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SD Realtor
ParticipantYeah to me this falls into one of those be careful what you wish for messages…
I posted recently on that theme, be careful what you wish for and the feedback to me was that everyone was pretty happy with “a much needed adjustment”. There were a few “I will be okay” posts and the “I am positioned well” thoughts. There were also a couple “bring it ons”, and of course there was one or two, “I am okay with x% unemployment.” I guess I am okay with those rather minor events. Hey I have a job, (actually two of them) I have a few hundred k in cds and such, have all my ducks lined up right? I have my rental properties and I currently rent so I am good. What do I have to worry about right?
However when very intelligent people start posing more anarchistic scenarios, frankly it scares the crap out of me. Thinking that everything can go to crap around me and I will be just fine is foolhearty… Yeah like I will just walk to my banks and withdraw all my cash because I outsmarted everyone.
This article points out that isn’t how it works if the worst case does happen. I think some of those that are hoping for a downturn, (like myself) are doing so with a hell of alot more trepidation then bravado.
I REALLY REALLY hope this guy is wrong.
SD Realtor
ParticipantYeah to me this falls into one of those be careful what you wish for messages…
I posted recently on that theme, be careful what you wish for and the feedback to me was that everyone was pretty happy with “a much needed adjustment”. There were a few “I will be okay” posts and the “I am positioned well” thoughts. There were also a couple “bring it ons”, and of course there was one or two, “I am okay with x% unemployment.” I guess I am okay with those rather minor events. Hey I have a job, (actually two of them) I have a few hundred k in cds and such, have all my ducks lined up right? I have my rental properties and I currently rent so I am good. What do I have to worry about right?
However when very intelligent people start posing more anarchistic scenarios, frankly it scares the crap out of me. Thinking that everything can go to crap around me and I will be just fine is foolhearty… Yeah like I will just walk to my banks and withdraw all my cash because I outsmarted everyone.
This article points out that isn’t how it works if the worst case does happen. I think some of those that are hoping for a downturn, (like myself) are doing so with a hell of alot more trepidation then bravado.
I REALLY REALLY hope this guy is wrong.
SD Realtor
ParticipantYeah to me this falls into one of those be careful what you wish for messages…
I posted recently on that theme, be careful what you wish for and the feedback to me was that everyone was pretty happy with “a much needed adjustment”. There were a few “I will be okay” posts and the “I am positioned well” thoughts. There were also a couple “bring it ons”, and of course there was one or two, “I am okay with x% unemployment.” I guess I am okay with those rather minor events. Hey I have a job, (actually two of them) I have a few hundred k in cds and such, have all my ducks lined up right? I have my rental properties and I currently rent so I am good. What do I have to worry about right?
However when very intelligent people start posing more anarchistic scenarios, frankly it scares the crap out of me. Thinking that everything can go to crap around me and I will be just fine is foolhearty… Yeah like I will just walk to my banks and withdraw all my cash because I outsmarted everyone.
This article points out that isn’t how it works if the worst case does happen. I think some of those that are hoping for a downturn, (like myself) are doing so with a hell of alot more trepidation then bravado.
I REALLY REALLY hope this guy is wrong.
SD Realtor
ParticipantNo report on the tax roll yet as of today. I called the listing agents office but nobody answered. I will check on it tomorrow for ya. I would bet they got at least a lowball offer into the lender and the lender went and pushed the sale out.
SD Realtor
ParticipantNo report on the tax roll yet as of today. I called the listing agents office but nobody answered. I will check on it tomorrow for ya. I would bet they got at least a lowball offer into the lender and the lender went and pushed the sale out.
SD Realtor
ParticipantNo report on the tax roll yet as of today. I called the listing agents office but nobody answered. I will check on it tomorrow for ya. I would bet they got at least a lowball offer into the lender and the lender went and pushed the sale out.
SD Realtor
ParticipantNo report on the tax roll yet as of today. I called the listing agents office but nobody answered. I will check on it tomorrow for ya. I would bet they got at least a lowball offer into the lender and the lender went and pushed the sale out.
SD Realtor
ParticipantNo report on the tax roll yet as of today. I called the listing agents office but nobody answered. I will check on it tomorrow for ya. I would bet they got at least a lowball offer into the lender and the lender went and pushed the sale out.
SD Realtor
Participantkewp great line on the 401ks draining themselves…
I honestly do not think anyone will use the 401k money as an IV to keep the home they are in. Remember that you don’t just get to keep the money, it is essentially borrowing from the 401k so you have to pay it back and with interest. You may as well use your visa to do it. I think more people would just keep the 401k and lose the house.
Pabloescobar you make a very valid point. One which I conveniently ignored in all my thoughts about a 2010-2011 bottom. One of the reasons I have always thought about a bottom in that timeframe is based on previous cycles that were about 6 years in length. However the root causes behind depreciation cycles differ and thus the length of the cycle should be commensurate with the cure, not really with anything else. If indeed there is a huge overhang of ARM resets come 2011 and many of those are still indeed there when we actually get to 2011, then it is indeed LOGICAL to imply another wave of inventory and thus price pressure in that timeframe.
Speculation that people will lose homes before then or refinance out of the loans before then is just that speculation.
As with all my other posts regarding playing the guessing game of where the bottom will be, unemployment is the huge wildcard. If we get engineers, biotech guys, and lots of 6 figure salaried people looking for jobs or accepting lower paying jobs, then yeah we will see many of those homes going back to the bank before 2011… 460 billion is alot of lettuce man.
SD Realtor
Participantkewp great line on the 401ks draining themselves…
I honestly do not think anyone will use the 401k money as an IV to keep the home they are in. Remember that you don’t just get to keep the money, it is essentially borrowing from the 401k so you have to pay it back and with interest. You may as well use your visa to do it. I think more people would just keep the 401k and lose the house.
Pabloescobar you make a very valid point. One which I conveniently ignored in all my thoughts about a 2010-2011 bottom. One of the reasons I have always thought about a bottom in that timeframe is based on previous cycles that were about 6 years in length. However the root causes behind depreciation cycles differ and thus the length of the cycle should be commensurate with the cure, not really with anything else. If indeed there is a huge overhang of ARM resets come 2011 and many of those are still indeed there when we actually get to 2011, then it is indeed LOGICAL to imply another wave of inventory and thus price pressure in that timeframe.
Speculation that people will lose homes before then or refinance out of the loans before then is just that speculation.
As with all my other posts regarding playing the guessing game of where the bottom will be, unemployment is the huge wildcard. If we get engineers, biotech guys, and lots of 6 figure salaried people looking for jobs or accepting lower paying jobs, then yeah we will see many of those homes going back to the bank before 2011… 460 billion is alot of lettuce man.
SD Realtor
Participantkewp great line on the 401ks draining themselves…
I honestly do not think anyone will use the 401k money as an IV to keep the home they are in. Remember that you don’t just get to keep the money, it is essentially borrowing from the 401k so you have to pay it back and with interest. You may as well use your visa to do it. I think more people would just keep the 401k and lose the house.
Pabloescobar you make a very valid point. One which I conveniently ignored in all my thoughts about a 2010-2011 bottom. One of the reasons I have always thought about a bottom in that timeframe is based on previous cycles that were about 6 years in length. However the root causes behind depreciation cycles differ and thus the length of the cycle should be commensurate with the cure, not really with anything else. If indeed there is a huge overhang of ARM resets come 2011 and many of those are still indeed there when we actually get to 2011, then it is indeed LOGICAL to imply another wave of inventory and thus price pressure in that timeframe.
Speculation that people will lose homes before then or refinance out of the loans before then is just that speculation.
As with all my other posts regarding playing the guessing game of where the bottom will be, unemployment is the huge wildcard. If we get engineers, biotech guys, and lots of 6 figure salaried people looking for jobs or accepting lower paying jobs, then yeah we will see many of those homes going back to the bank before 2011… 460 billion is alot of lettuce man.
SD Realtor
Participantkewp great line on the 401ks draining themselves…
I honestly do not think anyone will use the 401k money as an IV to keep the home they are in. Remember that you don’t just get to keep the money, it is essentially borrowing from the 401k so you have to pay it back and with interest. You may as well use your visa to do it. I think more people would just keep the 401k and lose the house.
Pabloescobar you make a very valid point. One which I conveniently ignored in all my thoughts about a 2010-2011 bottom. One of the reasons I have always thought about a bottom in that timeframe is based on previous cycles that were about 6 years in length. However the root causes behind depreciation cycles differ and thus the length of the cycle should be commensurate with the cure, not really with anything else. If indeed there is a huge overhang of ARM resets come 2011 and many of those are still indeed there when we actually get to 2011, then it is indeed LOGICAL to imply another wave of inventory and thus price pressure in that timeframe.
Speculation that people will lose homes before then or refinance out of the loans before then is just that speculation.
As with all my other posts regarding playing the guessing game of where the bottom will be, unemployment is the huge wildcard. If we get engineers, biotech guys, and lots of 6 figure salaried people looking for jobs or accepting lower paying jobs, then yeah we will see many of those homes going back to the bank before 2011… 460 billion is alot of lettuce man.
SD Realtor
Participantkewp great line on the 401ks draining themselves…
I honestly do not think anyone will use the 401k money as an IV to keep the home they are in. Remember that you don’t just get to keep the money, it is essentially borrowing from the 401k so you have to pay it back and with interest. You may as well use your visa to do it. I think more people would just keep the 401k and lose the house.
Pabloescobar you make a very valid point. One which I conveniently ignored in all my thoughts about a 2010-2011 bottom. One of the reasons I have always thought about a bottom in that timeframe is based on previous cycles that were about 6 years in length. However the root causes behind depreciation cycles differ and thus the length of the cycle should be commensurate with the cure, not really with anything else. If indeed there is a huge overhang of ARM resets come 2011 and many of those are still indeed there when we actually get to 2011, then it is indeed LOGICAL to imply another wave of inventory and thus price pressure in that timeframe.
Speculation that people will lose homes before then or refinance out of the loans before then is just that speculation.
As with all my other posts regarding playing the guessing game of where the bottom will be, unemployment is the huge wildcard. If we get engineers, biotech guys, and lots of 6 figure salaried people looking for jobs or accepting lower paying jobs, then yeah we will see many of those homes going back to the bank before 2011… 460 billion is alot of lettuce man.
SD Realtor
ParticipantRaptor please remember that secular markets are simply envelopes of cyclical markets. The cyclicals will either have higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows depending on the direction of the secular market. Spring is typically a time of cyclical activity that is rising. You will need to be patient. By later in the summer the price rallies will be done and the nicer homes will either be purchased or repriced to sell.
Buyers who purchase in the spring (especially for nicer homes) should always be prepared for pricing that is commensurate with the time of year.
It is frustrating. Plus you are shopping in an area of denial and/or substantial equity investments.
SD Realtor
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