[SD Realtor]

So it is the only active home for sale in 1189 H4. There is not much to compare it to right in that little area. It has a large lot and it backs up to a hillside. The active to pending ratio in 92128 is not to bad right now… npt quite 1 in 4… 150 active and 46 pendings. However there is a ton of stuff in this size range but not with as large a lot. Yet the home is a bit older then the usual 92128 home. So back and forth I go… I think it will be tough for them to get more then the low 600’s if they even get that. They actually just repriced it today.

Also all bets may be off due to the financing climate. We have to see if pending significantly slow down over the next few weeks.

[SD Realtor]

So it is the only active home for sale in 1189 H4. There is not much to compare it to right in that little area. It has a large lot and it backs up to a hillside. The active to pending ratio in 92128 is not to bad right now… npt quite 1 in 4… 150 active and 46 pendings. However there is a ton of stuff in this size range but not with as large a lot. Yet the home is a bit older then the usual 92128 home. So back and forth I go… I think it will be tough for them to get more then the low 600’s if they even get that. They actually just repriced it today.

Also all bets may be off due to the financing climate. We have to see if pending significantly slow down over the next few weeks.

[SD Realtor]

I hope you are right JWM. Believe me, I don’t like the guy at all. I have posted many a time that I can tolerate him for all of a few moments and then I have to switch as my head begins to implode…. ol George and his buddy M.A… with the mortgage minute. I just bet KOGO has him in a long contract, (or visa verse) and I don’t see them shutting him down even as the mainstream media gets more readership by promoting the facts of what is going on to the front pages.

The media tilt is an interesting one…

Here is something that would be interesting… we see many media outlets promoting real estate… flip this house…an entire tv station (albeit cable, HG) as well as a plethora of shows on the radio all promoting real estate…

I wonder if a real estate radio show with a bearish outlook would get ratings?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I hope you are right JWM. Believe me, I don’t like the guy at all. I have posted many a time that I can tolerate him for all of a few moments and then I have to switch as my head begins to implode…. ol George and his buddy M.A… with the mortgage minute. I just bet KOGO has him in a long contract, (or visa verse) and I don’t see them shutting him down even as the mainstream media gets more readership by promoting the facts of what is going on to the front pages.

The media tilt is an interesting one…

Here is something that would be interesting… we see many media outlets promoting real estate… flip this house…an entire tv station (albeit cable, HG) as well as a plethora of shows on the radio all promoting real estate…

I wonder if a real estate radio show with a bearish outlook would get ratings?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I hope you are right JWM. Believe me, I don’t like the guy at all. I have posted many a time that I can tolerate him for all of a few moments and then I have to switch as my head begins to implode…. ol George and his buddy M.A… with the mortgage minute. I just bet KOGO has him in a long contract, (or visa verse) and I don’t see them shutting him down even as the mainstream media gets more readership by promoting the facts of what is going on to the front pages.

The media tilt is an interesting one…

Here is something that would be interesting… we see many media outlets promoting real estate… flip this house…an entire tv station (albeit cable, HG) as well as a plethora of shows on the radio all promoting real estate…

I wonder if a real estate radio show with a bearish outlook would get ratings?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

If you have it priced aggressively and it shows well you should be okay.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

If you have it priced aggressively and it shows well you should be okay.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

If you have it priced aggressively and it shows well you should be okay.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sd_resident, it sounds like your analysis is conservative which is good. If you want it may be wise to built in more margin to your estimates given the fact that the lending climate is substantially more difficult now then it was 2 months ago. Also the fact that these closings occurred in the past two months indicates the homes were on the market in the spring or at least late spring. Are there any actives on the market currently?

Do you mind if I ask what part of town and if you are in a condo or a home? (Don’t answer this part if you don’t want to)

Chris made a valid point about chasing the market down. So you have to ask yourself what side of the downturn we are in, the beginning, middle or end. Also that question will vary (at least in my opinion) on where you live and what type of home you have. Also how fast has the neighborhood appreciated? Do you think many people around you are susceptible to distress (risky loan vehicles) etc? Another thing to remember is that there is time you need to account for to recover after the market bottoms out. So that time is also opportunity cost with respect to your investment. One thing you may want to do is run out some scenarios. Say over the next 3 years plot out a 7-10% depreciation and then a 4% appreciation to see how long it takes to get back to where you are. Play with the numbers (maybe 2 years instead of 3 and maybe 4 instead of 3. Also vary the depreciation rates) and see where you end up. Also compare that to say a very conservative investment of say 5% and then vary that investment… 3% to be ultra conservative and go up if you want to be risky…

It is one thing to ask opinions but when you run the numbers and have it in front of you sometimes that makes the decision easier.

We all have varying points of view here as you know. Is it conceivable for homes to go back to 2002 or 2001 prices? It could happen. Again it depends on where you are and what you have. I have seen 2003 prices in some areas already. In others I have seen much stronger resistance to the depreciation cycle.

[SD Realtor]

sd_resident, it sounds like your analysis is conservative which is good. If you want it may be wise to built in more margin to your estimates given the fact that the lending climate is substantially more difficult now then it was 2 months ago. Also the fact that these closings occurred in the past two months indicates the homes were on the market in the spring or at least late spring. Are there any actives on the market currently?

Do you mind if I ask what part of town and if you are in a condo or a home? (Don’t answer this part if you don’t want to)

Chris made a valid point about chasing the market down. So you have to ask yourself what side of the downturn we are in, the beginning, middle or end. Also that question will vary (at least in my opinion) on where you live and what type of home you have. Also how fast has the neighborhood appreciated? Do you think many people around you are susceptible to distress (risky loan vehicles) etc? Another thing to remember is that there is time you need to account for to recover after the market bottoms out. So that time is also opportunity cost with respect to your investment. One thing you may want to do is run out some scenarios. Say over the next 3 years plot out a 7-10% depreciation and then a 4% appreciation to see how long it takes to get back to where you are. Play with the numbers (maybe 2 years instead of 3 and maybe 4 instead of 3. Also vary the depreciation rates) and see where you end up. Also compare that to say a very conservative investment of say 5% and then vary that investment… 3% to be ultra conservative and go up if you want to be risky…

It is one thing to ask opinions but when you run the numbers and have it in front of you sometimes that makes the decision easier.

We all have varying points of view here as you know. Is it conceivable for homes to go back to 2002 or 2001 prices? It could happen. Again it depends on where you are and what you have. I have seen 2003 prices in some areas already. In others I have seen much stronger resistance to the depreciation cycle.

[SD Realtor]

sd_resident, it sounds like your analysis is conservative which is good. If you want it may be wise to built in more margin to your estimates given the fact that the lending climate is substantially more difficult now then it was 2 months ago. Also the fact that these closings occurred in the past two months indicates the homes were on the market in the spring or at least late spring. Are there any actives on the market currently?

Do you mind if I ask what part of town and if you are in a condo or a home? (Don’t answer this part if you don’t want to)

Chris made a valid point about chasing the market down. So you have to ask yourself what side of the downturn we are in, the beginning, middle or end. Also that question will vary (at least in my opinion) on where you live and what type of home you have. Also how fast has the neighborhood appreciated? Do you think many people around you are susceptible to distress (risky loan vehicles) etc? Another thing to remember is that there is time you need to account for to recover after the market bottoms out. So that time is also opportunity cost with respect to your investment. One thing you may want to do is run out some scenarios. Say over the next 3 years plot out a 7-10% depreciation and then a 4% appreciation to see how long it takes to get back to where you are. Play with the numbers (maybe 2 years instead of 3 and maybe 4 instead of 3. Also vary the depreciation rates) and see where you end up. Also compare that to say a very conservative investment of say 5% and then vary that investment… 3% to be ultra conservative and go up if you want to be risky…

It is one thing to ask opinions but when you run the numbers and have it in front of you sometimes that makes the decision easier.

We all have varying points of view here as you know. Is it conceivable for homes to go back to 2002 or 2001 prices? It could happen. Again it depends on where you are and what you have. I have seen 2003 prices in some areas already. In others I have seen much stronger resistance to the depreciation cycle.

[SD Realtor]

AN I KNEW you would check in on this home… heheheh… Looks familiar to you eh?

I will get back later tonite to look it up.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

AN I KNEW you would check in on this home… heheheh… Looks familiar to you eh?

I will get back later tonite to look it up.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

AN I KNEW you would check in on this home… heheheh… Looks familiar to you eh?

I will get back later tonite to look it up.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Guys… the local news loves guys like GC… How bout Dan Holbrock? Anyone here dealt with him? He is quite a character…

The guy is a fixture and I don’t see him going anywhere unless there would be heavy public backlash against him.

For those that really want to see him gone, don’t mail him, email the program directors of the media outlets he serves.

SD Realtor

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