[SD Realtor]

cyphire – sdr and I have often disagreed on alot of points but sometimes our worlds collide in strange ways. I just closed a home for some buyers who I told over and over again that I would wait to buy. However, as much as they understood my rationale, the display of data I showed them, and the simple logic of long depreciation cycles, the bottom line is they wanted to buy. We worked together several months and they bought a nice place off of Olivenhain. They are a young couple and by no means are a 7 figure couple. They are going to be there long term, they have no intention of selling, and it is where they simply wanted to live.

I cannot say they will be happy in a year from now but I think they will love their home, enjoy the life, and in the long run they will indeed be happy.

One thing that ALL of us here on Piggington have in common is that we all see the same data. We all hear the media portrayals, we all see the BS about how housing is not failing… However one thing that sdr, myself, and I would imagine some other realtors see is that there are people out there who want to buy and that these are not stupid people. I am not saying it is right or wrong, I am not saying these buyers will prop up the market. Yet, they all have reasons that, to the chagrin of most people here, they will stick with. People may call sdr or myself out for hoodwinking these people, but it is not the case. I know it is not for me and I sincerely doubt it is for him either. Yes there are PLENTY of sheister agents out there.

Last month I had a similar situation with another couple who bought a place in Sabre Springs. These are the normal buyers that you spoke of. These are bright people, engineer and pilot… not stupid, fully realizing that they could be buying in the midst of a long downtrend. However they bought because that is the lifestyle they wanted. I am not defending them, but they are out there.

I just don’t know why people deny their existence or cannot fathom why any of them behave like this.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

FSD – Correct, as you can see in my post, I used the word average which equates to the mean and NOT the median.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

FSD – Correct, as you can see in my post, I used the word average which equates to the mean and NOT the median.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Thanks JG –

So here is a point… The bears will hate me for this…

If I am going to move to La Jolla, I am not going to buy a condo. I am going to buy a detached home. What would be interesting to me is to see the depreciation in detached homes in La Jolla. UNDOUBTEDLY they will have depreciated. I will never argue that. JG your data is consistent so that is very true and telling of the situation. All things scale. It would be informative to see the data for detached homes only. Again, I am posting this blind without looking at the data. The only single data point I took was looking at detached home sales for April of 2007 and there were 31 closings with an average pricing of a bit over 2 million.

Anyways, I am still in the camp that home type and location will vary in terms of the amount they will depreciate. No hard data on that. Just my opinion.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Thanks JG –

So here is a point… The bears will hate me for this…

If I am going to move to La Jolla, I am not going to buy a condo. I am going to buy a detached home. What would be interesting to me is to see the depreciation in detached homes in La Jolla. UNDOUBTEDLY they will have depreciated. I will never argue that. JG your data is consistent so that is very true and telling of the situation. All things scale. It would be informative to see the data for detached homes only. Again, I am posting this blind without looking at the data. The only single data point I took was looking at detached home sales for April of 2007 and there were 31 closings with an average pricing of a bit over 2 million.

Anyways, I am still in the camp that home type and location will vary in terms of the amount they will depreciate. No hard data on that. Just my opinion.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Nice!!

I don’t have much on yuma but we have very good friends in Havasu and it has just been a graveyard out there.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Nice!!

I don’t have much on yuma but we have very good friends in Havasu and it has just been a graveyard out there.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Thanks jg that is what I thought. Also again, my assumption is that you gathered attached and detached homes.

Latesummer brought out what I believe is to be the most important point, the lower sales volume. This is by far a more telling indicator to me then the median.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Thanks jg that is what I thought. Also again, my assumption is that you gathered attached and detached homes.

Latesummer brought out what I believe is to be the most important point, the lower sales volume. This is by far a more telling indicator to me then the median.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

FSD you make a very good point which, I think, is kind of providing some validation to some of the counterpoints posted in this thread. That is, monthly median data is perhaps a bit unreliable to point out long term trends. There is not doubt whatsoever in my mind of prolonged depreciation over the next few years. I will say it is only my opinion that higher desired neighborhoods will not be hit as hard as less desired neighborhoods but that is only an opinion and I could very well be wrong. However I am just not sure I agree with the pace of depreciation that people are preaching, almost longing to find data to back up. By the same token I can find ALOT of pricing that is at 2004 and even 2003 levels for many areas around the county.

My post was simply to correlate the graph to the actual MLS data for detached homes for the month of April of 07.

[SD Realtor]

FSD you make a very good point which, I think, is kind of providing some validation to some of the counterpoints posted in this thread. That is, monthly median data is perhaps a bit unreliable to point out long term trends. There is not doubt whatsoever in my mind of prolonged depreciation over the next few years. I will say it is only my opinion that higher desired neighborhoods will not be hit as hard as less desired neighborhoods but that is only an opinion and I could very well be wrong. However I am just not sure I agree with the pace of depreciation that people are preaching, almost longing to find data to back up. By the same token I can find ALOT of pricing that is at 2004 and even 2003 levels for many areas around the county.

My post was simply to correlate the graph to the actual MLS data for detached homes for the month of April of 07.

[SD Realtor]

jg – Just curious but on your chart, I assume each dot is a data point that represents the median price for a particular month correct? I am not disparaging anyone here but I am trying to understand the chart better. For instance I took the simple average of the sales for 92037 resale homes from 4/1/07 – 5/1/07 and my average came out to 2.217 million for the 31 detached homes that were sold. Now I didn’t use condos, just detached homes.

Anyways like I said, I am just trying to better understand the data you presented.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

jg – Just curious but on your chart, I assume each dot is a data point that represents the median price for a particular month correct? I am not disparaging anyone here but I am trying to understand the chart better. For instance I took the simple average of the sales for 92037 resale homes from 4/1/07 – 5/1/07 and my average came out to 2.217 million for the 31 detached homes that were sold. Now I didn’t use condos, just detached homes.

Anyways like I said, I am just trying to better understand the data you presented.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I would agree with you 100% on that Radelow.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I would agree with you 100% on that Radelow.

SD Realtor

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