[scaredyclassic]

I find myself in a position today where I could never work again and enjoy the same lifestyle even accounting for high medical insurance with no worries, even for scaredycat.

The problem for me is I could not afford large future expenses I might want to make. I couldn’t afford to pay cash for a kids medical school. I couldn’t give large cash down payments for houses. I couldn’t help out with free cars and stuff. I also need to send money to the Escondido Buddhists…

I’d like to be able to do all those things. If I kept working, I could, and not feel impact about future anxiety. Also, I sometimes like work and don’t want to be a useless old man who no one listens to. Worse, I could turn into an old guy who talks about prior work days. Ugh. I hate old guys like that

Therefore although I do not feel like working on Tuesday, or this weekend, I’ll be heading in later today.

Even if I were to die tomorrow, I would feel about this life direction it is correct

[scaredyclassic]

I would like to purchase a traditional Bedouin robe, but not ez to find. The bedouins know about desert life

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/aug/19/most-improbable-scientific-research-abrahams

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=flyer]There are definitely many different theories concerning the essence of being. It sounds like you’ve found yours, and I’m glad your son let you know how much he cares about you. A reason well worth living for.[/quote]

Well, he used the word need, not love
But I’ll settle for need

[scaredyclassic]

Ah, I also have sun gloves

I think it’s key to have extra gear in the car, around the house, so one doesn’t forget or get caught in a situation where you’re out more than u expected.

[scaredyclassic]

I despise sunscreen. I’d prefer to wrap myself in a keffiyeh and hat, wear long sleeves and pants and maybe carry an umbrella at all times.

I just feel like a greasy baking piece of meat with sunscreen.

Great deals on the Tilley ltm6 at rei right now. Straw hats just don’t feel as light or comfy or ventilated on the head as the Tilley
Ltm6. I’m very curious to try the ltm8 too .

I do sometimes wear my mask on the bike. It is very functional but more annoying w heavy breathing. Not a bad solution tho I prefer the looseness of the keffiyeh

[scaredyclassic]

Keffiyeh is perfect convertible solution.

Umbrella is awesome!!!

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=flyer]Yes, scaredy, no one can deny the body, as we know it, has a termination date. No amount of money anyone acquires will change that. However, there are many theories, metaphysical, religious, yes, even scientific, etc., wrt the continuation of existence in many forms, beyond this realm, and those are for each of us to embrace as we choose. (or not)[/quote]

The Buddhist friends I give money to every month in Escondido explained that there is no Me separate from the entire universe, so my constituent parts will never die, but merely be transformed. Sounds reasonable.

I was walking the other nite with my youngest and said I was ready to die anytime, I had done enough, but that I was not quite prepared to suffer. He said to wait a bit because he still needed me. I didn’t get into the issue of whether we actually had independent selfs.

[scaredyclassic]

My favorite FLAMING LIPS song sings it well..

Do you realize
That you have the most beautiful face?
Do you realize
We’re floating in space?
Do you realize
That happiness makes you cry?
Do you realize
That everyone you know someday will die?
And instead of saying all of your goodbyes
Let them know you realize that life goes fast
It’s hard to make the good things last
You realize the sun doesn’t go down
It’s just an illusion caused by the world spinning round
Do you realize?
Ah-ah-ah
Do you realize
That everyone you know someday will die?
And instead of saying all of your goodbyes
Let them know you realize that life goes fast
It’s hard to make the good things last
You realize the sun doesn’t go down
It’s just an illusion caused by the world spinning round
Do you realize
That you have the most beautiful face?
Do you realize?

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=XBoxBoy]This thread has been great for me. When this thread was posted, I was tempted, but didn’t sell anything. (instead I have continued my steady dribble of savings into the stock market)

This thread has confirmed for me:
1) that I should never take advice from people on the internet
2) that I am not a speculator, that for me the only viable strategy is buy and hold.
3) I am not able to time the market, not even close.

I need to see these sort of threads to be reminded of these things.[/quote]

Agree x 10

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=gzz]Returns have been high in the past few decades because of rapid technological progress and growth in the skilled working-age population.

Tech progress is slowing however. Not in every field, but in most of them. And one by one, the working age population in developed countries has stopped growing and is now in reverse. The main exception are those with high levels of immigration, however those nations are either importing people with lower skill levels than the shrinking native population and cannibalizing the skilled population from other low-growth nations (eg., China to USA, Slovakia to Germany).

Another factor that led to strong returns in the recent past was the “great moderation” where returns became more predictable and with lower and lower inflation and market interest rates. This made long-lived assets like real estate more valuable. That trend isn’t done yet, put it’s in its fourth quarter.[/quote]

I’m in the 4th quarter myself

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=gzz]ucodegen, using long term US stock market returns has serious survivorship bias issues.

How did Russian stocks do from 1871? Farmland in Poland? Confederate and Third Reich bonds?

To put it another way, any asset class we have long term historical data on is cherry-picked and better than average, simply because so many asset classes had drastically negative, -100% returns.

What number to use then?

In my view, it is mistaken and often hubris to assume one’s investments will do better than treasuries. So about 2%.[/quote]

Inflation adjusted?

[scaredyclassic]

Diversify. Like, really diversify.

I think the best returns can be had on stocking up on things on sales at Costco.

I make 20 perc a year on dental floss.

[scaredyclassic]

Charts are kinda like reading the entrails of animal sacrifices

[scaredyclassic]

I’d agree with the first sentence, but just strike the last four words.

All decisions must be made entirely future looking. Past performance is absolutely irrelevant.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=plm][quote=scaredyclassic]in spite of the fact that every prospectus warns you that past performance does not predict future results, we all kinda believe that past performance predicts future results and the prospectus is just saying that cause the dumb old stodgy SEC makes them.[/quote]

You sort of have to go by past performance. It might not match but that is the best guess. If not, my planning on getting 9 percent returns and being able to retire early is a bad decision.[/quote]

Why is past performance the best guess?

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