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SD Realtor
ParticipantYou got it… and yep it is only my opinion… nothing more then that.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJason we have had several other threads and posts on this topic. Suffice it to say there are buyers out there. In 2006 there were more. In 2005 there were more then in 06….What you have filtered out of the market are speculators and flippers. We are also starting to see the filtering out of people who need 100% financing although NOT NEARLY as much as people on this site would hope for. There is plenty of 100% financing still out there.
In general I believe alot more buyers are fiscally sound, looking for a good deal, not in a rush, have cash available for a nice size down payment, and are going to be settling in for awhile. Basically I would characterize the buyers in todays market as a the type of buyers you want in a market.
Before everyone jumps on me I am not saying there are alot of buyers out there. I am also not saying prices will not continue to decline. I am saying that I think we have weeded alot of the muck out.
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It seems to me that we get posts at least once a week and maybe more of people who are thinking to buy. Now I would suppose just like crime, the number of things we see posted is alot smaller then the actual number out there. So maybe for every person that posts this thinking of buying post, maybe there are 10 lurkers out there who are thinking of buying but don’t post it because they don’t want to get flamed by the posters here.
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So the long winded answer to your question Jason is that there are buyers out there and no they are not idiots. In fact they are savy and may be wanting to buy or needing to buy for many different reasons. At least they know what is going on and they are going to keep their eyes open.
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dpsvend you are not alone and there are plenty like you. I am one of them… I have a healthy downpayment ready to go and am being very selective and am in no rush. I am buying for the long run as well… I undoubtedly will not be able to wait until the bottom because I project it to be a few years out, maybe 2010 or 11.. but I know what I don’t know so I will be okay. Sounds like you will be as well. If you can hold off, try to do so… I think CV will come down but it is holding up pretty well so you may need to wait awhile…
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SD Realtor
ParticipantJason we have had several other threads and posts on this topic. Suffice it to say there are buyers out there. In 2006 there were more. In 2005 there were more then in 06….What you have filtered out of the market are speculators and flippers. We are also starting to see the filtering out of people who need 100% financing although NOT NEARLY as much as people on this site would hope for. There is plenty of 100% financing still out there.
In general I believe alot more buyers are fiscally sound, looking for a good deal, not in a rush, have cash available for a nice size down payment, and are going to be settling in for awhile. Basically I would characterize the buyers in todays market as a the type of buyers you want in a market.
Before everyone jumps on me I am not saying there are alot of buyers out there. I am also not saying prices will not continue to decline. I am saying that I think we have weeded alot of the muck out.
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It seems to me that we get posts at least once a week and maybe more of people who are thinking to buy. Now I would suppose just like crime, the number of things we see posted is alot smaller then the actual number out there. So maybe for every person that posts this thinking of buying post, maybe there are 10 lurkers out there who are thinking of buying but don’t post it because they don’t want to get flamed by the posters here.
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So the long winded answer to your question Jason is that there are buyers out there and no they are not idiots. In fact they are savy and may be wanting to buy or needing to buy for many different reasons. At least they know what is going on and they are going to keep their eyes open.
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dpsvend you are not alone and there are plenty like you. I am one of them… I have a healthy downpayment ready to go and am being very selective and am in no rush. I am buying for the long run as well… I undoubtedly will not be able to wait until the bottom because I project it to be a few years out, maybe 2010 or 11.. but I know what I don’t know so I will be okay. Sounds like you will be as well. If you can hold off, try to do so… I think CV will come down but it is holding up pretty well so you may need to wait awhile…
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SD Realtor
ParticipantThis is way to long to read.
Also in the “good analysis” there is a statement in there that says, foreclosures cause lenders to raise rates.
So I will state again… and again… long term interest rates for mortgages are not based on the prime rate set by the fed… they are not based on the amount of foreclosures… they are not based on whether the moon is made of swiss or cheddar cheese…they are based on the bond yield…
The lending standards may tighten up… and other factors that the underwriters use may indeed make it harder for people to get loans…
However again, the supposed “good analysis” had a fault in it at which point I stopped reading.
SD Realtor
ParticipantThis is way to long to read.
Also in the “good analysis” there is a statement in there that says, foreclosures cause lenders to raise rates.
So I will state again… and again… long term interest rates for mortgages are not based on the prime rate set by the fed… they are not based on the amount of foreclosures… they are not based on whether the moon is made of swiss or cheddar cheese…they are based on the bond yield…
The lending standards may tighten up… and other factors that the underwriters use may indeed make it harder for people to get loans…
However again, the supposed “good analysis” had a fault in it at which point I stopped reading.
SD Realtor
ParticipantWow… the real question is how could i have gotten into the hedge fund offered by Paulson and Co… Up 90% in a year is not to bad…
SD Realtor
ParticipantWow… the real question is how could i have gotten into the hedge fund offered by Paulson and Co… Up 90% in a year is not to bad…
SD Realtor
June 19, 2007 at 1:16 PM in reply to: 4S Evergreen 3000+ sq/ft beginning at $800K = sold out. #60481ParticipantSDC I agree with you 100%, they are coming down. Most of the regulars here know that the builders have no emotional attachments and a higher margin to work with and they will always be able to undercut the resellers. Also that the builders squeeze the number of homes per phase release AND they slow down the phase releases to limit the supply thus creating an appearance of more demand. You called it correctly and I anticipate the trend to continue.
So yeah maybe buyers will not get the house directly from the builder and maybe it will not be brand new, but they may be able to get the “2 year old pre-owned model” at a nice discount if they hang out for a spell…
SD Realtor
June 19, 2007 at 1:16 PM in reply to: 4S Evergreen 3000+ sq/ft beginning at $800K = sold out. #60514ParticipantSDC I agree with you 100%, they are coming down. Most of the regulars here know that the builders have no emotional attachments and a higher margin to work with and they will always be able to undercut the resellers. Also that the builders squeeze the number of homes per phase release AND they slow down the phase releases to limit the supply thus creating an appearance of more demand. You called it correctly and I anticipate the trend to continue.
So yeah maybe buyers will not get the house directly from the builder and maybe it will not be brand new, but they may be able to get the “2 year old pre-owned model” at a nice discount if they hang out for a spell…
SD Realtor
June 19, 2007 at 11:29 AM in reply to: 4S Evergreen 3000+ sq/ft beginning at $800K = sold out. #60447ParticipantSchizo –
I know it is a really tough spot to be watching and waiting and not see the price reductions that many people think will happen. Deep down I do believe they will happen. Maybe sooner, or maybe later, but I think they will. They also may not take the form of a new home from the developer but of a foreclosure or a distress sale. So far the resellers of homes in 4S are not coming down in price. Eventually though I believe they will. It just may take longer then you want to wait.
What I cannot do is make the ironclad gaurantee that it will happen in a month from now, or a year from now, or 3 years from now.
Like you I am going to have to buy sooner then I want to but I am holding out as long as I can…
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Schizo if you are going to pony up and sign the contract make sure you are clear on the financing aspect, whether you will float the loan or not, etc… I am sure you saw the threads last week on this subject. The good news is the 10 year has come off its high of last week. The question is, will it start to reverse the trend it has been in since March.
SD Realtor
June 19, 2007 at 11:29 AM in reply to: 4S Evergreen 3000+ sq/ft beginning at $800K = sold out. #60480ParticipantSchizo –
I know it is a really tough spot to be watching and waiting and not see the price reductions that many people think will happen. Deep down I do believe they will happen. Maybe sooner, or maybe later, but I think they will. They also may not take the form of a new home from the developer but of a foreclosure or a distress sale. So far the resellers of homes in 4S are not coming down in price. Eventually though I believe they will. It just may take longer then you want to wait.
What I cannot do is make the ironclad gaurantee that it will happen in a month from now, or a year from now, or 3 years from now.
Like you I am going to have to buy sooner then I want to but I am holding out as long as I can…
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Schizo if you are going to pony up and sign the contract make sure you are clear on the financing aspect, whether you will float the loan or not, etc… I am sure you saw the threads last week on this subject. The good news is the 10 year has come off its high of last week. The question is, will it start to reverse the trend it has been in since March.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHang loose on that San Remo home in CV. They owe about 775k on it total right now. Sit tight another year or two and you will most likely find that extra 10-15% you are looking for. My only concern is that this home backs up to DM Heights road so you will get noise in your backyard. Also even though the home is upgraded nicely, it is still overpriced in my opinion.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHang loose on that San Remo home in CV. They owe about 775k on it total right now. Sit tight another year or two and you will most likely find that extra 10-15% you are looking for. My only concern is that this home backs up to DM Heights road so you will get noise in your backyard. Also even though the home is upgraded nicely, it is still overpriced in my opinion.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI agree with your last post 100% core… Some say the stock market is totally manipulated by crooks… maybe it is maybe it is not, I still invest knowing the risks….the same is true for pretty much any investment that will outperform inflation. It sucks all that much worse when you find that you were part of a deep rooted criminal scheme. I know, I have been there. It is lame.
Alot of people who post here have NO sympathy at all for the people who lost money. In fact there are many people who consider themselves victims because they have sat on the sidelines patiently saving cash because they were priced out of the market. That the housing boom was in part caused by irrational speculation. Thus they can never buy a house because of the greed of others.
Who is to say who is right? You see what I am saying? This is sometimes why you see the harsh responses about the people who (yes may have been victimized) but who also (in the eyes of many people) were part of the problem.
One last thing, I don’t think capitalism is built on greed. The rush of making easy money, whether it is because you win a football bet, or you flip a home, should not be intertwined with making a profit selling goods or providing services in a society.
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