[Rt.66]

Dude, your first statement was decidedly bullish and the second is definitely backing down from that stance. You do know that we can read them right?

Don’t worry, if I made a living selling 40 year old 1500 sq’ homes to people that sold for $160k in 2000, for $499k today, and was trying to convince myself and the buyers that it was a good deal because it sold for $750k in 2005 I’d be conflicted too.

I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find. I bet there are many homes with mortgages in your hood that are delinquent that have no NOD filled yet as well.

What’s a “loan mod in process”? Sounds like code for bank waiting for a good time to say NO, it’s just a foreclosure with baggage. As I said before, the mistakes both ways even out to a degree.

How many “short sales” have rotted on banker’s desks with no real intention of closing? More may be closing now but its still an unreliable stat.

Banks are playing all sorts of games of hide the problem and you are falling for some of them.

Your argument that all foreclosure data sources are wrong is just sad, Really. People are not paying their mortgage because they are underwater by $100ks, this has been going on and continues and is even accelerating in many areas or haven’t you heard.

Talk about trying to fight a mountain of data.

[Rt.66]

Dude, your first statement was decidedly bullish and the second is definitely backing down from that stance. You do know that we can read them right?

Don’t worry, if I made a living selling 40 year old 1500 sq’ homes to people that sold for $160k in 2000, for $499k today, and was trying to convince myself and the buyers that it was a good deal because it sold for $750k in 2005 I’d be conflicted too.

I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find. I bet there are many homes with mortgages in your hood that are delinquent that have no NOD filled yet as well.

What’s a “loan mod in process”? Sounds like code for bank waiting for a good time to say NO, it’s just a foreclosure with baggage. As I said before, the mistakes both ways even out to a degree.

How many “short sales” have rotted on banker’s desks with no real intention of closing? More may be closing now but its still an unreliable stat.

Banks are playing all sorts of games of hide the problem and you are falling for some of them.

Your argument that all foreclosure data sources are wrong is just sad, Really. People are not paying their mortgage because they are underwater by $100ks, this has been going on and continues and is even accelerating in many areas or haven’t you heard.

Talk about trying to fight a mountain of data.

[Rt.66]

Dude, your first statement was decidedly bullish and the second is definitely backing down from that stance. You do know that we can read them right?

Don’t worry, if I made a living selling 40 year old 1500 sq’ homes to people that sold for $160k in 2000, for $499k today, and was trying to convince myself and the buyers that it was a good deal because it sold for $750k in 2005 I’d be conflicted too.

I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find. I bet there are many homes with mortgages in your hood that are delinquent that have no NOD filled yet as well.

What’s a “loan mod in process”? Sounds like code for bank waiting for a good time to say NO, it’s just a foreclosure with baggage. As I said before, the mistakes both ways even out to a degree.

How many “short sales” have rotted on banker’s desks with no real intention of closing? More may be closing now but its still an unreliable stat.

Banks are playing all sorts of games of hide the problem and you are falling for some of them.

Your argument that all foreclosure data sources are wrong is just sad, Really. People are not paying their mortgage because they are underwater by $100ks, this has been going on and continues and is even accelerating in many areas or haven’t you heard.

Talk about trying to fight a mountain of data.

[Rt.66]

Dude, your first statement was decidedly bullish and the second is definitely backing down from that stance. You do know that we can read them right?

Don’t worry, if I made a living selling 40 year old 1500 sq’ homes to people that sold for $160k in 2000, for $499k today, and was trying to convince myself and the buyers that it was a good deal because it sold for $750k in 2005 I’d be conflicted too.

I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find. I bet there are many homes with mortgages in your hood that are delinquent that have no NOD filled yet as well.

What’s a “loan mod in process”? Sounds like code for bank waiting for a good time to say NO, it’s just a foreclosure with baggage. As I said before, the mistakes both ways even out to a degree.

How many “short sales” have rotted on banker’s desks with no real intention of closing? More may be closing now but its still an unreliable stat.

Banks are playing all sorts of games of hide the problem and you are falling for some of them.

Your argument that all foreclosure data sources are wrong is just sad, Really. People are not paying their mortgage because they are underwater by $100ks, this has been going on and continues and is even accelerating in many areas or haven’t you heard.

Talk about trying to fight a mountain of data.

[Rt.66]

Dude, your first statement was decidedly bullish and the second is definitely backing down from that stance. You do know that we can read them right?

Don’t worry, if I made a living selling 40 year old 1500 sq’ homes to people that sold for $160k in 2000, for $499k today, and was trying to convince myself and the buyers that it was a good deal because it sold for $750k in 2005 I’d be conflicted too.

I can name just as many homes in my hood that are bank owned and empty yet don’t show up on any foreclosure data source I can find. I bet there are many homes with mortgages in your hood that are delinquent that have no NOD filled yet as well.

What’s a “loan mod in process”? Sounds like code for bank waiting for a good time to say NO, it’s just a foreclosure with baggage. As I said before, the mistakes both ways even out to a degree.

How many “short sales” have rotted on banker’s desks with no real intention of closing? More may be closing now but its still an unreliable stat.

Banks are playing all sorts of games of hide the problem and you are falling for some of them.

Your argument that all foreclosure data sources are wrong is just sad, Really. People are not paying their mortgage because they are underwater by $100ks, this has been going on and continues and is even accelerating in many areas or haven’t you heard.

Talk about trying to fight a mountain of data.

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.).

The worst has come and gone already. The best is a distant dream but your nightmare predictions did not come to pass nor will they. Take it like a man.[/quote]

[quote=sdrealtor]I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently. .[/quote]

One of these things is not like the other. You went from “All are not bad for RE values” and “upward pressure”, “limited supply”, shadow inventory a fraction of believed etc. to…. “Ugly from this point on”. Make up your mind.

And you call me SpinBoy?

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.).

The worst has come and gone already. The best is a distant dream but your nightmare predictions did not come to pass nor will they. Take it like a man.[/quote]

[quote=sdrealtor]I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently. .[/quote]

One of these things is not like the other. You went from “All are not bad for RE values” and “upward pressure”, “limited supply”, shadow inventory a fraction of believed etc. to…. “Ugly from this point on”. Make up your mind.

And you call me SpinBoy?

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.).

The worst has come and gone already. The best is a distant dream but your nightmare predictions did not come to pass nor will they. Take it like a man.[/quote]

[quote=sdrealtor]I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently. .[/quote]

One of these things is not like the other. You went from “All are not bad for RE values” and “upward pressure”, “limited supply”, shadow inventory a fraction of believed etc. to…. “Ugly from this point on”. Make up your mind.

And you call me SpinBoy?

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.).

The worst has come and gone already. The best is a distant dream but your nightmare predictions did not come to pass nor will they. Take it like a man.[/quote]

[quote=sdrealtor]I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently. .[/quote]

One of these things is not like the other. You went from “All are not bad for RE values” and “upward pressure”, “limited supply”, shadow inventory a fraction of believed etc. to…. “Ugly from this point on”. Make up your mind.

And you call me SpinBoy?

[Rt.66]

[quote=sdrealtor]All are not bad for RE values. Limited supply creates stability and or upward pressure. We have limited supply. The shadow inventory is actually a fraction of what the most bearish (like yourself) beleive. The short sale epidemic is not growing but is rather becoming more orderly and predictable. The looming Option ARM issue is a complete unknown and will likely be addressed in some shape or form (forbearances, loan mods etc.).

The worst has come and gone already. The best is a distant dream but your nightmare predictions did not come to pass nor will they. Take it like a man.[/quote]

[quote=sdrealtor]I didnt say markets are improving but rather the worst is done and we will slog along for quite some time to come. It will be slow and ugly from this point on. I have never said differently. .[/quote]

One of these things is not like the other. You went from “All are not bad for RE values” and “upward pressure”, “limited supply”, shadow inventory a fraction of believed etc. to…. “Ugly from this point on”. Make up your mind.

And you call me SpinBoy?

[Rt.66]

Very well put Rich.

As for the analyst on CNBC all I can say is WTF? So now having a rational argument backed by data is an indication you are wrong? WTF? If I pull numbers out my butt is it an indication I’m correct? That really is the dumbest theory I’ve ever heard.

As for me (not saying you were referring to me) I do not have a dog in this fight. I don’t need another house and I don’t have an underwater mortgage and I am not looking for a good reason to walk away from an underwater house. I do not NEED prices to drop.

I do not start at “I’m a bear on housing” and then work to support it. The numbers all support a disaster happening right now, yet market manipulation has convinced some to argue that things are improving and that’s the reason for the bidding wars and not the historic level of manipulation.

Those who bought recently have a dog in this fight and so do realtors. Realtors don’t make money when buyers are sitting on their thumbs waiting for the next leg down. So for them regardless what they say, they need people thinking the worst is behind us.

————-

BTW Anyone else put off by the boasting of a realtor claiming he’s making a killing selling homes the banks took away from the families who believed realtors and bought at wildly inflated prices during the bubble? If I were a realtor I’d keep my mouth shut and be thankful every day I was not banished to a leper colony for being part of the industry that has caused so much pain for families and the country.

I am not saying all realtors are bad but still best to not rub our faces in it when you really should expect to be looked upon with the same suspicion as an Enron Officer.

———

Scaredycat:

I would start by waiting for a time frame when depression era levels of foreclosures and unemployment are not looming over the market WITH enormous levels of manipulation and fraud. Then maybe look at consumer debt ratios and historic RE prices. Put these together and you have a good starting point for identifying a “good time to buy”.

[Rt.66]

Very well put Rich.

As for the analyst on CNBC all I can say is WTF? So now having a rational argument backed by data is an indication you are wrong? WTF? If I pull numbers out my butt is it an indication I’m correct? That really is the dumbest theory I’ve ever heard.

As for me (not saying you were referring to me) I do not have a dog in this fight. I don’t need another house and I don’t have an underwater mortgage and I am not looking for a good reason to walk away from an underwater house. I do not NEED prices to drop.

I do not start at “I’m a bear on housing” and then work to support it. The numbers all support a disaster happening right now, yet market manipulation has convinced some to argue that things are improving and that’s the reason for the bidding wars and not the historic level of manipulation.

Those who bought recently have a dog in this fight and so do realtors. Realtors don’t make money when buyers are sitting on their thumbs waiting for the next leg down. So for them regardless what they say, they need people thinking the worst is behind us.

————-

BTW Anyone else put off by the boasting of a realtor claiming he’s making a killing selling homes the banks took away from the families who believed realtors and bought at wildly inflated prices during the bubble? If I were a realtor I’d keep my mouth shut and be thankful every day I was not banished to a leper colony for being part of the industry that has caused so much pain for families and the country.

I am not saying all realtors are bad but still best to not rub our faces in it when you really should expect to be looked upon with the same suspicion as an Enron Officer.

———

Scaredycat:

I would start by waiting for a time frame when depression era levels of foreclosures and unemployment are not looming over the market WITH enormous levels of manipulation and fraud. Then maybe look at consumer debt ratios and historic RE prices. Put these together and you have a good starting point for identifying a “good time to buy”.

[Rt.66]

Very well put Rich.

As for the analyst on CNBC all I can say is WTF? So now having a rational argument backed by data is an indication you are wrong? WTF? If I pull numbers out my butt is it an indication I’m correct? That really is the dumbest theory I’ve ever heard.

As for me (not saying you were referring to me) I do not have a dog in this fight. I don’t need another house and I don’t have an underwater mortgage and I am not looking for a good reason to walk away from an underwater house. I do not NEED prices to drop.

I do not start at “I’m a bear on housing” and then work to support it. The numbers all support a disaster happening right now, yet market manipulation has convinced some to argue that things are improving and that’s the reason for the bidding wars and not the historic level of manipulation.

Those who bought recently have a dog in this fight and so do realtors. Realtors don’t make money when buyers are sitting on their thumbs waiting for the next leg down. So for them regardless what they say, they need people thinking the worst is behind us.

————-

BTW Anyone else put off by the boasting of a realtor claiming he’s making a killing selling homes the banks took away from the families who believed realtors and bought at wildly inflated prices during the bubble? If I were a realtor I’d keep my mouth shut and be thankful every day I was not banished to a leper colony for being part of the industry that has caused so much pain for families and the country.

I am not saying all realtors are bad but still best to not rub our faces in it when you really should expect to be looked upon with the same suspicion as an Enron Officer.

———

Scaredycat:

I would start by waiting for a time frame when depression era levels of foreclosures and unemployment are not looming over the market WITH enormous levels of manipulation and fraud. Then maybe look at consumer debt ratios and historic RE prices. Put these together and you have a good starting point for identifying a “good time to buy”.

[Rt.66]

Very well put Rich.

As for the analyst on CNBC all I can say is WTF? So now having a rational argument backed by data is an indication you are wrong? WTF? If I pull numbers out my butt is it an indication I’m correct? That really is the dumbest theory I’ve ever heard.

As for me (not saying you were referring to me) I do not have a dog in this fight. I don’t need another house and I don’t have an underwater mortgage and I am not looking for a good reason to walk away from an underwater house. I do not NEED prices to drop.

I do not start at “I’m a bear on housing” and then work to support it. The numbers all support a disaster happening right now, yet market manipulation has convinced some to argue that things are improving and that’s the reason for the bidding wars and not the historic level of manipulation.

Those who bought recently have a dog in this fight and so do realtors. Realtors don’t make money when buyers are sitting on their thumbs waiting for the next leg down. So for them regardless what they say, they need people thinking the worst is behind us.

————-

BTW Anyone else put off by the boasting of a realtor claiming he’s making a killing selling homes the banks took away from the families who believed realtors and bought at wildly inflated prices during the bubble? If I were a realtor I’d keep my mouth shut and be thankful every day I was not banished to a leper colony for being part of the industry that has caused so much pain for families and the country.

I am not saying all realtors are bad but still best to not rub our faces in it when you really should expect to be looked upon with the same suspicion as an Enron Officer.

———

Scaredycat:

I would start by waiting for a time frame when depression era levels of foreclosures and unemployment are not looming over the market WITH enormous levels of manipulation and fraud. Then maybe look at consumer debt ratios and historic RE prices. Put these together and you have a good starting point for identifying a “good time to buy”.

[Rt.66]

Very well put Rich.

As for the analyst on CNBC all I can say is WTF? So now having a rational argument backed by data is an indication you are wrong? WTF? If I pull numbers out my butt is it an indication I’m correct? That really is the dumbest theory I’ve ever heard.

As for me (not saying you were referring to me) I do not have a dog in this fight. I don’t need another house and I don’t have an underwater mortgage and I am not looking for a good reason to walk away from an underwater house. I do not NEED prices to drop.

I do not start at “I’m a bear on housing” and then work to support it. The numbers all support a disaster happening right now, yet market manipulation has convinced some to argue that things are improving and that’s the reason for the bidding wars and not the historic level of manipulation.

Those who bought recently have a dog in this fight and so do realtors. Realtors don’t make money when buyers are sitting on their thumbs waiting for the next leg down. So for them regardless what they say, they need people thinking the worst is behind us.

————-

BTW Anyone else put off by the boasting of a realtor claiming he’s making a killing selling homes the banks took away from the families who believed realtors and bought at wildly inflated prices during the bubble? If I were a realtor I’d keep my mouth shut and be thankful every day I was not banished to a leper colony for being part of the industry that has caused so much pain for families and the country.

I am not saying all realtors are bad but still best to not rub our faces in it when you really should expect to be looked upon with the same suspicion as an Enron Officer.

———

Scaredycat:

I would start by waiting for a time frame when depression era levels of foreclosures and unemployment are not looming over the market WITH enormous levels of manipulation and fraud. Then maybe look at consumer debt ratios and historic RE prices. Put these together and you have a good starting point for identifying a “good time to buy”.

[Author]

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