[SD Realtor]

Once again, the post was not to provide an argument over whether prime areas will get cut, or by how much they will get cut.

Seems to me that we always see posts by people complaining that prices are not dropping in the neighborhoods they are looking. Then there are the infamous, “how much do you think the market will drop posts”… Then there are the invariable posts, foreclosures are up 500% so get ready for the big chunk down hype…

Again, I am just trying to provide some data that is showing that the distress will affect different areas at different rates. Maybe 4S will drop 20% in a month… I don’t know. I can say with confidence though that foreclosure rates and distress vary SUBSTANTIALLY throughout the county. That people who are searching for housing in the more desireable locations may want to calibrate their timeframes on when they think these desireable areas will become affordable or at least more affordable.

The argument is not about price compression it is about the temporal rate of that compression. I think sometimes there are posts that are way to hopeful/optimistic about the rate and magnitudes of the drops in the desireable regions. I think they will happen but it will take awhile.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

If the seller knew about these fees then yes there is a liability issue here regarding disclosure. Conversely, when you purchased the condo, during your discovery period you should have been given ccrs, hoa bylaws, and all pertinent information regarding the HOA, dues, assessments, etc. Similarly prior to closing escrow should have uncovered any outstanding debt that the seller had.

If you can come up with proof that the Seller was indeed aware of these debts/assessments you may have a case. The easiest way to do this is perhaps contact the HOA to confirm that they indeed notify the seller of these debts/assessments when he owned the property. If the total is under the small claims limit then you can take him to small claims to get the balance.

I am not an attorney and the statements above are speculative on my part. Please understand that.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Interesting that this is not marketted on the ushomeauction site that redc usually uses. This is on the redchomeauction.com website. The usual rules apply including the reserve pricing that patientlywaiting brought up. I would imagine the 5% broker fee to the winning bid applies as well.

It will be interesting to see how this one does.

Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Good to hear back from you. The patsies scare me… Moss, Stallworth and Welker make that receiver corps scary scary good. Meanwhile we put gates out as our second receiver last week. Not sure why floyd was not in on as many plays as I would have hoped…. I think patsies cover easy next week unless we get serious pressure on Brady…

As for your theory about not wanting to play in neighborhoods that have not run down yet… it may have merit. It depends on how far down you think those neighborhoods will run. The point of the post is to try to calibrate people with respect to the timeframes that I think we need to realize in order for this to play out like we want, where we want.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

heheheh –

now we are talking! totally agree with ya.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Arty I have never seen lenders move long term mortgage rates by 40 basis points in a single day in the down direction. In general the only reason they move down is due to competition. Yet they move them up at the touch of feather. I am not talking about treasury yields, please reread, or rather I will restate it here. I have never seen lenders move rates down 30-40 basis points on a single movement. I have seen them move them down incrementally over time.

Your post said you expected rates to move down 30-40 basis points. To me a rate is the rate quoted given no buydown, it is not the treasury yield, or fed funds rate or libor or anything like that, nor is it the buydown amount. Again, and I am not a mortgage broker, I am talking about a simple long term mortgage rate you will get quoted. Now there very well may be a chunk down simply as the credit market greases up a bit to make up for the overreaction we have seen. However I will be very surprised to see that. I would envision small slivers down as each lender tries to undercut each other as long as the secondary market will purchase these instruments.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Beachlover these areas will take longer to drop. They will drop eventually, as to how much they will drop varies with who you ask. The problem is that these areas have stronger fundamentals. They do not have the degree of speculation that many other areas have had. They typically are also characterized by larger home equity stakes, more stable owners, and of course higher wage earners. Additionally these homeowners ON THE AVERAGE, have not treated their homes as ATMs. On the whole there is less distress in many of the more desireable areas. Distress will creep into them and then they will start to fall at an uneven pace…(see 2 paragraphs down)

I am not saying there will not be foreclosures in some of these areas, I am saying however they will be to a lesser degree. Furthermore as these are more desireable areas their will continue to be a demand for them. The demand will of course not be as strong as previous years but it will still be there.

Within these more desireable areas I feel there will be variances as to the declines. In general I feel the newer the area is, the more prone it will be to a decline both temporal and substantiative. That is, to me 4S will fall sooner and fall harder then Solana Beach. You get my drift? Fundamentally 4S is on much shakier ground then say Solana Beach.

When I have more time I was going to try to do a short/reo comparison of desireable verses non desireable zip code to see if there is a disparity and I think it will become more evident.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

The house is being marketted by Coldwell Banker. They are listing the home. Your choices are as follows:

1 – Call the listing agent and ask her to represent you. Discuss your strategy with her and see what she thinks.

2 – Call the listing agent and tell her you would like to make an offer and that you will not be represented. Ask her what steps she would require you to take in order to convey your offer.

3 – Get an agent to represent you. That agent will make sure all of the proper documentation is used.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi An

Yep ol David Markel the broker gave up and put the home in Withdrawn status on 9/2/07. He was at 639-651k when he pulled it off the market. As Rustico said the reassessment will not show up until the the next tax cycle.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I am not so sure I have ever in my life seen rates move 30-40 basis points down in a single day. I have seen them move up that much but never down.

So I disagree on that point.

However I do absolutely agree with you that the high premiums we saw since the beginning of August may indeed be shortlived. I think many in the industry thought that the reaction was an overreaction and that time was needed to smooth it out. As we have had several weeks of relative calm on that front indeed we are seeing the wheels get a little grease. That will most likely continue until there is major news to disrupt it…I use the term until rather then unless because I feel this will be a recurring theme… credit gets tight on lots of bad news… then no news for awhile so it loosens up… then it tightens up again on bad news… repeat lather rinse…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Stan –

Okay so the MLS reported 2048 sold properties from 8/1-8/31. Dataquick covers more properties because most all of the new home sales are not advertised on the MLS.

Once more please do not assume NOTs become REO’s. I have not looked at the latest statistics but I believe we are still below 40% of all NOTs turning into REO properties. So I believe that the number of REO’s don’t comprise a 40-50% level of resale homes on the market.

HOWEVER… the counter to that argument is that a property does not have to be an REO just to be distressed. Lets not forget short sales, and other distressed properties that are not yet REO that are for sale. Additionally let’s not forget about the properties that are REO but have been on the market and then pulled off the market.

So the bottom line is that yes we are seeing and will contine to see more and more distress properties making a larger percentage of the housing stock… unfortunately this is also continuing to happen in the predominantly less desireable areas. It would be nice to see this happen in the areas that most posters want to live in… I believe that will happen in a creeping manner… it will still take time…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

The other number for Fara Salamat is 949 249 6611.

I am not quite sure why you think this is such a great deal. The lender got it back for 578k at the end of June.

I think if you wait awhile you can do alot better. I see that the Oceanside zip codes will be taking some pretty hefty hits as time goes on.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

BSR they still go through the entire foreclosure process. In order to resell the property again, it has to clear title. There is no shortcuts being avoided.

Your point in that it makes sense still is valid though.

What I don’t understand is if it opens up any liability issues.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

He probably would have classified for a 100 I/O loan though…. I am telling you he was classic. He was doing that dance for at least 15 minutes through the entire ceremony…

He did not come over and ask for money though!

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

ps – you have to click on each picture to really see the bum… I wish she would have shot him as he was doing his 3 stooges nyuk nyuk nyuk.. it was vintage…

SD Realtor

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