shill of which I will surely be accused of….
In short I think that with the price of homes today, one can provide a high level of service to consumers and charge a lower commission. I don’t think it matters if it is on the listing side, or the buyers side. I believe that one of the largest misconceptions of consumers has to do with the amount of money a realtor makes. The reality is that the commissions are split up many ways and only a smaller percentage of top producing realtors make the big money. The bigger the corporate entity the less money realtors get.
At any rate I run the business as a second business yet I do not believe I provide any lesser service to my clients. I feel that I give them as good if not better representation then they would get from anyone else in the industry. I don’t claim to be a 20 year veteran or anything like that. I am simply an electrical engineer who had some rental properties and got tired of paying my Coldwell Banker agent (who is also my sister in law) full commission whenever I bought or sold a rental property.
The stories of both I Pay One and Help U Sell are interesting case studies. I owned a Help U Sell and quickly sold it because I saw MAJOR problems with the corporate structure. To say that it was poor is an understatement. I Pay One was never constructed for real estate. The main driver behind that entity was to get the loan business. The amount of money that they spent on advertising was staggering. They poured a ton of coin into the 1090 Padre broadcasts, you would hear several commercials every game. To purchase the naming rights of the Sports Arena was one of the stupidest things they could have done.
I often wonder how things would be if I did this 100% of the time. I am sure I would boost my revenue but probably not to the same level of what I make through engineering and having the real estate brokerage as a second business. I do agree that at some point, quality of service falls off due to having to many clients. Yet I have yet to field complaints about my level of service. I believe if I can provide this service, then anyone else that is motivated and intelligent can as well. I am somewhat familiar with the Assist to Sell . It is very similar to Help U Sell but Assist to Sell has not saturated the county like Help U Sell did. I guess we will see what happens with them.
SD Realtor
April 5, 2007 at 1:38 PM in reply to: Some facts/observations about Servicing, Loss Mitigation, Foreclosure, etc. #49325ParticipantThis was a good post Davelj. One thing that jumps right out at me is that the 30% informal payment plan enacted verses the 3% official payment plan enacted indicates that the entity servicing the loan is still inclined to roll the dice and hope that the event precipitating the NOD status was truly a one time event. In my opinion I think that while one time events do cause homeowners to go to default, the majority of offenders are chronic. Please understand I have no hard data on this, only my opinions on the American consumer in general.
SD Realtor
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