[SD Realtor]

Alex I think that one should run different scenarios on paper to see what COULD happen and how long things COULD take.

Speculating that getting back to 05 prices will happen “fast” needs to have a cause correct? If the “rise” to get to the 05 prices was not based on true value but rather a highly speculative environment that was fueled by lending standards that will not be present again, along with an entirely different credit market, then I need to see what will fuel the “fast” rise back to 05 price levels after this cycle runs it’s course. I feel as if after we are done with this cycle, (which will not be for awhile based on the two previous cycle durations, AND the amount of reset activity still in the pipeline) that the market will be in an much healthier state. That state would then dictate a slow measured appreciation rate, not the runaway train we saw over the past few years….

I think taking a measured approach like testing different depths of the depreciation cycle, and then a rise back up again based on a different rates of appreciation, say 3 or 4% per year will yield results that will support an argument (in either direction) a bit better.

Here is an example…..A home sells for 600k in 2005. Looses 40% of its value to 360k. Then at 4% per year it takes 10 years to get back to 532k. Now we did not factor in transaction costs either. See what I am saying?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Alex I think that one should run different scenarios on paper to see what COULD happen and how long things COULD take.

Speculating that getting back to 05 prices will happen “fast” needs to have a cause correct? If the “rise” to get to the 05 prices was not based on true value but rather a highly speculative environment that was fueled by lending standards that will not be present again, along with an entirely different credit market, then I need to see what will fuel the “fast” rise back to 05 price levels after this cycle runs it’s course. I feel as if after we are done with this cycle, (which will not be for awhile based on the two previous cycle durations, AND the amount of reset activity still in the pipeline) that the market will be in an much healthier state. That state would then dictate a slow measured appreciation rate, not the runaway train we saw over the past few years….

I think taking a measured approach like testing different depths of the depreciation cycle, and then a rise back up again based on a different rates of appreciation, say 3 or 4% per year will yield results that will support an argument (in either direction) a bit better.

Here is an example…..A home sells for 600k in 2005. Looses 40% of its value to 360k. Then at 4% per year it takes 10 years to get back to 532k. Now we did not factor in transaction costs either. See what I am saying?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Nancy –

I have said over and over again is that the cure is to let the market go through what it needs to go through without and federal or state intervention at any level. Furthermore I have also said many a time that my worst fear is that the issue will be politicized and that continues to be my worst fear.

“CURE: Massive layoff of enablers and accountants who mark-to-myth instead of mark-to-ten-cents-on-the-dollar valuations. Afterward, intense regulation and oversight of those who remain on the job.”

So who lays off who? Should the lenders lay off the loan processors and underwriting groups? Or should all the appraisers be fired and then rehired? Perhaps every mortgage broker should be fired by who? Their boss? How about these accountants that you mentioned? Specifically which accountant? Should everyone and Moodys and S&P be fired? Should ever realtor working at Prudential, Coldwell Banker etc be laid off?

Is the intense regulation and oversight you mentioned going to be a federal program? State program? SEC? Homeland security?

Nancy I don’t have a quick logical cure because the the problem is so massive. I don’t like to just make blanket statements, if you read any of my posts they are all made in a cautious manner because that is how I work. I don’t know the quick fix to any of this but I know what is not the quick fix which is any intervention by politicians as well as taxpayer or non taxpayer funding to help out distressed homeowners.

Short of that I think the market correcting on it’s own will take care many (but not all of the issues) that contributed to the problem.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Nancy –

I have said over and over again is that the cure is to let the market go through what it needs to go through without and federal or state intervention at any level. Furthermore I have also said many a time that my worst fear is that the issue will be politicized and that continues to be my worst fear.

“CURE: Massive layoff of enablers and accountants who mark-to-myth instead of mark-to-ten-cents-on-the-dollar valuations. Afterward, intense regulation and oversight of those who remain on the job.”

So who lays off who? Should the lenders lay off the loan processors and underwriting groups? Or should all the appraisers be fired and then rehired? Perhaps every mortgage broker should be fired by who? Their boss? How about these accountants that you mentioned? Specifically which accountant? Should everyone and Moodys and S&P be fired? Should ever realtor working at Prudential, Coldwell Banker etc be laid off?

Is the intense regulation and oversight you mentioned going to be a federal program? State program? SEC? Homeland security?

Nancy I don’t have a quick logical cure because the the problem is so massive. I don’t like to just make blanket statements, if you read any of my posts they are all made in a cautious manner because that is how I work. I don’t know the quick fix to any of this but I know what is not the quick fix which is any intervention by politicians as well as taxpayer or non taxpayer funding to help out distressed homeowners.

Short of that I think the market correcting on it’s own will take care many (but not all of the issues) that contributed to the problem.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Nancy –

I have said over and over again is that the cure is to let the market go through what it needs to go through without and federal or state intervention at any level. Furthermore I have also said many a time that my worst fear is that the issue will be politicized and that continues to be my worst fear.

“CURE: Massive layoff of enablers and accountants who mark-to-myth instead of mark-to-ten-cents-on-the-dollar valuations. Afterward, intense regulation and oversight of those who remain on the job.”

So who lays off who? Should the lenders lay off the loan processors and underwriting groups? Or should all the appraisers be fired and then rehired? Perhaps every mortgage broker should be fired by who? Their boss? How about these accountants that you mentioned? Specifically which accountant? Should everyone and Moodys and S&P be fired? Should ever realtor working at Prudential, Coldwell Banker etc be laid off?

Is the intense regulation and oversight you mentioned going to be a federal program? State program? SEC? Homeland security?

Nancy I don’t have a quick logical cure because the the problem is so massive. I don’t like to just make blanket statements, if you read any of my posts they are all made in a cautious manner because that is how I work. I don’t know the quick fix to any of this but I know what is not the quick fix which is any intervention by politicians as well as taxpayer or non taxpayer funding to help out distressed homeowners.

Short of that I think the market correcting on it’s own will take care many (but not all of the issues) that contributed to the problem.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I agree with awombadavis as well. I lived in Crown Point for 12 years and would never sell the condo I have there. I think that most of the venom about PB comes from people who do not live there or have not lived many of the nicer areas of PB. To walk out of my place, have coffee with my next door neighbors, jump on the bike and head through Crown Point park around the bay and all the way to the jetty is something that I miss tremendously. It cannot be replicated pretty much anywhere in San Diego. I do not disagree with comments about Garnet but I don’t go hang out there. Just like another area where I lived (and still own) in Talmadge was very nice but only 4 blocks from El Cajon Blvd.

For the haters of PB one day go down and drive around or walk around the back streets of Crown Point behind Crown Point Drive.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I agree with awombadavis as well. I lived in Crown Point for 12 years and would never sell the condo I have there. I think that most of the venom about PB comes from people who do not live there or have not lived many of the nicer areas of PB. To walk out of my place, have coffee with my next door neighbors, jump on the bike and head through Crown Point park around the bay and all the way to the jetty is something that I miss tremendously. It cannot be replicated pretty much anywhere in San Diego. I do not disagree with comments about Garnet but I don’t go hang out there. Just like another area where I lived (and still own) in Talmadge was very nice but only 4 blocks from El Cajon Blvd.

For the haters of PB one day go down and drive around or walk around the back streets of Crown Point behind Crown Point Drive.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I agree with awombadavis as well. I lived in Crown Point for 12 years and would never sell the condo I have there. I think that most of the venom about PB comes from people who do not live there or have not lived many of the nicer areas of PB. To walk out of my place, have coffee with my next door neighbors, jump on the bike and head through Crown Point park around the bay and all the way to the jetty is something that I miss tremendously. It cannot be replicated pretty much anywhere in San Diego. I do not disagree with comments about Garnet but I don’t go hang out there. Just like another area where I lived (and still own) in Talmadge was very nice but only 4 blocks from El Cajon Blvd.

For the haters of PB one day go down and drive around or walk around the back streets of Crown Point behind Crown Point Drive.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

The reason it is important to discuss the future is because you cannot change the past.

Simply writing one liners that say disease, cause, symptoms and cure with retoric and emotion rather then discuss the future in a rational discourse does not seem to add much value to the board.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

The reason it is important to discuss the future is because you cannot change the past.

Simply writing one liners that say disease, cause, symptoms and cure with retoric and emotion rather then discuss the future in a rational discourse does not seem to add much value to the board.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

The reason it is important to discuss the future is because you cannot change the past.

Simply writing one liners that say disease, cause, symptoms and cure with retoric and emotion rather then discuss the future in a rational discourse does not seem to add much value to the board.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

How about John Edwards? He who wants to bail out everyone as well… Oh yeah didn’t I hear somewhere he has money in a company that has some involvement with foreclosures?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

How about John Edwards? He who wants to bail out everyone as well… Oh yeah didn’t I hear somewhere he has money in a company that has some involvement with foreclosures?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

How about John Edwards? He who wants to bail out everyone as well… Oh yeah didn’t I hear somewhere he has money in a company that has some involvement with foreclosures?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Sometimes just posting facts gets interpreted as being bullish…

SD Realtor

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