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SD Realtor
ParticipantWaiting for Bottom and Jumbo –
The mortgage rates are following the 10 year treasury and we are at or near 2 year lows on that index. Why? I have no idea especially with the weakness of the dollar.
I would agree that waiting for the prices to drop is most likely the prudent move. It is not if they drop, it is when they drop, how far will they drop, and most important of all, what will interest rates be.
Wtb, Do I think Mariners Point in Carlsbad will be at 650-700k in the Spring or Summer? No I do not. Do I think that it could be that pricing in 09? Perhaps. Does anyone gaurantee todays rates at that time? Nope. Will the dollar be of more or of less value at that time? Who knows.
Jumbo same argument for Carmel Valley.
To question what pricing will do is not hard anymore. We all do agree it will drop and we all agree we have a long ways to go. The wild card though is the interest rate climate. I have a strange feeling that things may stagger a bit…to explain further, I think given an interest rate climate that is static, the price drops will be measured, sticky and move slowly, but they will move over time. However, if rates jump then I think pricing will not respond accordingly… it will not react to rate hikes immediately and things will glut up… then pricing will react in a more heavy handed and uneven manner. However this will take time. I probably am not expressing myself well…
The bottom line is that pricing will be better in 08 then 07 but I don’t think we will see huge gashes of 20% or anything like that in highly desired areas. I also think spring of 08 pricing will bump a little then fall off stronger in the summer and fall…
SD Realtor
ParticipantWaiting for Bottom and Jumbo –
The mortgage rates are following the 10 year treasury and we are at or near 2 year lows on that index. Why? I have no idea especially with the weakness of the dollar.
I would agree that waiting for the prices to drop is most likely the prudent move. It is not if they drop, it is when they drop, how far will they drop, and most important of all, what will interest rates be.
Wtb, Do I think Mariners Point in Carlsbad will be at 650-700k in the Spring or Summer? No I do not. Do I think that it could be that pricing in 09? Perhaps. Does anyone gaurantee todays rates at that time? Nope. Will the dollar be of more or of less value at that time? Who knows.
Jumbo same argument for Carmel Valley.
To question what pricing will do is not hard anymore. We all do agree it will drop and we all agree we have a long ways to go. The wild card though is the interest rate climate. I have a strange feeling that things may stagger a bit…to explain further, I think given an interest rate climate that is static, the price drops will be measured, sticky and move slowly, but they will move over time. However, if rates jump then I think pricing will not respond accordingly… it will not react to rate hikes immediately and things will glut up… then pricing will react in a more heavy handed and uneven manner. However this will take time. I probably am not expressing myself well…
The bottom line is that pricing will be better in 08 then 07 but I don’t think we will see huge gashes of 20% or anything like that in highly desired areas. I also think spring of 08 pricing will bump a little then fall off stronger in the summer and fall…
SD Realtor
ParticipantWaiting for Bottom and Jumbo –
The mortgage rates are following the 10 year treasury and we are at or near 2 year lows on that index. Why? I have no idea especially with the weakness of the dollar.
I would agree that waiting for the prices to drop is most likely the prudent move. It is not if they drop, it is when they drop, how far will they drop, and most important of all, what will interest rates be.
Wtb, Do I think Mariners Point in Carlsbad will be at 650-700k in the Spring or Summer? No I do not. Do I think that it could be that pricing in 09? Perhaps. Does anyone gaurantee todays rates at that time? Nope. Will the dollar be of more or of less value at that time? Who knows.
Jumbo same argument for Carmel Valley.
To question what pricing will do is not hard anymore. We all do agree it will drop and we all agree we have a long ways to go. The wild card though is the interest rate climate. I have a strange feeling that things may stagger a bit…to explain further, I think given an interest rate climate that is static, the price drops will be measured, sticky and move slowly, but they will move over time. However, if rates jump then I think pricing will not respond accordingly… it will not react to rate hikes immediately and things will glut up… then pricing will react in a more heavy handed and uneven manner. However this will take time. I probably am not expressing myself well…
The bottom line is that pricing will be better in 08 then 07 but I don’t think we will see huge gashes of 20% or anything like that in highly desired areas. I also think spring of 08 pricing will bump a little then fall off stronger in the summer and fall…
SD Realtor
ParticipantWaiting for Bottom and Jumbo –
The mortgage rates are following the 10 year treasury and we are at or near 2 year lows on that index. Why? I have no idea especially with the weakness of the dollar.
I would agree that waiting for the prices to drop is most likely the prudent move. It is not if they drop, it is when they drop, how far will they drop, and most important of all, what will interest rates be.
Wtb, Do I think Mariners Point in Carlsbad will be at 650-700k in the Spring or Summer? No I do not. Do I think that it could be that pricing in 09? Perhaps. Does anyone gaurantee todays rates at that time? Nope. Will the dollar be of more or of less value at that time? Who knows.
Jumbo same argument for Carmel Valley.
To question what pricing will do is not hard anymore. We all do agree it will drop and we all agree we have a long ways to go. The wild card though is the interest rate climate. I have a strange feeling that things may stagger a bit…to explain further, I think given an interest rate climate that is static, the price drops will be measured, sticky and move slowly, but they will move over time. However, if rates jump then I think pricing will not respond accordingly… it will not react to rate hikes immediately and things will glut up… then pricing will react in a more heavy handed and uneven manner. However this will take time. I probably am not expressing myself well…
The bottom line is that pricing will be better in 08 then 07 but I don’t think we will see huge gashes of 20% or anything like that in highly desired areas. I also think spring of 08 pricing will bump a little then fall off stronger in the summer and fall…
SD Realtor
ParticipantJimmy the Caminito Arcada homes (in fact all of Aspire) are really not what you would consider to be the classic detached homes. They are packed in super super tight and they are actually condo ownership, not fee simple ownership. They are this ugly salmon pink color, they all are like little pink shoe boxes with no yard and very tiny tiny lots. They have HOA and Mello Roos, and they present no real value to the owner other then not sharing walls. Geographically they are nudged into the top of where Spring Canyon meets up with Pomerado…. I could not urge anyone strongly enough to stay away from these homes as we have already seen them crash through the 400k price range.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJimmy the Caminito Arcada homes (in fact all of Aspire) are really not what you would consider to be the classic detached homes. They are packed in super super tight and they are actually condo ownership, not fee simple ownership. They are this ugly salmon pink color, they all are like little pink shoe boxes with no yard and very tiny tiny lots. They have HOA and Mello Roos, and they present no real value to the owner other then not sharing walls. Geographically they are nudged into the top of where Spring Canyon meets up with Pomerado…. I could not urge anyone strongly enough to stay away from these homes as we have already seen them crash through the 400k price range.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJimmy the Caminito Arcada homes (in fact all of Aspire) are really not what you would consider to be the classic detached homes. They are packed in super super tight and they are actually condo ownership, not fee simple ownership. They are this ugly salmon pink color, they all are like little pink shoe boxes with no yard and very tiny tiny lots. They have HOA and Mello Roos, and they present no real value to the owner other then not sharing walls. Geographically they are nudged into the top of where Spring Canyon meets up with Pomerado…. I could not urge anyone strongly enough to stay away from these homes as we have already seen them crash through the 400k price range.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJimmy the Caminito Arcada homes (in fact all of Aspire) are really not what you would consider to be the classic detached homes. They are packed in super super tight and they are actually condo ownership, not fee simple ownership. They are this ugly salmon pink color, they all are like little pink shoe boxes with no yard and very tiny tiny lots. They have HOA and Mello Roos, and they present no real value to the owner other then not sharing walls. Geographically they are nudged into the top of where Spring Canyon meets up with Pomerado…. I could not urge anyone strongly enough to stay away from these homes as we have already seen them crash through the 400k price range.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJimmy the Caminito Arcada homes (in fact all of Aspire) are really not what you would consider to be the classic detached homes. They are packed in super super tight and they are actually condo ownership, not fee simple ownership. They are this ugly salmon pink color, they all are like little pink shoe boxes with no yard and very tiny tiny lots. They have HOA and Mello Roos, and they present no real value to the owner other then not sharing walls. Geographically they are nudged into the top of where Spring Canyon meets up with Pomerado…. I could not urge anyone strongly enough to stay away from these homes as we have already seen them crash through the 400k price range.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Andymajumder –
Okay I can say with 100% honesty that I know scripps very well as I live there. Triana (the subdivision you have posted about) has seen definite price reductions but it will continue to depreciate. I understand your point about the fact that with what you have to put down and what you would pay to rent for, that for this price you would be close to a break even point of buy verses rent. However I would ask you to consider the counterpoint of holding off. If you continue to accumulate more cash in your savings, even if it is interest accrued, and prices drop say another 7%, then the balance becomes even greater for you.
Now lets take a look at Triana in more detail. For the floorplan you have selected, I see a sale of 490k, 492k and 492.5k back in 2005. I also see that the last sale of a condo of this floorplan on Spruce Run was 11885 Spruce Run for 449k back in May.
Now I wonder how those homeowners who spent 450k in May feel now that they see a home that is listed for 60k less just 6 months removed! That is over 10% in 6 months. Now I will say those homeowners were kind of boneheaded because the realtor they had most likely did not show them that there was another sale at 11809 Spruce Run in January of 07 for 415k. That is life I guess when you do not work with a good realtor.
Okay finally let’s look at this property itself. It is competing against 2 others on Spruce Run of the same flooplan. HOA in Triana are 120 and tack on another 73 for Mello Roos. Previous seller paid 478 back in 04. Wamu took it for 423 in June of 07. It just hit the market a few days ago and yes, compared to the competition is priced aggressively. Will it sell at that price? More then likely it will. I guess we will see. You could try to throw a lowball at it just for kicks.
My point here is to just give you the facts.
Now on the speculative side I think there is a high probability of more foreclosures in this complex and that prices will continue to drop in there. By how much and how fast? I am not sure.
Sorry if I am not giving you a definitive answer. I just want to give you more information. Personally I would try to hold out and wait if you can. Even if it is just for another year. Think of it like this… The probability of prices being lower next year are very high. The probability of prices being higher next year are very low.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Andymajumder –
Okay I can say with 100% honesty that I know scripps very well as I live there. Triana (the subdivision you have posted about) has seen definite price reductions but it will continue to depreciate. I understand your point about the fact that with what you have to put down and what you would pay to rent for, that for this price you would be close to a break even point of buy verses rent. However I would ask you to consider the counterpoint of holding off. If you continue to accumulate more cash in your savings, even if it is interest accrued, and prices drop say another 7%, then the balance becomes even greater for you.
Now lets take a look at Triana in more detail. For the floorplan you have selected, I see a sale of 490k, 492k and 492.5k back in 2005. I also see that the last sale of a condo of this floorplan on Spruce Run was 11885 Spruce Run for 449k back in May.
Now I wonder how those homeowners who spent 450k in May feel now that they see a home that is listed for 60k less just 6 months removed! That is over 10% in 6 months. Now I will say those homeowners were kind of boneheaded because the realtor they had most likely did not show them that there was another sale at 11809 Spruce Run in January of 07 for 415k. That is life I guess when you do not work with a good realtor.
Okay finally let’s look at this property itself. It is competing against 2 others on Spruce Run of the same flooplan. HOA in Triana are 120 and tack on another 73 for Mello Roos. Previous seller paid 478 back in 04. Wamu took it for 423 in June of 07. It just hit the market a few days ago and yes, compared to the competition is priced aggressively. Will it sell at that price? More then likely it will. I guess we will see. You could try to throw a lowball at it just for kicks.
My point here is to just give you the facts.
Now on the speculative side I think there is a high probability of more foreclosures in this complex and that prices will continue to drop in there. By how much and how fast? I am not sure.
Sorry if I am not giving you a definitive answer. I just want to give you more information. Personally I would try to hold out and wait if you can. Even if it is just for another year. Think of it like this… The probability of prices being lower next year are very high. The probability of prices being higher next year are very low.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Andymajumder –
Okay I can say with 100% honesty that I know scripps very well as I live there. Triana (the subdivision you have posted about) has seen definite price reductions but it will continue to depreciate. I understand your point about the fact that with what you have to put down and what you would pay to rent for, that for this price you would be close to a break even point of buy verses rent. However I would ask you to consider the counterpoint of holding off. If you continue to accumulate more cash in your savings, even if it is interest accrued, and prices drop say another 7%, then the balance becomes even greater for you.
Now lets take a look at Triana in more detail. For the floorplan you have selected, I see a sale of 490k, 492k and 492.5k back in 2005. I also see that the last sale of a condo of this floorplan on Spruce Run was 11885 Spruce Run for 449k back in May.
Now I wonder how those homeowners who spent 450k in May feel now that they see a home that is listed for 60k less just 6 months removed! That is over 10% in 6 months. Now I will say those homeowners were kind of boneheaded because the realtor they had most likely did not show them that there was another sale at 11809 Spruce Run in January of 07 for 415k. That is life I guess when you do not work with a good realtor.
Okay finally let’s look at this property itself. It is competing against 2 others on Spruce Run of the same flooplan. HOA in Triana are 120 and tack on another 73 for Mello Roos. Previous seller paid 478 back in 04. Wamu took it for 423 in June of 07. It just hit the market a few days ago and yes, compared to the competition is priced aggressively. Will it sell at that price? More then likely it will. I guess we will see. You could try to throw a lowball at it just for kicks.
My point here is to just give you the facts.
Now on the speculative side I think there is a high probability of more foreclosures in this complex and that prices will continue to drop in there. By how much and how fast? I am not sure.
Sorry if I am not giving you a definitive answer. I just want to give you more information. Personally I would try to hold out and wait if you can. Even if it is just for another year. Think of it like this… The probability of prices being lower next year are very high. The probability of prices being higher next year are very low.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Andymajumder –
Okay I can say with 100% honesty that I know scripps very well as I live there. Triana (the subdivision you have posted about) has seen definite price reductions but it will continue to depreciate. I understand your point about the fact that with what you have to put down and what you would pay to rent for, that for this price you would be close to a break even point of buy verses rent. However I would ask you to consider the counterpoint of holding off. If you continue to accumulate more cash in your savings, even if it is interest accrued, and prices drop say another 7%, then the balance becomes even greater for you.
Now lets take a look at Triana in more detail. For the floorplan you have selected, I see a sale of 490k, 492k and 492.5k back in 2005. I also see that the last sale of a condo of this floorplan on Spruce Run was 11885 Spruce Run for 449k back in May.
Now I wonder how those homeowners who spent 450k in May feel now that they see a home that is listed for 60k less just 6 months removed! That is over 10% in 6 months. Now I will say those homeowners were kind of boneheaded because the realtor they had most likely did not show them that there was another sale at 11809 Spruce Run in January of 07 for 415k. That is life I guess when you do not work with a good realtor.
Okay finally let’s look at this property itself. It is competing against 2 others on Spruce Run of the same flooplan. HOA in Triana are 120 and tack on another 73 for Mello Roos. Previous seller paid 478 back in 04. Wamu took it for 423 in June of 07. It just hit the market a few days ago and yes, compared to the competition is priced aggressively. Will it sell at that price? More then likely it will. I guess we will see. You could try to throw a lowball at it just for kicks.
My point here is to just give you the facts.
Now on the speculative side I think there is a high probability of more foreclosures in this complex and that prices will continue to drop in there. By how much and how fast? I am not sure.
Sorry if I am not giving you a definitive answer. I just want to give you more information. Personally I would try to hold out and wait if you can. Even if it is just for another year. Think of it like this… The probability of prices being lower next year are very high. The probability of prices being higher next year are very low.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Andymajumder –
Okay I can say with 100% honesty that I know scripps very well as I live there. Triana (the subdivision you have posted about) has seen definite price reductions but it will continue to depreciate. I understand your point about the fact that with what you have to put down and what you would pay to rent for, that for this price you would be close to a break even point of buy verses rent. However I would ask you to consider the counterpoint of holding off. If you continue to accumulate more cash in your savings, even if it is interest accrued, and prices drop say another 7%, then the balance becomes even greater for you.
Now lets take a look at Triana in more detail. For the floorplan you have selected, I see a sale of 490k, 492k and 492.5k back in 2005. I also see that the last sale of a condo of this floorplan on Spruce Run was 11885 Spruce Run for 449k back in May.
Now I wonder how those homeowners who spent 450k in May feel now that they see a home that is listed for 60k less just 6 months removed! That is over 10% in 6 months. Now I will say those homeowners were kind of boneheaded because the realtor they had most likely did not show them that there was another sale at 11809 Spruce Run in January of 07 for 415k. That is life I guess when you do not work with a good realtor.
Okay finally let’s look at this property itself. It is competing against 2 others on Spruce Run of the same flooplan. HOA in Triana are 120 and tack on another 73 for Mello Roos. Previous seller paid 478 back in 04. Wamu took it for 423 in June of 07. It just hit the market a few days ago and yes, compared to the competition is priced aggressively. Will it sell at that price? More then likely it will. I guess we will see. You could try to throw a lowball at it just for kicks.
My point here is to just give you the facts.
Now on the speculative side I think there is a high probability of more foreclosures in this complex and that prices will continue to drop in there. By how much and how fast? I am not sure.
Sorry if I am not giving you a definitive answer. I just want to give you more information. Personally I would try to hold out and wait if you can. Even if it is just for another year. Think of it like this… The probability of prices being lower next year are very high. The probability of prices being higher next year are very low.
SD Realtor
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