[SD Realtor]

I could not agree more with Bugs. I have had a few transactions in Oceanside this year. Oceanside has already seen depreciation and will undergo another substantial leg down in the next two years. Double digits for each year is not impossible at all. Keep pushing the hold button. If you need proof for your wife just post a thread asking for one and we can put some comps up here that show the declines. It is going to be a real tough time up there.

This is just a personal preference but I like Ivey Glenn a tad better then Rancho Del Oro however I think Bugs was lumping all of the Rancho Del Oro neighborhoods together that as a whole, that area is preferable to the backgate area which I would 100% agree with.

[SD Realtor]

I could not agree more with Bugs. I have had a few transactions in Oceanside this year. Oceanside has already seen depreciation and will undergo another substantial leg down in the next two years. Double digits for each year is not impossible at all. Keep pushing the hold button. If you need proof for your wife just post a thread asking for one and we can put some comps up here that show the declines. It is going to be a real tough time up there.

This is just a personal preference but I like Ivey Glenn a tad better then Rancho Del Oro however I think Bugs was lumping all of the Rancho Del Oro neighborhoods together that as a whole, that area is preferable to the backgate area which I would 100% agree with.

[SD Realtor]

I could not agree more with Bugs. I have had a few transactions in Oceanside this year. Oceanside has already seen depreciation and will undergo another substantial leg down in the next two years. Double digits for each year is not impossible at all. Keep pushing the hold button. If you need proof for your wife just post a thread asking for one and we can put some comps up here that show the declines. It is going to be a real tough time up there.

This is just a personal preference but I like Ivey Glenn a tad better then Rancho Del Oro however I think Bugs was lumping all of the Rancho Del Oro neighborhoods together that as a whole, that area is preferable to the backgate area which I would 100% agree with.

[SD Realtor]

I could not agree more with Bugs. I have had a few transactions in Oceanside this year. Oceanside has already seen depreciation and will undergo another substantial leg down in the next two years. Double digits for each year is not impossible at all. Keep pushing the hold button. If you need proof for your wife just post a thread asking for one and we can put some comps up here that show the declines. It is going to be a real tough time up there.

This is just a personal preference but I like Ivey Glenn a tad better then Rancho Del Oro however I think Bugs was lumping all of the Rancho Del Oro neighborhoods together that as a whole, that area is preferable to the backgate area which I would 100% agree with.

[SD Realtor]

I could not agree more with Bugs. I have had a few transactions in Oceanside this year. Oceanside has already seen depreciation and will undergo another substantial leg down in the next two years. Double digits for each year is not impossible at all. Keep pushing the hold button. If you need proof for your wife just post a thread asking for one and we can put some comps up here that show the declines. It is going to be a real tough time up there.

This is just a personal preference but I like Ivey Glenn a tad better then Rancho Del Oro however I think Bugs was lumping all of the Rancho Del Oro neighborhoods together that as a whole, that area is preferable to the backgate area which I would 100% agree with.

[SD Realtor]

PW I understand what you are saying. For most people, if you go into any deeper analysis then what is beyond a headline and they glaze over pretty quickly. I guess my point is that the headlines don’t mean anything, ya know what I am saying? Headlines like this are major generalizations that do exactly what you said, they grab attention. So yes I guess you are correct, for a quick reference headlines like this are useful. However if your local submarket does not correlate then it may be somewhat confusing.

However I would argue that if anyone uses a temporal reference as a decision to purchase then I would argue that is a bad decision. There are much better indicators to use to decide when to buy.

Realtor

[SD Realtor]

PW I understand what you are saying. For most people, if you go into any deeper analysis then what is beyond a headline and they glaze over pretty quickly. I guess my point is that the headlines don’t mean anything, ya know what I am saying? Headlines like this are major generalizations that do exactly what you said, they grab attention. So yes I guess you are correct, for a quick reference headlines like this are useful. However if your local submarket does not correlate then it may be somewhat confusing.

However I would argue that if anyone uses a temporal reference as a decision to purchase then I would argue that is a bad decision. There are much better indicators to use to decide when to buy.

Realtor

[SD Realtor]

PW I understand what you are saying. For most people, if you go into any deeper analysis then what is beyond a headline and they glaze over pretty quickly. I guess my point is that the headlines don’t mean anything, ya know what I am saying? Headlines like this are major generalizations that do exactly what you said, they grab attention. So yes I guess you are correct, for a quick reference headlines like this are useful. However if your local submarket does not correlate then it may be somewhat confusing.

However I would argue that if anyone uses a temporal reference as a decision to purchase then I would argue that is a bad decision. There are much better indicators to use to decide when to buy.

Realtor

[SD Realtor]

PW I understand what you are saying. For most people, if you go into any deeper analysis then what is beyond a headline and they glaze over pretty quickly. I guess my point is that the headlines don’t mean anything, ya know what I am saying? Headlines like this are major generalizations that do exactly what you said, they grab attention. So yes I guess you are correct, for a quick reference headlines like this are useful. However if your local submarket does not correlate then it may be somewhat confusing.

However I would argue that if anyone uses a temporal reference as a decision to purchase then I would argue that is a bad decision. There are much better indicators to use to decide when to buy.

Realtor

[SD Realtor]

PW I understand what you are saying. For most people, if you go into any deeper analysis then what is beyond a headline and they glaze over pretty quickly. I guess my point is that the headlines don’t mean anything, ya know what I am saying? Headlines like this are major generalizations that do exactly what you said, they grab attention. So yes I guess you are correct, for a quick reference headlines like this are useful. However if your local submarket does not correlate then it may be somewhat confusing.

However I would argue that if anyone uses a temporal reference as a decision to purchase then I would argue that is a bad decision. There are much better indicators to use to decide when to buy.

Realtor

[SD Realtor]

It is a tough dilema, believe me I understand and quite frankly am in the same boat. I don’t like renting at all.

Conversely the rent verses own calculations may or may not be able to prove one way is fiscally better then the other. I understand that as well. You bring up other points that while a bit more subtle may indeed help bolster an argument about buying. That is, the interest rate climate, the strength of the dollar, inflation, etc… The million dollar question is, will the overall depreciation of the housing market be enough to compensate for all of these likely events. Unfortunately, not only do I not know the answer, but the answer will vary for each individual. I think it is very safe to say that sometime in the future, those who have saved up alot of money may have the ability to do very well. Of course the other question is, if after you run numbers of various scenarios of depreciation and interest rate hikes, and the savings are somewhat nominal, is that time renting verses not living in your own home worth the wait?

I believe it is hard to add a valuation to the lifestyle variable. Others do not.

I think you need to sit down with your Realtor, develop a spreadsheet, look at depreciation scenarios, look at interest rate hikes, look at how this will affect your taxes, and you can at least get some sort of guesstimates of how things “may” turn out a few years down the line.

As a side note I always hear people really stress about the write off… but then I never see them actually run a tax calculation to get a very exact amount of how much they do lose in tax money. Nor do I see how much they save by not paying other costs associated with owning a home. I am not saying one outweighs the other, I am saying it is alot of work to actually find the REAL EXACT numbers.

My earlier post about depreciation is not aimed to hammer on San Marcos. San Marcos is a nice place. However, IMO it fits the profile of a community that has had ALOT of development in the past 10 years, and is a fair commute to places like Sorrento Valley and other areas of high salaried jobs. Now, I am NOT saying San Marcos is like another Eastlake waiting to happen… I am saying that I think it and communities like it are kind of the next domino to fall hard as we move up the food chain in the depreciation cycle.

Now if you are buying for the long run… not a year or 5 years, but for the long run… AND you can be content and not stress out while the market does its thing… then you should follow your instincts… lifestyle? or dollars and cents?

I know it is a tough call…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

It is a tough dilema, believe me I understand and quite frankly am in the same boat. I don’t like renting at all.

Conversely the rent verses own calculations may or may not be able to prove one way is fiscally better then the other. I understand that as well. You bring up other points that while a bit more subtle may indeed help bolster an argument about buying. That is, the interest rate climate, the strength of the dollar, inflation, etc… The million dollar question is, will the overall depreciation of the housing market be enough to compensate for all of these likely events. Unfortunately, not only do I not know the answer, but the answer will vary for each individual. I think it is very safe to say that sometime in the future, those who have saved up alot of money may have the ability to do very well. Of course the other question is, if after you run numbers of various scenarios of depreciation and interest rate hikes, and the savings are somewhat nominal, is that time renting verses not living in your own home worth the wait?

I believe it is hard to add a valuation to the lifestyle variable. Others do not.

I think you need to sit down with your Realtor, develop a spreadsheet, look at depreciation scenarios, look at interest rate hikes, look at how this will affect your taxes, and you can at least get some sort of guesstimates of how things “may” turn out a few years down the line.

As a side note I always hear people really stress about the write off… but then I never see them actually run a tax calculation to get a very exact amount of how much they do lose in tax money. Nor do I see how much they save by not paying other costs associated with owning a home. I am not saying one outweighs the other, I am saying it is alot of work to actually find the REAL EXACT numbers.

My earlier post about depreciation is not aimed to hammer on San Marcos. San Marcos is a nice place. However, IMO it fits the profile of a community that has had ALOT of development in the past 10 years, and is a fair commute to places like Sorrento Valley and other areas of high salaried jobs. Now, I am NOT saying San Marcos is like another Eastlake waiting to happen… I am saying that I think it and communities like it are kind of the next domino to fall hard as we move up the food chain in the depreciation cycle.

Now if you are buying for the long run… not a year or 5 years, but for the long run… AND you can be content and not stress out while the market does its thing… then you should follow your instincts… lifestyle? or dollars and cents?

I know it is a tough call…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

It is a tough dilema, believe me I understand and quite frankly am in the same boat. I don’t like renting at all.

Conversely the rent verses own calculations may or may not be able to prove one way is fiscally better then the other. I understand that as well. You bring up other points that while a bit more subtle may indeed help bolster an argument about buying. That is, the interest rate climate, the strength of the dollar, inflation, etc… The million dollar question is, will the overall depreciation of the housing market be enough to compensate for all of these likely events. Unfortunately, not only do I not know the answer, but the answer will vary for each individual. I think it is very safe to say that sometime in the future, those who have saved up alot of money may have the ability to do very well. Of course the other question is, if after you run numbers of various scenarios of depreciation and interest rate hikes, and the savings are somewhat nominal, is that time renting verses not living in your own home worth the wait?

I believe it is hard to add a valuation to the lifestyle variable. Others do not.

I think you need to sit down with your Realtor, develop a spreadsheet, look at depreciation scenarios, look at interest rate hikes, look at how this will affect your taxes, and you can at least get some sort of guesstimates of how things “may” turn out a few years down the line.

As a side note I always hear people really stress about the write off… but then I never see them actually run a tax calculation to get a very exact amount of how much they do lose in tax money. Nor do I see how much they save by not paying other costs associated with owning a home. I am not saying one outweighs the other, I am saying it is alot of work to actually find the REAL EXACT numbers.

My earlier post about depreciation is not aimed to hammer on San Marcos. San Marcos is a nice place. However, IMO it fits the profile of a community that has had ALOT of development in the past 10 years, and is a fair commute to places like Sorrento Valley and other areas of high salaried jobs. Now, I am NOT saying San Marcos is like another Eastlake waiting to happen… I am saying that I think it and communities like it are kind of the next domino to fall hard as we move up the food chain in the depreciation cycle.

Now if you are buying for the long run… not a year or 5 years, but for the long run… AND you can be content and not stress out while the market does its thing… then you should follow your instincts… lifestyle? or dollars and cents?

I know it is a tough call…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

It is a tough dilema, believe me I understand and quite frankly am in the same boat. I don’t like renting at all.

Conversely the rent verses own calculations may or may not be able to prove one way is fiscally better then the other. I understand that as well. You bring up other points that while a bit more subtle may indeed help bolster an argument about buying. That is, the interest rate climate, the strength of the dollar, inflation, etc… The million dollar question is, will the overall depreciation of the housing market be enough to compensate for all of these likely events. Unfortunately, not only do I not know the answer, but the answer will vary for each individual. I think it is very safe to say that sometime in the future, those who have saved up alot of money may have the ability to do very well. Of course the other question is, if after you run numbers of various scenarios of depreciation and interest rate hikes, and the savings are somewhat nominal, is that time renting verses not living in your own home worth the wait?

I believe it is hard to add a valuation to the lifestyle variable. Others do not.

I think you need to sit down with your Realtor, develop a spreadsheet, look at depreciation scenarios, look at interest rate hikes, look at how this will affect your taxes, and you can at least get some sort of guesstimates of how things “may” turn out a few years down the line.

As a side note I always hear people really stress about the write off… but then I never see them actually run a tax calculation to get a very exact amount of how much they do lose in tax money. Nor do I see how much they save by not paying other costs associated with owning a home. I am not saying one outweighs the other, I am saying it is alot of work to actually find the REAL EXACT numbers.

My earlier post about depreciation is not aimed to hammer on San Marcos. San Marcos is a nice place. However, IMO it fits the profile of a community that has had ALOT of development in the past 10 years, and is a fair commute to places like Sorrento Valley and other areas of high salaried jobs. Now, I am NOT saying San Marcos is like another Eastlake waiting to happen… I am saying that I think it and communities like it are kind of the next domino to fall hard as we move up the food chain in the depreciation cycle.

Now if you are buying for the long run… not a year or 5 years, but for the long run… AND you can be content and not stress out while the market does its thing… then you should follow your instincts… lifestyle? or dollars and cents?

I know it is a tough call…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

It is a tough dilema, believe me I understand and quite frankly am in the same boat. I don’t like renting at all.

Conversely the rent verses own calculations may or may not be able to prove one way is fiscally better then the other. I understand that as well. You bring up other points that while a bit more subtle may indeed help bolster an argument about buying. That is, the interest rate climate, the strength of the dollar, inflation, etc… The million dollar question is, will the overall depreciation of the housing market be enough to compensate for all of these likely events. Unfortunately, not only do I not know the answer, but the answer will vary for each individual. I think it is very safe to say that sometime in the future, those who have saved up alot of money may have the ability to do very well. Of course the other question is, if after you run numbers of various scenarios of depreciation and interest rate hikes, and the savings are somewhat nominal, is that time renting verses not living in your own home worth the wait?

I believe it is hard to add a valuation to the lifestyle variable. Others do not.

I think you need to sit down with your Realtor, develop a spreadsheet, look at depreciation scenarios, look at interest rate hikes, look at how this will affect your taxes, and you can at least get some sort of guesstimates of how things “may” turn out a few years down the line.

As a side note I always hear people really stress about the write off… but then I never see them actually run a tax calculation to get a very exact amount of how much they do lose in tax money. Nor do I see how much they save by not paying other costs associated with owning a home. I am not saying one outweighs the other, I am saying it is alot of work to actually find the REAL EXACT numbers.

My earlier post about depreciation is not aimed to hammer on San Marcos. San Marcos is a nice place. However, IMO it fits the profile of a community that has had ALOT of development in the past 10 years, and is a fair commute to places like Sorrento Valley and other areas of high salaried jobs. Now, I am NOT saying San Marcos is like another Eastlake waiting to happen… I am saying that I think it and communities like it are kind of the next domino to fall hard as we move up the food chain in the depreciation cycle.

Now if you are buying for the long run… not a year or 5 years, but for the long run… AND you can be content and not stress out while the market does its thing… then you should follow your instincts… lifestyle? or dollars and cents?

I know it is a tough call…

SD Realtor

[Author]

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