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SD Realtor
Participantlendingbubble – that was a vintage episode…
chiph – develop a thick skin and you do fine here….
Chiph – lets talk about the San Diego market in general since that is my own selfish world. What do you see the FHA limits being pushed up to? Do you think the 125% of the median will happen as it is trying to wind it’s way through congress?
The biggest thing that I am concerned with, is that here we are basically providing taxpayers money to now insure people who could not afford their own home to begin with. Even with stronger underwriting I am worried that we now take someone who has once failed, rewrite their loan, then they struggle a few more months, then they lose their job then my tax dollars go to work for them…
This is my big concern. I am much happier with the way things are now and I am a big believer in letting the market forces capitulate like they need to do.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Amy –
As waterboy said there is a suit pending. A Lis Pendens can be filed against a property for many reasons, to long to go into here, but it does need to be resolved before title can be passed along. Why wouldn’t the builder renew? Again, lots of reasons, perhaps they want the Lis Pendens to get resolved, maybe they think they will sit out the fall and come back in the spring, maybe they want to do more work on it… Why would the second price be higher? Not sure… maybe they needed mo money out of it… maybe they had high demand….
I don’t have a clue about bonehead moves like that…but at least it is not in escrow!
SD Realtor
ParticipantThat very well could be….again, I am not in the same camp that they will be the same in all areas but I not of the belief that they were untouchable either.
Once more, the real point I was trying to make is the timing of it. We will continue to see frustrated I want to buy now or in 4 months from now buyers in some of these areas and I don’t see these areas being forced down substantially for awhile. That is the point I was trying to make, that for people thinking La Costa Valley is going to plummet 20% in a year, I don’t see it… maybe in 2 years, maybe not… UTC or Eastlake 20% in a year or 18 months? Much better odds…
SD Realtor
ParticipantAmy obviously your realtor did not do much research on the home. That particular home was listed for sale back in October of 2006. It was listed for 1.295M-1.395M. The listing did not sell and expired in April of 07. The listing then went back on the market 2 months later in June of 07 at 1.429M! Currently the property has a Lis Pendens filed on it so that would need to be dealt with before anybody bought the home.
Anyways the listing has expired, the house is not in escrow.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi JC –
Hey no harm in asking right? I would rather people be up front as that is how I am…
I am okay with taking on clients that are in the lowball camp. I don’t mind writing up those offers and submitting them. I do let the clients know that there is no chance at this point in time that those offers will get accepted. I also do ask them (my client) if they are okay with me calling the listing agent and running it by them verbally so that I save both myself and the buyer time of writing up something formal. If the buyer insists on me writing something up then I will go ahead and do so. Also in alot of these types of cases I ask that the client help me out and do drive bys on the homes they are really interested in before asking me to show. You would be surprised how many homes get filtered out on a simple drive by. Anyways as you can see it is somewhat cooperative.
Most buyers who are really selective and looking for a deal kind of work in cycles…. they will be really active for a few weeks/months, then lay low for awhile, then repeat the cycle again.
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I think there are some good points made in this thread about lowballs. I do think it is way to early for those homes (sellers) in desireable areas to accept lowball offers. They just are not doing it…at least not at the percentages we are all hoping. It cannot hurt to try, and I think that the odds go up if you are trying to lowball in Eastlake or El Cajon as opposed to Carmel Valley or Carlsbad…
Amy even though the home you really like didn’t happen for you just stick to your guns, it will happen someday. For your realtor to not acknowledge what is happening is not uncommon. Believe it or not there are realtors who firmly believe the correction is done. Even if it flies in the face of all logic.
Participantcarlover you have posted a very correct response. I am incorrectly lumping federal measures of increasing insurance to a bailout and that is incorrect. However it (increasing the FHA limit) is a knee jerk response (by the government) to the current situation and that is what I object to. I also note that your previous posts are well thought out and are sound, (that 30-40 basis point typo not withstanding…:))
I will say this, like you I am actually looking to purchase a home. I don’t want to purchase now or in the near future but I will have to for family reasons. In essence a program like this will help me immensely as well and personally it will in fact lead to me getting a much better rate and a much larger amount of money if the timeline falls in place.
Anyways, again, I don’t like it because it is a response to the current MUCH NEEDED price correction, not because it was done in fairness to anything. You are correct that the goal is to restore confidence in the secondary market but that secondary market needed a slap in the face and it needs to sting for awhile and overall it would be better for it to restore it’s own confidence by a stronger underwriting procedure put in place by originators. That would eventually happen…
Still, I don’t agree with it but thank you for the correction.
Bugs I agree rates will go higher but if there is a recession I don’t see that happening for awhile. I think we will be stuck in a 10 yr treasury range of 4.25 (dare I say 4.0?) to 5.25 for at least another year or 2 depending on how bad things get.
SD Realtor
ParticipantChiph can you comment on the activity within the program yet? Have you originated any new loans with this? Any of these happening in California, or more closer to my home here in San Diego?
SD Realtor
Participantlol…
“Are you high?”
Now that is a post… little lady direct and to the point.
SD Realtor
Participantooops!!
I was not aware you were out of state… I have no knowledge of real estate law in florida as state laws vary. Please consider what I posted advisory to california only.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi gn –
I understand what you are saying. I think the biggest thing that is misunderstood is the NOD/NOT reporting. I think that if anything people should give the most creedence to the REO numbers because those are absolute. NOD/NOT curing however is still a pretty high percentage and when that happens there are no statistics that ever get adjusted.
Similarly the type of housing is important, I wish the NOD/NOT/REO reporting was parsed to housing type as well.
SD Realtor
Participantgn –
Please read the parameters of how I performed the search. What I used was the MLS and it was only for detached homes using the strings I presented. There may indeed be many more distressed condos and/or detached homes that are not on the MLS. I only go by the data I presented.
Have you parsed through the Carlsbad data to see which homes are condos? The other thing that is troubling to me is I sent some email to Realtytrac which is indicative of these third party providers and I was never sent a response.
My question was, when there is a NOD or NOT that has been recorded but not cured, when is that NOD or NOT removed from your statistics. Well they never got back to me on that.
Does anyone have any idea?
Finally, if you want to provide me with the addresses of the REO properties from the graph above I will be more then happy to do a lookup to see how recent the REO is.
Realtor
Participant“Keep in mind that Sept will be the month that shows the full shock of the credit event in Aug.”
LA_Renter… perhaps, but I think that the seasonal decline associated with Sept/Oct/Nov may mask that effect somewhat. It may be difficult to discern that effect. Also I believe that the credit crunch will ebb and flow. We saw a very harsh contraction and now we are seeing things ease up a little bit (much to the chagrin of many posters here). Everyone was all whipped up about it and we saw tons of posts yet I have only seen one post recently by carlover about the fact that it actually has lessened to some extent. I believe we will have a credit market that is tighter then it has been, yet it will oscillate between being very very harsh and just kind of harsh over the next few years. Especially if a recession does kick in.
I think that maybe September will show the full shock but I think that we will see seasonally low numbers because fall is always soft….yeah they may be adjusted somewhat due to the secular downtrend/credit crunch etc…I am just hopeful that the sales volume come spring of 08 will still continue to be below spring of 07.
My read is that at some point the sales volumes will flatten out and not decline anymore. At that point I am hopeful that the median starts to fall some. This of course is a long term projection over the next few years.
SD Realtor
ParticipantTime Exhale… it just takes time man…
SD Realtor
ParticipantRay you have made a key point. I have made a few lowball offers in the past year in the 5-10% range under the asking price. No takers at all… only a small subset even countered.
I have found much more reluctance for lowball offers in the more desireable regions as well. It has been a nogo for my clients in 4S, in La Costa Valley, in RP, RB and Sabre Springs. It did work for my client off of Olivenhain but that took awhile.
As you transition into the more desireable region the psychology/distress level changes rapidly. As Bugs pointed out the mindset is not even close to being where it needs to be, especially in those regions.
SD Realtor
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