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August 22, 2007 at 8:16 PM in reply to: What were the total layoffs in California in the early 90’s #79504August 22, 2007 at 8:16 PM in reply to: What were the total layoffs in California in the early 90’s #79524
SD Realtor
ParticipantRad I don’t know about cali as a while but I know down here in San Diego alot of different places got hurt. Many of the engineering firms that had government contracts got hit pretty hard. Even those that did not got hit. At the time I worked for Unisys and then General Instrument and they both got hit pretty good. As I posted before, at General Instrument we had reorgs regularly through the early 90’s. Also my brother worked for developers back then and they got hit as well.
SD Realtor
ParticipantInteresting post Stan… “have a take…don’t suck” tg knows where that one is from…
On the one hand, what has happened in the last few weeks has happened quickly but on the other hand many posters here have been calling for this stuff to happen months and even a year ago. So to them, this is long overdue and cannot happen fast enough. I think that housing (on it’s own) just moves to slow to really force anything quick to happen. Now if there is that catalyst that can really prime the pump, it would be either substantial unemployment and/or a credit crunch that would really be tough. Yes the glimpses of what we had last week were eye openers but IMO we need that to happen and stay sustained and tack on another point or two on the rates. Then yes that could push the market into a chunk down situation. I think that would also serve to polarize the sellers much more then they are now. Sellers who are on the fence about selling would bail out of the market altogether and definitely choose to ride it out. Other sellers with large equity stakes who don’t have to move would do the same. Those that have to sell would do so and lower the asking price very quickly. Additionally the REO prices would come down fast, much faster then they have been in quick manner. Anyways with all that said and even if it did happen, I think the recovery would take awhile. True alot of properties may be snapped up quick by the “haves” while the “have nots” become renters, but I don’t think the market will snap up into an appreciation mode for awhile.
Also there is still the white elephant of the existing ARM Resets and such…
Ya never know though.
SD Realtor
ParticipantInteresting post Stan… “have a take…don’t suck” tg knows where that one is from…
On the one hand, what has happened in the last few weeks has happened quickly but on the other hand many posters here have been calling for this stuff to happen months and even a year ago. So to them, this is long overdue and cannot happen fast enough. I think that housing (on it’s own) just moves to slow to really force anything quick to happen. Now if there is that catalyst that can really prime the pump, it would be either substantial unemployment and/or a credit crunch that would really be tough. Yes the glimpses of what we had last week were eye openers but IMO we need that to happen and stay sustained and tack on another point or two on the rates. Then yes that could push the market into a chunk down situation. I think that would also serve to polarize the sellers much more then they are now. Sellers who are on the fence about selling would bail out of the market altogether and definitely choose to ride it out. Other sellers with large equity stakes who don’t have to move would do the same. Those that have to sell would do so and lower the asking price very quickly. Additionally the REO prices would come down fast, much faster then they have been in quick manner. Anyways with all that said and even if it did happen, I think the recovery would take awhile. True alot of properties may be snapped up quick by the “haves” while the “have nots” become renters, but I don’t think the market will snap up into an appreciation mode for awhile.
Also there is still the white elephant of the existing ARM Resets and such…
Ya never know though.
SD Realtor
ParticipantInteresting post Stan… “have a take…don’t suck” tg knows where that one is from…
On the one hand, what has happened in the last few weeks has happened quickly but on the other hand many posters here have been calling for this stuff to happen months and even a year ago. So to them, this is long overdue and cannot happen fast enough. I think that housing (on it’s own) just moves to slow to really force anything quick to happen. Now if there is that catalyst that can really prime the pump, it would be either substantial unemployment and/or a credit crunch that would really be tough. Yes the glimpses of what we had last week were eye openers but IMO we need that to happen and stay sustained and tack on another point or two on the rates. Then yes that could push the market into a chunk down situation. I think that would also serve to polarize the sellers much more then they are now. Sellers who are on the fence about selling would bail out of the market altogether and definitely choose to ride it out. Other sellers with large equity stakes who don’t have to move would do the same. Those that have to sell would do so and lower the asking price very quickly. Additionally the REO prices would come down fast, much faster then they have been in quick manner. Anyways with all that said and even if it did happen, I think the recovery would take awhile. True alot of properties may be snapped up quick by the “haves” while the “have nots” become renters, but I don’t think the market will snap up into an appreciation mode for awhile.
Also there is still the white elephant of the existing ARM Resets and such…
Ya never know though.
SD Realtor
ParticipantThanks eyepod for that and also the post in the other thread.
SD Realtor
ParticipantThanks eyepod for that and also the post in the other thread.
SD Realtor
ParticipantThanks eyepod for that and also the post in the other thread.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJames/Mix, yeah it does suck about trying to buy there… entry into the spots of PB where you would want to live, (away from the rentals and drunk 20 somethings sloshing around after hours) is priced in the stratosphere… I have seen some depreciation already in condos/townhomes there but they were so darn high to begin with that they have a ways to go to become affordable, specially for entry level buyers.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJames/Mix, yeah it does suck about trying to buy there… entry into the spots of PB where you would want to live, (away from the rentals and drunk 20 somethings sloshing around after hours) is priced in the stratosphere… I have seen some depreciation already in condos/townhomes there but they were so darn high to begin with that they have a ways to go to become affordable, specially for entry level buyers.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJames/Mix, yeah it does suck about trying to buy there… entry into the spots of PB where you would want to live, (away from the rentals and drunk 20 somethings sloshing around after hours) is priced in the stratosphere… I have seen some depreciation already in condos/townhomes there but they were so darn high to begin with that they have a ways to go to become affordable, specially for entry level buyers.
SD Realtor
ParticipantNancy I am sorry you feel that way. I would simply ask you to sit back and read this entire thread from the beginning based on what the original poster wrote, then look at the various responses, then look at your responses. If you agree after that, that your responses were well thought out and added value and perspective then so be it. Personally I did not. I felt they were filled with rancor towards pretty much everyone from politicians, the fed, accountants, auditors, ratings agencies, etc.
I am filled with that same animosity believe me. However my argument with your post is, I don’t feel it adds value to a constructive solution.
I am not against oversight at all… Jeez Nancy our own freeking city council and local government here is San Diego are corrupt. Many officials at the federal level are corrupt.
I don’t have a solution because I cannot wrap my arms around this entire problem yet. As I said I know what should not be done at the present time. Once again I will ask, are you advocating creating a large beauracracy (I am sure I spelled that wrong) to take over? Should we put the entire market of property transfer into government hands? It is very easy to sit and write thinks like it is everyone’s fault, they are all crooks, fire them all, regulate everything, the three uncle stooges will figure it out…
Haven’t we done that enough already? My main hope is that anyone or entity trying to politicize this gets identified and womped on.
Does this mean you won’t use me as your buyers agent? (sorry I shouldn’t have wrote that but I could not resist)
SD Realtor
ParticipantNancy I am sorry you feel that way. I would simply ask you to sit back and read this entire thread from the beginning based on what the original poster wrote, then look at the various responses, then look at your responses. If you agree after that, that your responses were well thought out and added value and perspective then so be it. Personally I did not. I felt they were filled with rancor towards pretty much everyone from politicians, the fed, accountants, auditors, ratings agencies, etc.
I am filled with that same animosity believe me. However my argument with your post is, I don’t feel it adds value to a constructive solution.
I am not against oversight at all… Jeez Nancy our own freeking city council and local government here is San Diego are corrupt. Many officials at the federal level are corrupt.
I don’t have a solution because I cannot wrap my arms around this entire problem yet. As I said I know what should not be done at the present time. Once again I will ask, are you advocating creating a large beauracracy (I am sure I spelled that wrong) to take over? Should we put the entire market of property transfer into government hands? It is very easy to sit and write thinks like it is everyone’s fault, they are all crooks, fire them all, regulate everything, the three uncle stooges will figure it out…
Haven’t we done that enough already? My main hope is that anyone or entity trying to politicize this gets identified and womped on.
Does this mean you won’t use me as your buyers agent? (sorry I shouldn’t have wrote that but I could not resist)
SD Realtor
ParticipantNancy I am sorry you feel that way. I would simply ask you to sit back and read this entire thread from the beginning based on what the original poster wrote, then look at the various responses, then look at your responses. If you agree after that, that your responses were well thought out and added value and perspective then so be it. Personally I did not. I felt they were filled with rancor towards pretty much everyone from politicians, the fed, accountants, auditors, ratings agencies, etc.
I am filled with that same animosity believe me. However my argument with your post is, I don’t feel it adds value to a constructive solution.
I am not against oversight at all… Jeez Nancy our own freeking city council and local government here is San Diego are corrupt. Many officials at the federal level are corrupt.
I don’t have a solution because I cannot wrap my arms around this entire problem yet. As I said I know what should not be done at the present time. Once again I will ask, are you advocating creating a large beauracracy (I am sure I spelled that wrong) to take over? Should we put the entire market of property transfer into government hands? It is very easy to sit and write thinks like it is everyone’s fault, they are all crooks, fire them all, regulate everything, the three uncle stooges will figure it out…
Haven’t we done that enough already? My main hope is that anyone or entity trying to politicize this gets identified and womped on.
Does this mean you won’t use me as your buyers agent? (sorry I shouldn’t have wrote that but I could not resist)
SD Realtor
ParticipantAlex I think that one should run different scenarios on paper to see what COULD happen and how long things COULD take.
Speculating that getting back to 05 prices will happen “fast” needs to have a cause correct? If the “rise” to get to the 05 prices was not based on true value but rather a highly speculative environment that was fueled by lending standards that will not be present again, along with an entirely different credit market, then I need to see what will fuel the “fast” rise back to 05 price levels after this cycle runs it’s course. I feel as if after we are done with this cycle, (which will not be for awhile based on the two previous cycle durations, AND the amount of reset activity still in the pipeline) that the market will be in an much healthier state. That state would then dictate a slow measured appreciation rate, not the runaway train we saw over the past few years….
I think taking a measured approach like testing different depths of the depreciation cycle, and then a rise back up again based on a different rates of appreciation, say 3 or 4% per year will yield results that will support an argument (in either direction) a bit better.
Here is an example…..A home sells for 600k in 2005. Looses 40% of its value to 360k. Then at 4% per year it takes 10 years to get back to 532k. Now we did not factor in transaction costs either. See what I am saying?
SD Realtor
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