[scaredyclassic]

“Past performance does not necessarily indicate future results.”

i guess we just read this on every investment document we ever receive, but no one really takes it seriously.

on the other hand, how else could one guess as to furure results.

[scaredyclassic]

the crazy mans portfolio…

10% gold
10% litecoin
3% tittiecoin
17% comic books.
4% russell 2000
1% pennies with copper
7% bonds
25% oil
22% s&p 500.
1% guns and ammo

[scaredyclassic]

things grow, and then they die.

our economy is different?

japans stock markets been basically flat for 30 years. is that not possible here?

[scaredyclassic]

what if the future is nothing like the past?

[scaredyclassic]

40/60 sounds aggressive to me at age 30.

ignore me.

i see the stock mkt as sane people view cryptocurrency. a giant lie.

[scaredyclassic]

My numbers are way off. It’s 1100 and 650 p & I.

And I’m a little off the deep end calculating I’d need a 12 perc return when I’m basically counting not gains but getting back principal I’d have paid lump sum over many years,

OTOH

I fear this 200k could get spent quickly on home improvements.

Even a clean 3.375 perc is better than a new kitchen.

The money has to go somewhere. What’re my safer options. I can’t leave it in a money mkt fund.

Cali muni bonds?

I wouldn’t have thought interest rates would still be this low n 2018. It’s almost like I’m capitulating.

[scaredyclassic]

I do not see how a 5% return on 370,000 would beat paying off the mortgage.

5% on 370,000 is 18,500 a year. Minus 45% taxes leaves me with about 10,000 extra in the bank every year after taxes.

Paying off the mortgage leaves me with about 25,000 extra in the bank every year (2,100 p&i x 12) after taxes.

What am I missing here? Am I being obtuse to something obvious? How in the hell is 5% return anywhere close to matching the return on paying this off?

[scaredyclassic]

45% state and fed.?

[scaredyclassic]

an annuity sales website estimated id get a lifetime annuity of 1550 a mo if i gave them 370k.

paying the mortgage id be saving 2100 a month p and i for 25 years remaining on loan plus 370k in equity TODAY. almost like getting a better annuity FREE.

seems like a Way better deal than the annuity. 25 years is likely close to a lifetime annuity for me.

or maybe its more like a,25 year bond. thats currently at 2.8 perc. less than 2 perc after taxes. the mortgage payoff is at least double that….

Maybe im overthinking this, but…where am I going astray in my calculations…

If I didn’t have a mortgage, I’d be up about 2,100 a month from p&I I did not pay.

That’s about $25,000 a year I’d have extra in the bank every year.

In order to get $25,000 in the bank ordinarily, I’d have to earn $45,000 (minus taxes, would leave me with 25k)

$45000 a year from 370,000 is about a 12 percent pretax return. There’s no way in hell any investment is going to spin off a guaranteed 12 percent pretax a year.

I’m not sure how I got to 12% froma 3.375% mortgage…I suppose I’m partially just getting my principal returned. But I do get the equity in the home.

Argh. Not sure….

Am I double counting or miscounting here? Have I simply gone mad???!!@@@

i think my heart really wants to pay it off, but my mind is looking for justification that this is a smart and not overly conservative financial move.

the reality is if i dont move fast my wife will probably spend 75k renovating the kitchen…

[scaredyclassic]

…

[scaredyclassic]

A decent recession and that’s over.

Incidentally the amount of building in Temecula and murrieta is insane. Far from freeway. They’re getting built so fast..

[scaredyclassic]

My wife still wants to do that but jeez. It sounds risky and how much more than 6 percent could we really make?

Too scared…

Another way to look at it. I pay about 2100 a month p and I.

Figure 25,000 a year. If I pay off 370k, it’s like I’m getting an annuity of 25000 a year assuming we remain employed…. For the next 25 years. That’s 625000, Plus I get to own the house.

Not sure how much a 25k yearly annuity is worth but it’s probably expensive.

However I was looking forward to making monthly payment with inflated pocket change in 2035.

I really want to do the rational thing…

[scaredyclassic]

its not the debt im worried about, its the terms.

3.375 sounds low, but thats paid with posttax money. its not really that low.

im just not confident i can earn 6 perc pretax anywhere else.

i guess my “problem” is we are earning much more than we are spending and i need to do something…first world problem, i guess, but fuck, capitalism is stressful…

[scaredyclassic]

trumps grave will need 24 hr security, i predict. people will dump buckets of feces for many years to come.

[scaredyclassic]

oh wait. i forgot.

we are doomed.

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