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SD Realtor
ParticipantMy mood is particularly foul today with these announcements. I have been to two listing appointments this morning with people who are underwater. Both of them crowed about this announcement. I asked them if they have any idea if they qualify, and if they thought this was fair to those who had not bought and instead were prudent and rented.
They both said that is not their problem in the least.
The result was that both of them felt they could list their homes at higher pricing then comps suggested and that if they couldn’t make payments they thought in one way or another they would be bailed out.
I am steaming right now.
SD Realtor
August 31, 2007 at 8:12 AM in reply to: Bailout : No comprehensive plan just “death by a thousand cuts.” More evidence . . . #82765ParticipantI don’t want to be right… I just want the government to keep out.
Welcome to the United Socialist States of America, the greatest welfare state in the land.
I cannot wait to see what the dems roll out once the political season heats up.
The worst thing about the entire stinky mess is that it will NOT reverse the trend in my opinion. It will just prolong it…More of my tax money will go to something stupid…I am really going to have to rethink my own estimate of the bottom coming in the 2010-2011 range depending on how many more lame rescue attempts get rolled out through the next 18 months.
SD Realtor
August 31, 2007 at 12:21 AM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #82736ParticipantFLU I think the reasoning on the IO loan is to conserve cash for dp on the detached home down the road. It is not a question of being upside down in the future, he will be upside down and most likely not be a little. However the condo will be kept and turned into a rental. The problem there is negative cash flow which indeed could be more substantial then at first glance. This is by far one of the largest underestimations first time landlords make.
One other disturbing thing about condos that “may” occur. Given a large complex that will undergo severe depreciation and may see substantial foreclosures that will have a potentially severe effect on HOA reserves. Remaining homeowners “may” indeed face assessments or reserve requirements payments due to the fact of shortfalls from higher vacancies….I doubt that a lender pays HOA dues for an empty condo, perhaps I am wrong. It is speculative to mention this but it certainly is not out of the realm of possibility.
SD Realtor
August 30, 2007 at 11:40 PM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #82732ParticipantWantobuy the most constructive suggestion I have would be to run the numbers out in all three cases. Buying the condo, buying the home, and not buying either. In each case run out a few depreciation scenarios so that you actually have some numbers in front of you to analyze. Hopefully by showing your wife some potential savings of tens (or maybe even hundreds) of thousands of dollars, that could help her to realize the reticent feelings you have regarding the home purchase. Usually with couples their is always one person who wants and one who doesn’t. The one who doesn’t rarely has gone through the troubles to illustrate the financial reasoning on paper. Usually it is a one sided argument with the one who doesn’t want to buy sitting there saying, I am telling you the market will go down. Meanwhile the one who does want to buy points out that homes in the area he/she wants to buy in have depreciated by smaller margins in the neighborhoods they want to buy in, then in all the other neighbordhoods that have fallen 30%. This is all to common. It is a pain in the ass to run numbers out on a spreadsheet but it really may help.
SD Realtor
August 30, 2007 at 11:32 PM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #82726ParticipantI agree we all are entitled to our opinions JWM and I certainly didn’t say anything about people should hold back.
This is not like a new poster or anything like that. The guy has been on Piggington for awhile. I don’t agree with his buying either. The absolute best thing for him to do fiscally is to simply continue to rent. Buying a little little less expensive turd rather then a big expensive turd is still buying a turd…
No I am sure she will not divorce the guy for not buying. However I think that every situation is different and what is presented here is a sliver of what some people go through. He clearly stated they can afford 4S now if they wanted and he clearly stated that they are thinking of a long horizon. Even with that I don’t agree with the decision to buy.
Sound logic would dictate not to have children either. They are a pain in the ass, they are expensive as all hell, they crap all over, pee everywhere, hurl and drool and they have the uncanny knack to wait until you have just changed clothes to leave you with a huge goober, they take every freeking minute of your time until they are old enough to tell you to butt out of their life, and then they leave. Is it logical to want those? Are you kidding me? More then half of my friends who are married are like, no chance we will ever have kids… in this world? There is no logic to that. Granted it is a poor analogy but life is not all about sound logic to every person.
Your tone is okay, you are passionate about the beliefs and you are not trying to be hurtful, you are just trying to pound logic into people because it amazes you that they even consider making the purchase. That is why I think you come down hard with the hammer. It makes sense and in the end you are just trying to save this guy some hard earned money which is actually kind hearted. I do think you easily swat away any other personal issues because in your opinion they are of no consequence whatsoever.
I am trying just as hard not to counter the fiscal argument but to at the very least consider that life is not all sound logic for some people.
SD Realtor
August 30, 2007 at 11:09 PM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #82711ParticipantJWM why doesnt he just leave his wife?
Why should he listen to the person he has committed his life to when he has all the company he needs right here on Piggington?
I am sure the board here will comfort him, sleep with him, raise his kids, go to church or temple with him, comfort him on holidays and all that other fun stuff.
What CONSTANTLY amazes me is how people love to project their own values on other people. I have ABSOLUTELY NO ARGUMENT that it is not a depreciating asset. None. I do marvel at how many people so easily dismiss any other issues personal or otherwise with regards to people who have wishes that are contrary to the prevailing opinion of the board.
It is one thing to present a logical argument about a depreciating asset, a failing economy, a recession around the corner. No argument here. NONE.
However to completely stomp on all other personal issues with a simple line, “grow some balls”… yep I guess we should all just fall in line.
SD Realtor
August 30, 2007 at 10:28 PM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #82696Participantyep… that is definitely the kind of response I figured you would get.
expect many more like that.
SD Realtor
August 30, 2007 at 10:22 PM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #82694ParticipantWhich complex in RB? I am curious as I am real familiar with many of them….
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I think that condos will depreciate just as much if not more then detached homes.
I can seriously relate to the pressure so I understand. At least you will not have as much to lose equity wise. Just understand that you will not be selling that condo soon without a loss. So what you are doing is trading the rent payment for an interest payment which is not bad. So after you ran the numbers your mortgage, HOA and property tax covered your current rent?
I will not sit here and scrub all the numbers with you, however I do want to make sure you are happy with them.
Potential pitfalls include the depreciation on the condo may exceed the detached home percentage wise. Also while condo living is better then home living, you still share walls and are subject to HOA and close proximity to others. If the housing market depreciation gets delayed or slowed down by external factors that price point for 4S detached homes may not happen as fast as you like. Pray that the wife pressure doesn’t kick in earlier then you want to get out of the condo and into the home.
Other people may bash you harder for buying at all. Hang in there and do what makes your life easier and more comfortable…
After all, if you default on the condo the FHA will bail you out!!
SD Realtor
August 30, 2007 at 10:03 PM in reply to: San Diego area zips in “Top 500” foreclosure zip codes in US #82689ParticipantStan I highly disagree…
“if you can get the same house in Temecula as 4S for less than half the price, you will see people make that trade-off, which will pull buyers out of the desirable areas.”
This is already the case today in some cases. For all of the people I have taken over to 4S all of none of them would even consider places like Temecula. It is highly impractical and people are not going to trade a commute from 4S to Sorrento Vally for a ride out to Temecula.
I am not saying nice areas will not depreciate. They may even match the depreciation percentage wise of less desireable areas. However the timing will not be the same, as this is clearly evident. I also still believe, and of course this is only my opinion that in some nice areas the depreciation will not match the less desireable areas percentage wise.
SD Realtor
ParticipantYou cannot have your cake and eat it to stockstradr. Recessions equal job loss… the bigger the recession the more jobs get lost. I have posted before on this… Worked at General Instrument in the early 90s and that recession what pretty mild but it didn’t stop them from having reorgs every few months.
Once tech starts contracting it gets ugly in a hurry.
BTW I am in the same boat engineering wise.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI am just disgusted. It is exactly what I expected. Soon I will just trade in my dollars for monopoly money.
Participantmgu you are correct, as long term rates indeed are not indexed to the ffr. They follow the long bonds.
SD Realtor
ParticipantThe Chicago listing doesn’t even mention it was an REO… Wowsers… It was purchased in 05 for 665k, then it went to the lender for 650k (trustee sale) and now Prudential has it listed for 445k. NICE… that is a cool 30% off of the 2005 price. Now that is tempered with the fact that it is a 2/2 1248 sf home but still… encouraging at the very least. I assume we are talking about the same home, 3368 Chicago. The Lloyd address is 2915 Lloyd. That 799k price will probably piss off 3023 Lloyd who is on the market for 1.199M-1.399M.
SD Realtor
Participantstopthebubblehype that is a pretty good theory. You would think that the developer would let the buyers renegotiate. However that logic makes to much sense so I guess we shouldn’t be surprised if they don’t do that.
stockstradr if you ever ride mtn bikes the ride from the top of mt woodson down to poway lake is a fun one… except you need to pick up the car at the backside of mt woodson.
SD Realtor
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