Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
rseiser
ParticipantI am not able to find housing prices for 1970-1990. Nationwide monthly prices on resale homes would just do fine. I would like to compare them with long-term interest rates. If anything, we are close to the 70s with rising commodity prices and languishing stock markets. Interest rates will eventually rise, and I wonder how home prices respond (stagnate initially and rise later?).
If anyone can point me to downloadable data I would be greatful.
ParticipantI am not able to find housing prices for 1970-1990. Nationwide monthly prices on resale homes would just do fine. I would like to compare them with long-term interest rates. If anything, we are close to the 70s with rising commodity prices and languishing stock markets. Interest rates will eventually rise, and I wonder how home prices respond (stagnate initially and rise later?).
If anyone can point me to downloadable data I would be greatful.
ParticipantI am not able to find housing prices for 1970-1990. Nationwide monthly prices on resale homes would just do fine. I would like to compare them with long-term interest rates. If anything, we are close to the 70s with rising commodity prices and languishing stock markets. Interest rates will eventually rise, and I wonder how home prices respond (stagnate initially and rise later?).
If anyone can point me to downloadable data I would be greatful.
ParticipantI am not able to find housing prices for 1970-1990. Nationwide monthly prices on resale homes would just do fine. I would like to compare them with long-term interest rates. If anything, we are close to the 70s with rising commodity prices and languishing stock markets. Interest rates will eventually rise, and I wonder how home prices respond (stagnate initially and rise later?).
If anyone can point me to downloadable data I would be greatful.
ParticipantDid quite well shorting this year (finally!). But covered most now. It is not easy as I described before in my article.
Regarding shorting oil, I don’t think I would do it considering the risk. As a better strategy, I would consider going long on companies whose input costs depend strongly on oil. That way, if oil goes down one can make a good profit on the long side. And if it doesn’t, one can still collect some dividends or hope that the company passes on the higher costs well. I would be looking for example at Dow Chemical (DOW). They just increased their prices a lot, and I doubt they will lower them if oil comes down.
But I am happy for any other ideas.
ParticipantDid quite well shorting this year (finally!). But covered most now. It is not easy as I described before in my article.
Regarding shorting oil, I don’t think I would do it considering the risk. As a better strategy, I would consider going long on companies whose input costs depend strongly on oil. That way, if oil goes down one can make a good profit on the long side. And if it doesn’t, one can still collect some dividends or hope that the company passes on the higher costs well. I would be looking for example at Dow Chemical (DOW). They just increased their prices a lot, and I doubt they will lower them if oil comes down.
But I am happy for any other ideas.
ParticipantDid quite well shorting this year (finally!). But covered most now. It is not easy as I described before in my article.
Regarding shorting oil, I don’t think I would do it considering the risk. As a better strategy, I would consider going long on companies whose input costs depend strongly on oil. That way, if oil goes down one can make a good profit on the long side. And if it doesn’t, one can still collect some dividends or hope that the company passes on the higher costs well. I would be looking for example at Dow Chemical (DOW). They just increased their prices a lot, and I doubt they will lower them if oil comes down.
But I am happy for any other ideas.
ParticipantDid quite well shorting this year (finally!). But covered most now. It is not easy as I described before in my article.
Regarding shorting oil, I don’t think I would do it considering the risk. As a better strategy, I would consider going long on companies whose input costs depend strongly on oil. That way, if oil goes down one can make a good profit on the long side. And if it doesn’t, one can still collect some dividends or hope that the company passes on the higher costs well. I would be looking for example at Dow Chemical (DOW). They just increased their prices a lot, and I doubt they will lower them if oil comes down.
But I am happy for any other ideas.
ParticipantDid quite well shorting this year (finally!). But covered most now. It is not easy as I described before in my article.
Regarding shorting oil, I don’t think I would do it considering the risk. As a better strategy, I would consider going long on companies whose input costs depend strongly on oil. That way, if oil goes down one can make a good profit on the long side. And if it doesn’t, one can still collect some dividends or hope that the company passes on the higher costs well. I would be looking for example at Dow Chemical (DOW). They just increased their prices a lot, and I doubt they will lower them if oil comes down.
But I am happy for any other ideas.
ParticipantStopping the Fed printing money will certainly unleash the deflationary forces of credit contraction. Hence, some prices will fall. But since he will cut tons of wasted overseas spending, there will be more money available at home. All of his policies will lead to a stronger dollar. Again, this might not keep asset bubbles alive, but it will also be easier to keep interest rates lower, so at least we won’t have a 1970s experience.
ParticipantStopping the Fed printing money will certainly unleash the deflationary forces of credit contraction. Hence, some prices will fall. But since he will cut tons of wasted overseas spending, there will be more money available at home. All of his policies will lead to a stronger dollar. Again, this might not keep asset bubbles alive, but it will also be easier to keep interest rates lower, so at least we won’t have a 1970s experience.
ParticipantStopping the Fed printing money will certainly unleash the deflationary forces of credit contraction. Hence, some prices will fall. But since he will cut tons of wasted overseas spending, there will be more money available at home. All of his policies will lead to a stronger dollar. Again, this might not keep asset bubbles alive, but it will also be easier to keep interest rates lower, so at least we won’t have a 1970s experience.
ParticipantStopping the Fed printing money will certainly unleash the deflationary forces of credit contraction. Hence, some prices will fall. But since he will cut tons of wasted overseas spending, there will be more money available at home. All of his policies will lead to a stronger dollar. Again, this might not keep asset bubbles alive, but it will also be easier to keep interest rates lower, so at least we won’t have a 1970s experience.
ParticipantStopping the Fed printing money will certainly unleash the deflationary forces of credit contraction. Hence, some prices will fall. But since he will cut tons of wasted overseas spending, there will be more money available at home. All of his policies will lead to a stronger dollar. Again, this might not keep asset bubbles alive, but it will also be easier to keep interest rates lower, so at least we won’t have a 1970s experience.
-
AuthorPosts