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SD Realtor
ParticipantHmmm… 4plex I don’t really agree with that statement in the least. Changing prices conveys weakness and desperation. It is also a reflection that the home was not priced right to begin with. So your insinuating that realtors advocate lots of price changes simply to put your home on the hot list.
I disagree.
August 30, 2007 at 1:22 PM in reply to: Why is Texas dirt cheap compared to California for real estate? #82605ParticipantMix my in laws live in Richland Hills and really like it there. We have been out there and while it is not my cup of tea, the prices sure are nice.
Rereading the threads in here got me to thinking why I stay here. For all of the outdoors cool stuff SD has, I no longer get to enjoy nearly as much as I did pre kids…I guess if I really wanted to move I could do it and figure out a way to make a living somewhere else. Inherently I am lazy and somewhat afraid of change of that magnitude. I think alot of people may be that way… maybe not… I applaud those that have done it though. I forgot his name… renter someone though who did it.. he upped and bailed.
Why are prices high in SD? They are because the demand is there. Hopefully they will not always be so stratopheric high but I think from here on in SD will command a premium.
tg – we need to dedicate a user forum to a few things… sportstalk, things we used to do when we were kids, classic rock, I cannot even believe you used the m word but I was freeking cracking up) and some other assorted issues. I forgot about laying down sniper guy… I remembers mortar guy, standing sniper guy, hand grenade thrower guy (sidearm), flame thrower guy was a gem… of course binocular guy who usually took the first pebble to the chest…
SD Realtor
ParticipantI would agree… I think it depends on the climate in which this climate is abysmal and the amount of activity you have on the home. Seller psychology is such a wildcard… sometimes you get sellers who get it and some don’t. If you have a dog listing that has had 3 people come by in 4 months then you would figure a large cut is in order and then the seller lets you cut the price by 2% and you wanna pull your hair out.
SD Realtor
ParticipantThe longer you can wait the better… if you could even stick it out til the fall of 08 you will be better served then the spring of 08…
One thing to think about as well, which in my mind may be important but in others not so… the financing situation. If this is a long term investment then you need to analyze the long term financing costs of the home. What I am getting at here is that a difference in pricing over a long period of time should be analyzed against a difference in financing over that same period.
I don’t ever disagree with the thoughts that a lower price home at a higher rate is better then a higher price home at a lower rate. This is true because of refinancing possibilities in the future and less risk of depreciation when you buy the lower price asset. Still, there is something to be said for running the numbers out if you think that over the life of you owning the home, the interest rate climate is not going to be lower.
SD Realtor
ParticipantThree letters luxury…
PAC..
Anyways yeah it is pretty shameful the way they portray the market. Amazing that in times like this they could actually build credibility back up yet they don’t.
SD Realtor
Participant4Spotentialbuyer just be patient.
sdcellar seems to have a good strategy and more important is factually correct. Piensa has had price reductions compared to the past. It just takes time and the price you want or that is affordable to you may indeed not happen immediately. Try to take a long term view of the deal.
“How long will it take builders to realize that the market has changed?”
The builders know the market very very well. The problem is that they have tremendous margin built in. They will be aggressive when they have to. Think about it this way. Let’s say they slashed all Piensa pricing by 50k. Would that make it all affordable? IMO not really, but psychologically to people on their mailing lists and such, it very well could make a huge difference. It is all relative ya know?
“Perhaps winter? Also, has anyone had any success with using a realtor to make a lowball offer on new homes?”
I have been out to Piensa with 3 different couples in the last year and have made lowball offers. None of the offers were negotiated and the sales office stuck to their guns. Now maybe we came on a busy weekend or bad timing or whatever because I have heard success stories of negotiating. Kind of hard to say.
What needs to happen is more foreclosure activity in 4S so the resale pricing will come down as well and add more pressure to the builders. Resale pricing up there is CRAZY high and makes absolutely no sense to me.
SD Realtor
ParticipantShiloh while interest rates can drive the housing market the housing market does not drive interest rates. So when the housing market reaches the bottom, the interest rate cycle will be determined by the economy, the lending environment, bond yields etc. We will hit bottom alot faster if/when interest rates go up.
SD Realtor
August 30, 2007 at 10:30 AM in reply to: Freddie Mac agrees to accept some Alt-A loans = mini bail out = badnews #82581ParticipantI agree as well that this in itself will not do much to disrupt the Socal depreciation cycle. However I don’t think that any bailout will take the form of some massive one step announcement. What worries me more is death by a thousand needles. A small program here, a state sponsored program there, minority groups claiming that an overwhelming percentage of people losing their homes is in their group and this must be halted. Service agreements being altered to allow modification of rates because investors agree to take a lower return then lose their nut altogether, politicians promising that NO AMERICAN WILL BE PUT OUT ON THE STREET as long as you give me your vote…
Even in the worst case I don’t see anything reversing the trend locally here in town. However in that same worst case I do believe that the trend can be prolonged.
SD Realtor
August 30, 2007 at 10:20 AM in reply to: San Diego area zips in “Top 500” foreclosure zip codes in US #82579ParticipantWhy is this a surprise to anyone?
Guys all along we have been saying that the outlying areas and the speculative areas are going to get hit first and hit hardest. How many times do we have to post that. Every now and then someone comes in and whips everyone into a frenzy by posting a foreclosure in Torrey Hills or 4S or La Costa Valley but these locations are not going to be presenting miraculous deals until later in the cycle.
It is depressing but it makes sense. San Diego has alot of people in it and a decent fraction of those people make alot of money. The ONLY thing that will accelerate the depreciation in areas where most of us want to live will be a disruption in employment.
For my own selfish purposes I want the prices to dump in Solana Beach or Scripps or wherever but I am resigned to the fact that they will happen at a much slower pace then in Eastlake, Murrieta, or Escondido. Why wouldn’t they? They have higher income occupants, they have much less speculation, they most likely have less toxic loans then these other places AND they have a higher tolerance to live with the toxicity for a longer time.
Am I missing something in that this makes perfect sense and will continue to be this way?
Let me put it another way… why do people think these other places where they want to live would come down very quickly, as quick as these less desireable areas?
SD Realtor
Participant75 bp in one swoop! hohoho… I guess stranger things have happened.
SD Realtor
August 29, 2007 at 10:53 PM in reply to: Why is Texas dirt cheap compared to California for real estate? #82528Participant“I always thought the bazooka man was overated too, but he always went in the first round, you could bank on it.”
What freeking planet are you from!! rack that one for sure. I was cracking up tg… Bazooka man did goes first but some times the tripod machine gun man would go first. It was always a very tough call…
Don’t even get me started on electric football cuz I KNOW you were all in on that game my friend… errrrrrrrrrrrr…what a classic that was.
SD Realtor
ParticipantMix I like both of them two… Mo is a little bit 20/20 hindsight to me though. He always talks about what moves his company did prior to whatever the market did… yet I still listen to him now and then. Ray is cool as well. My wife and I have been to one of the free seminars they did. Also my wife and I have visited their offices a few times in the past 3 years. I think I got Rick Plum kind of bummed at me… About 1.5 years ago we were at the office talking to him and he was talking about the new home he bought in Blossom Valley. I didn’t really say anything but then he asked me what I thought of the market and I told him… He was sure that his market wouldn’t be affected… I didn’t want to get into it with him so I just said we’ll see what happens…. Ray on the other hand sold his RB home in the last year.
Trey sorry bout sidebarring the thread. I think you are doing fine. I know saving for a dp is a real chore. Also if in the next few years interest rates go up AND underwriting restrictions tighten up, that will put even more pressure on first time buyers to come up with a bigger dp. Even with that said, 401k and any sort of tax deferred vehicle where you can defer gains is just such a darn good deal. I think a financial planner can run numbers for you to see if seeding a home dp account rather then maxing these other vehicles out is a rational thing to do for a few years.
SD Realtor
ParticipantUpdate time.
8/27/07 – 92131
Total Actives – 127 up by 9
Total Pendings – 32 down by 4Closed escrows (sold) in the past week – 6 up 4
New listings added in the past week – 11 up 5
New pendings from 1 week ago – 4 down 1
New withdrawns from 1 week ago – 0 down 4
New cancelled from 1 week ago – 2 same
New expireds from 1 week ago – 3 up 1*****************
8/27/07 – 92126
Actives – 193 down 6
Pendings – 42 up 1Closed escrows (sold) in the past week – 9 down 4
New listings since last week – 7 down 5
New pendings from 1 week ago – 7 up 2
New withdrawns from 1 week ago – 5 up 2
New cancelled from 1 week ago – 1 up 1
New expired from 1 week ago – 2 down 5*****************************
SD Realtor
ParticipantThat was the exact point of my post. That even with the low 10 yr yield, mortgage rates are not as low as they were at this time last year when the 10 year bottomed at this level. Conforming are pretty close but other loan programs are not. The premium for moving mortgages on the secondary market is definitely the culprit. The fact that the 10 year has come down is what has kept mortgage rates where they are. If the secondary market remains this tight when the 10 year yield does reverse trend and goes up then we will see a more restrictive environment to say the least.
SD Realtor
ps = helicopter boy is in a tight spot… my wish is that he doesn’t touch the rate. However I give it a 75% chance that he will bow to pressure and knock it down at least 25 bp. I REALLY hope I am wrong.
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