Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
SD Realtor
ParticipantRayb thanks for that clarification. Isn’t there also a silent second that you can get with a CalHFA?
SD Realtor
ParticipantLostCat if it is a San Diego County listing that was listed in Sandicor many of us here can check for you if you put the address on the thread.
SD Realtor
ParticipantLostCat if it is a San Diego County listing that was listed in Sandicor many of us here can check for you if you put the address on the thread.
SD Realtor
ParticipantLostCat if it is a San Diego County listing that was listed in Sandicor many of us here can check for you if you put the address on the thread.
SD Realtor
ParticipantCMRJoe and 2008 sorry to hear about your situations. djrob thanks for posting what I told you, (I think you confused me with sdrealtor)…
So guys, (both of you) my standard advice is to put it on paper (or spread sheet) to let the numbers sink in. It is a pain in the butt to do and as Raybyrnes said it may very well be an exercise in futility, but it is something you should do. I hate to be an anal engineer type but I always am surprised at decisions people make without really studying the numbers…
Okay so let’s think about the rent scenario. You guys can very well rent these homes for awhile, yes it would be a long slow bleed. How much over several years? What sort of tax benefits would you see? Can you afford it given your current and proposed future income? If you run this out over several years is it realistic? Compare this to the sell now scenario… Which makes sense to you? Be realistic when you consider the sell now scenario with regards to what you will actually sell the home for. I know all this is a chore and you may not likely gleam anything new out of it… yet it may help you decide…
Now other alternatives… Like Porkman said, you can walk away… take the credit hit… keep your money and move on. There is nothing wrong with that. Life is not 100% based on your credit rating.
I am not advocating renting, or selling, or letting it foreclose, or selling it short… I am advocating investigate, list out and study all of your alternatives in detail. When you think about where the market will be in a few years… it is likely that the market will be in a worse spot then it is now. Yes we may get a little bump between now and then but it will not be a major big run up… it will not be pervasive and cover ALL property types. It will likely be a bump in certain housing types in certain areas…
Hang in there…get that spread sheet out…
SD Realtor
ps – I am not a loan guy but I do not think CFHA is assumable. As always I could be wrong.
ParticipantCMRJoe and 2008 sorry to hear about your situations. djrob thanks for posting what I told you, (I think you confused me with sdrealtor)…
So guys, (both of you) my standard advice is to put it on paper (or spread sheet) to let the numbers sink in. It is a pain in the butt to do and as Raybyrnes said it may very well be an exercise in futility, but it is something you should do. I hate to be an anal engineer type but I always am surprised at decisions people make without really studying the numbers…
Okay so let’s think about the rent scenario. You guys can very well rent these homes for awhile, yes it would be a long slow bleed. How much over several years? What sort of tax benefits would you see? Can you afford it given your current and proposed future income? If you run this out over several years is it realistic? Compare this to the sell now scenario… Which makes sense to you? Be realistic when you consider the sell now scenario with regards to what you will actually sell the home for. I know all this is a chore and you may not likely gleam anything new out of it… yet it may help you decide…
Now other alternatives… Like Porkman said, you can walk away… take the credit hit… keep your money and move on. There is nothing wrong with that. Life is not 100% based on your credit rating.
I am not advocating renting, or selling, or letting it foreclose, or selling it short… I am advocating investigate, list out and study all of your alternatives in detail. When you think about where the market will be in a few years… it is likely that the market will be in a worse spot then it is now. Yes we may get a little bump between now and then but it will not be a major big run up… it will not be pervasive and cover ALL property types. It will likely be a bump in certain housing types in certain areas…
Hang in there…get that spread sheet out…
SD Realtor
ps – I am not a loan guy but I do not think CFHA is assumable. As always I could be wrong.
ParticipantCMRJoe and 2008 sorry to hear about your situations. djrob thanks for posting what I told you, (I think you confused me with sdrealtor)…
So guys, (both of you) my standard advice is to put it on paper (or spread sheet) to let the numbers sink in. It is a pain in the butt to do and as Raybyrnes said it may very well be an exercise in futility, but it is something you should do. I hate to be an anal engineer type but I always am surprised at decisions people make without really studying the numbers…
Okay so let’s think about the rent scenario. You guys can very well rent these homes for awhile, yes it would be a long slow bleed. How much over several years? What sort of tax benefits would you see? Can you afford it given your current and proposed future income? If you run this out over several years is it realistic? Compare this to the sell now scenario… Which makes sense to you? Be realistic when you consider the sell now scenario with regards to what you will actually sell the home for. I know all this is a chore and you may not likely gleam anything new out of it… yet it may help you decide…
Now other alternatives… Like Porkman said, you can walk away… take the credit hit… keep your money and move on. There is nothing wrong with that. Life is not 100% based on your credit rating.
I am not advocating renting, or selling, or letting it foreclose, or selling it short… I am advocating investigate, list out and study all of your alternatives in detail. When you think about where the market will be in a few years… it is likely that the market will be in a worse spot then it is now. Yes we may get a little bump between now and then but it will not be a major big run up… it will not be pervasive and cover ALL property types. It will likely be a bump in certain housing types in certain areas…
Hang in there…get that spread sheet out…
SD Realtor
ps – I am not a loan guy but I do not think CFHA is assumable. As always I could be wrong.
ParticipantHi LostCat –
It is not a question of whether the market will go down, it is how far down will it go and how long will the cycle last. Basically you should advise your friend to take a few different looks at what scenarios may occur. One possible case scenario would be a 30-40% decline over the next 4 years. Then a slow recovery in the 3-4% per year growth rate. Alternative approaches may be a lesser decline of maybe 6% a year for a few years.
Nobody here can answer with any degree of accuracy the questions your friend is asking. However you can advise your friend to chart out a few different case scenarios over the next several years.
I would speculate (and it is only my opinion) that the market will go down, it will take a few years until it bottoms out, and then it will be a flat market for awhile, then it will appreciate slowly.
All results and speculations can be radically affected by interest rates, global events, how our economic policy will deal with the day of reckoning when we decide to really deal with the deficit and value of the dollar…. Unfortunately none of those factors will help the housing market.
I don’t mean to be to bearish but if your friend thinks hey I will stick it out another year or two and things will bottom out and get better quickly… then I think your friend is wrong. I will say there “may” be a small rally in the spring of 08 and maybe 09. So my advice would be, if your friend is risk averse, is to get out now. Otherwise make sure that stick it out means stick it out for several years, not just 2 or 3.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi LostCat –
It is not a question of whether the market will go down, it is how far down will it go and how long will the cycle last. Basically you should advise your friend to take a few different looks at what scenarios may occur. One possible case scenario would be a 30-40% decline over the next 4 years. Then a slow recovery in the 3-4% per year growth rate. Alternative approaches may be a lesser decline of maybe 6% a year for a few years.
Nobody here can answer with any degree of accuracy the questions your friend is asking. However you can advise your friend to chart out a few different case scenarios over the next several years.
I would speculate (and it is only my opinion) that the market will go down, it will take a few years until it bottoms out, and then it will be a flat market for awhile, then it will appreciate slowly.
All results and speculations can be radically affected by interest rates, global events, how our economic policy will deal with the day of reckoning when we decide to really deal with the deficit and value of the dollar…. Unfortunately none of those factors will help the housing market.
I don’t mean to be to bearish but if your friend thinks hey I will stick it out another year or two and things will bottom out and get better quickly… then I think your friend is wrong. I will say there “may” be a small rally in the spring of 08 and maybe 09. So my advice would be, if your friend is risk averse, is to get out now. Otherwise make sure that stick it out means stick it out for several years, not just 2 or 3.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi LostCat –
It is not a question of whether the market will go down, it is how far down will it go and how long will the cycle last. Basically you should advise your friend to take a few different looks at what scenarios may occur. One possible case scenario would be a 30-40% decline over the next 4 years. Then a slow recovery in the 3-4% per year growth rate. Alternative approaches may be a lesser decline of maybe 6% a year for a few years.
Nobody here can answer with any degree of accuracy the questions your friend is asking. However you can advise your friend to chart out a few different case scenarios over the next several years.
I would speculate (and it is only my opinion) that the market will go down, it will take a few years until it bottoms out, and then it will be a flat market for awhile, then it will appreciate slowly.
All results and speculations can be radically affected by interest rates, global events, how our economic policy will deal with the day of reckoning when we decide to really deal with the deficit and value of the dollar…. Unfortunately none of those factors will help the housing market.
I don’t mean to be to bearish but if your friend thinks hey I will stick it out another year or two and things will bottom out and get better quickly… then I think your friend is wrong. I will say there “may” be a small rally in the spring of 08 and maybe 09. So my advice would be, if your friend is risk averse, is to get out now. Otherwise make sure that stick it out means stick it out for several years, not just 2 or 3.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHang in there stocks –
You will get used to them the longer you live here. Nocal and Socal both share the same earthquake risk. I lived right near Sylmar during the big boy in 1971 I think it was and have been through many big and small since then. They are scary, especially when you are not used to them.
They definitely leave an impression on you.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHang in there stocks –
You will get used to them the longer you live here. Nocal and Socal both share the same earthquake risk. I lived right near Sylmar during the big boy in 1971 I think it was and have been through many big and small since then. They are scary, especially when you are not used to them.
They definitely leave an impression on you.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHang in there stocks –
You will get used to them the longer you live here. Nocal and Socal both share the same earthquake risk. I lived right near Sylmar during the big boy in 1971 I think it was and have been through many big and small since then. They are scary, especially when you are not used to them.
They definitely leave an impression on you.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Louise –
So here are the ones you already heard…
Carmel Valley – A very large area stretching from Highway 5 to the west to several miles to the east. It is within 15-30 minutes to La Jolla depending on where in Carmel Valley you live and where in La Jolla you work. The western portion of CV is older homes built in the 80s and 90s and new developments are in the eastern part of CV. Very good schools, lots of families, many professionals live there including tons of engineers, medical professionals, etc… Some of the older housing is not subject to Mello Roos fees. There are also many condos in CV as well. Lots to choose from. No gang activity that I know of. Not huge lots but a good housing stock. Most homes are out of the price range you are thinking but they are coming down. You will need patience.
4S Ranch – It is a stretch to say 4S is 30 minutes from La Jolla. It is located west of Rancho Bernardo off of I15 and consists of homes built from say the late 90s to this very day with new construction continuing. Good schools, good community, pricing is high but also coming down. Most every home out there will involve Mello Roos fees and possible HOA as well. No gang activity that I know of out there as well.
Scripps – I live here. It is about at the 30 minute commute limit. Distance wise it is not far but it is a pain because there is not a direct east west artery. Scripps is composed of two distinct regions, old and new scripps. Old Scripps has homes built in the 70s and they show it… however they are also on larger lots with wider easements so you do not feel crammed in like you do in newer communites such as those listed above. New Scripps has homes built in the 90s and up. The schools are SD unified unless you are in Stone Bridge but you would not be there due to price as they are Poway. The school ratings here are okay, no they do not stand up as strong to the schools in CV or 4S but they are still good. No real gang activity or dangerous streets here either.
University City is very close to La Jolla. UC borders La Jolla to the east and is composed of older housing stock, 60s and 70s mostly. No Mello Roos fees here as well. The easements between the homes are okay, not as large as scripps but larger then CV and 4S. UC is a very established community that is about as centrally located as anywhere in SD. The school system is SD unified and is okay. Not as strong as CV or 4S. Honestly I don’t know how it compares to Scripps. Not much gang activity that I know of here either.
Note both UC and Scripps border communities where there is some gang activity. Scripps border Mira Mesa and UC borders Clairemont. While these communities border these other ones I would not discount them.
Also while there is gang activity in say Mira Mesa I have lived there before and not had problems. I know some posters that live there to and one who grew up there. They speak very highly of it.
Back to communities….
Rancho Penasquitos, Sabre Springs – These two communities are also on the 30 minute or more commute path to La Jolla. They are more affordable then some of the others mentioned. Both are served by the Poway school district which is a great school district. RP to the northeast has some less desireable area. Sabre Springs does not. RP housing stock is older, built in the 70s and 80s. SS is much newer and built in the 90s and up. You may end up paying Mello Roos in SS. Both of these communities are quite family oriented and again, are more affordable then the others mentioned and there are homes available in both these communities at your current price levels.
There are other communities but I am growing tired. Baypark to the south of La Jolla, Encinitas to the north (about 30 minutes away from LJ) but there are traffic issues getting up there.
Anyways hope this is helpful for now.
SD Realtor
-
AuthorPosts
