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SD Realtor
ParticipantVeees condos in both areas UTC and 4S are taking a pretty thorough beating. Since the condo stock in 4S is newer then UTC it is harder to measure the performance there. However resale condos in both areas have taken it harder. My read is that UTC will fall harder in the short run but will become stable before 4S condos do. At some point UTC condos will hit a price level that will attract investors. At that time the 4S numbers will not make it to that level because it will lag in the decline. Please make sure you study the carrying costs as well for both home types, hoa, additional insurance, and more then likely in 4S MR fees.
My STAUNCH advice would be to wait in both cases but if you are going to buy, try to drive a hard bargain.
SD Realtor
ParticipantYep you can email it to [email protected]. I will look it over… was there any other documentation that you signed besides the listing agreement? Were there any addendums or supplements? Include them if there were.
SD Realtor
ParticipantCabrillo was okay. Looks like phase 3 is pretty much all closed escrow successfully with the exception of one home which they were pushing pretty hard. It was a plan 3 and they were pushing it for 799k with alot of upgrades (and front and back landscape) already in it. They need closing by 10/22 and they advertised a 5.875% 30 year fixed jumbo as part of the package. They also said they were taking offers which to me was a difference then in the past.
The sales office was pretty busy and there was definite traffic in the models as well. The Mission Possible promotion to me does not have much meat in it. In total it is a 30k incentive package, 15k for buy downs and 15k for other upgrade incentives so I was underimpressed. Also when it is all said and done you are forking out 1.9% between property taxes and MR and then tack on another 170 a month for HOA. On the flip side yes the neighborhood is nice and you get a 3k sq foot home. (for plan 3) We only went to Cabrillo and didn’t visit the other Standard Pacs developments.
The 3 open houses we say in Carmel Valley were pretty well attended. We were on the west end of Carmel Valley off of Ocean View (past where El Camino turns into Carmel Mtn…
SD Realtor
Participantbuyorhold
Sorry to hear things are not working out.
Any listing agreement may be cancelled at any time. The first course of action is to simply address the issue directly with the agent. Simply call him up and ask him to send you a cancellation of listing agreement. This is a simple 1 page CAR (California Association of Realtor) form. When fully executed, (signed by both parties) it essentially terminates your listing agreement.
In the event that the agent resists or does not agree, then the next step is to go to the broker and ask the broker for the same thing. In all likelihood the broker will ask if you would like to use another agent, etc… If you do want to use another agent then great, the problem will be solved, if not then stick to your guns and demand the broker release you from the listing agreement. Make sure that the broker sends you the cancellation of listing form.
In the event that the broker disagrees then let the broker know that your next move will be to file a formal complaint with the California Dept of Real Estate. Thus the broker has a choice of retaining an unhappy client by force and getting a complaint lodged against him, or simply letting you out of the contract. 99 times out of 100 the brokers let people out of the contract. There are other steps that you can take if he does not but I would be willing to bet that he will if you go this far.
If you want I can look over your listing agreement to let you know if there are any ramications readily visible in the document. Even if there are you will most likely get the broker to drop them. For instance, there was a couple who had an agreement with Remax in the spring that showed a 2k expense fee to be paid in the event of cancellation. Well they did cancel and no they did not pay that expense fee. It took many phone calls and such but in the end it worked out and they did not have to consult a lawyer or file a complaint with the DRE. If you are firm and stick to your guns it will be fine.
The fact of the matter is that yes you can cancel at any time. The practical aspect is that if you do it correctly and use the proper documentation and show the broker you know the law, it will be easier and less time consuming.
SD Realtor
ParticipantYes Allan I agree… the hoody is a sharp coach… never a dispute there. He also seems to reload on staff as well… and with Welker and Moss, and lest we forget Stallworth the Patsies are scary good….
I was working yesterday but I heard cbass clanked one off the posts yesterday but nonetheless the silver and blackshould win a few more games this year then last… the chargers… well like I said, let’s see if they use this as a wakeup call… I haven’t read the paper yet so I am hopeful that olivea is not to dinged up… I know phillips went out for awhile yesterday as well…
SD Realtor
ParticipantTg not a bad analysis at all my friend. I do have to agree with you about Norverd… or Norvell… or whatever the hell his name is short for because his parents better not have named that kid Norv… (btw you do know that bud blacks name is Harry)
Anyways not a bad call and I cannot disagree on those points. Darn right about our talent and I do hope that we use this as a tool and find out we are looking up and not down at the elite teams in the AFC. I like Cowher but no coach of quality/strong personality will ever come to SD with AJ in place. Not to say AJ is bad as the dude can draft and he seems to have an eye for talent… Yet make no mistake he will be the biggest fish in the pond for better or for worse… and yeah Cowher will come as he is an old buddy of Marty so he would tell AJ to stick it if AJ did call him.
As for women… get yourself a dog or borrow one of your buddies dogs and drag your ass to a dog park or the beach… we had the kids at dog beach in rivermouth today (off of via de la valle)… About 20 feet behind us was a tasty little nugget all alone with her dog… Dragging yourself to new developments in Temecula that you know will depreciate another 30% is not worth your time…load up the sled and put an hour on the road and test the waters my friend… that… or do what I did and hit match.com…next thing ya know you will have a wife and a few kids and go wtf happened here! hehehehe
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi carlover –
Looks like you got the answers you need. Did not make it to 4S ranch today. I did get up to Cabrillo Del Sur though. and can give you a report if you want. Just request it in the thread. Looks like other posters have got you covered.
SD Realtor
ParticipantCarlover, I may be up that way tomorrow. If I am I will stop in and check but I cannot promise…I have a few people I am working with and one of them wants to go to 4S.
SD Realtor
ParticipantMost places that have granny flats will say so. Thus if you are looking in Zip or Realtor.com just check the details and it should say. On the MLS realtors will always put in the comments if there is a granny flat. There is not really a granny flat field. There is an optional field for an extra room, but generally realtors will enter granny flat or detached studio in the comments section. It does make the search somewhat manual. When a listing is imported from realtor.com from an MLS service since there is no seperate granny flat field in the MLS, there is no granny flat field in realtor.com either.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI will stick my neck out on this one. I have always said that I am not so sure that all neighborhoods will depreciate in the same manner. I think that there will be a bit less distress in these areas and there is an element of higher homeowner equity in these areas as well. Yes I could very well be wrong. I don’t know if LJ and Del Mar ran up as much as the rest of the county. They very well could have. Yet I believe more people also buy in these neighborhoods to live rather then to flip.
Anyways I am sure lots of darts will be thrown at me. I am not saying LJ and Del Mar will not go down, I think they will go down, but %wise I am not sure if they will run down as much as they ran up.
SD Realtor
Participantbeachlover I would have to agree with Bugs on that one. All things being equal right now the financing opportunities are pretty good. Do you think you would be able to sell then buy with a conforming loan?
Look I will stick to my usual line. If you only look at the pure economics of the situation…just purely economics only, and if you believe that there will be substantial depreciation in the neighborhood you want to live in… and you are willing to wait for that depreciation to occur… then the prudent move is to sell now, then rent for a few years, then buy.
I think if you are considering selling then if you don’t do it now then you may want to do it as soon as spring comes along. It would not surprise me if we get a little bump in the spring. Of course that bump will hurt you when you buy so maybe that means you sell now and then buy now…. I know it is a tough call.
As far as the board is concerned the overwhelming majority of people here will tell you to sell now and rent for 3 years and then buy but I suppose you already know that. So to be honest I would say if you can sell now and rent for a few years then yeah I would agree with that. Otherwise if not then I would sell now and get the next home.
SD Realtor
ParticipantBubble I agree with UTCSOX, not necessarly on the number but on a number. That is, when the rents cover the mortgage/hoa/property tax at say a 20% dp then I would expect the investors to start coming in.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI have heard a few advertisements on the radio about that in the past few weeks. I forgot which developer was doing that.
The question is, would they give you what you want for your home?
SD Realtor
ParticipantSchizo –
to answer your questions…
Asset bubbles and bursts are hugely influenced by the emotions of buyers and sellers?
Fundamentals get way out of balance first. Those that understand the fundamentals are first to exit. Emotion is what fuels the steep parts of both curves, (up and down)…
That this emotional factor is inherently difficult to assess?
Actually no I do not think the emotional factor is difficult to assess, I think it is painfully easy to assess.
Very few people successfully time major turns in asset cycles?
This is true. However not timing real estate valleys does not harm a homeowner who is buying for owner occupancy. If they are on either side of the valley by a year or so then I see no harm at all. The fallacy is trying to time the bottom.
Seeing beyond the emotion and focusing a variety of concrete factors is the only way of possibly divining when such turns in asset markets occur?
Yes looking beyond emotion is crucial.
A weakening dollar combined with a global economic expansion outside of the US means that foreign buyers in the neighborhoods I want to buy in (Scripps, CV, 4S, etc.) make dramatic drops there less certain?
I can say with 100% confidence that dramatic drops in these areas have no bearing on foreign buyers. Drops in these areas is substantially dependent on employment. A layoff at Qualcomm, many engineering firms, and biotech firms will have more impact on these neighborhoods then the value of the dollar.
How many foreign buyers have you assisted in those areas that 1) have the money (even more if their wealth was from non-US $ assets) and 2) largely ignore many of the finer economic points we banter about here and just buy because the like it, the schools are good, and their friends live there???
In fact none. Every buyer I have assisted in these areas have made their income and augmented their savings through gainful employment here in the United States.
Stabilizing inventory always occurs as a leading indicator before any RE cycle turn?
Yes but that may occur years before the bottom. I can honestly say that I have never ever seen pricing this far extended. It is WAY more extended then in the previous cycles. So if there is any indication of how this will play it, it is on the longer side of a depreciation cycle, not a shorter one. I think you are not considering cyclical inventory cycles as you seem to dismiss them with no thought at all.
What other indicators besides inventory are you considering? Do you think that is the only indicator you should follow? What other indicators to you point to us reaching the bottom of this cycle?
SD Realtor
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