[Rich Toscano]

Sorry, basically the spam system is a bit aggro on some things. It doesn’t seem to like things that just consist of links. Unfortunately I can’t approve stuff, it just gets tagged and rejected. Over time, the more non-spam (in its opinion) that you post, the more you are able to post but if you start out of the gate with just a link it doesn’t like that.

Sorry for the hassle but the spam problem has gotten completely out of control and an automated system to manage it is necessary.

I am going to push for a way to whitelist people manually but that doesn’t exist right now. In the meantime, sorry for the hassle.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Sorry, basically the spam system is a bit aggro on some things. It doesn’t seem to like things that just consist of links. Unfortunately I can’t approve stuff, it just gets tagged and rejected. Over time, the more non-spam (in its opinion) that you post, the more you are able to post but if you start out of the gate with just a link it doesn’t like that.

Sorry for the hassle but the spam problem has gotten completely out of control and an automated system to manage it is necessary.

I am going to push for a way to whitelist people manually but that doesn’t exist right now. In the meantime, sorry for the hassle.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Sorry, basically the spam system is a bit aggro on some things. It doesn’t seem to like things that just consist of links. Unfortunately I can’t approve stuff, it just gets tagged and rejected. Over time, the more non-spam (in its opinion) that you post, the more you are able to post but if you start out of the gate with just a link it doesn’t like that.

Sorry for the hassle but the spam problem has gotten completely out of control and an automated system to manage it is necessary.

I am going to push for a way to whitelist people manually but that doesn’t exist right now. In the meantime, sorry for the hassle.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Sorry, basically the spam system is a bit aggro on some things. It doesn’t seem to like things that just consist of links. Unfortunately I can’t approve stuff, it just gets tagged and rejected. Over time, the more non-spam (in its opinion) that you post, the more you are able to post but if you start out of the gate with just a link it doesn’t like that.

Sorry for the hassle but the spam problem has gotten completely out of control and an automated system to manage it is necessary.

I am going to push for a way to whitelist people manually but that doesn’t exist right now. In the meantime, sorry for the hassle.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Ed, I have always used the “regional economic data set” from SANDAG as it offers a lot of the info I need in one neat spreadsheet. I compared to BEA data and it looks like they are in lockstep but then started to diverge by a couple percent in 05 or thereabouts. Not sure what this is all about — I will look into it when I get some time. But it shouldn’t account for a big difference in aggregate…

Regarding income growing faster than CPI, this seems reasonable based on the shift in jobs here and economic growth in general (which would hopefully see incomes grow faster than the cost of living over time).

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Ed, I have always used the “regional economic data set” from SANDAG as it offers a lot of the info I need in one neat spreadsheet. I compared to BEA data and it looks like they are in lockstep but then started to diverge by a couple percent in 05 or thereabouts. Not sure what this is all about — I will look into it when I get some time. But it shouldn’t account for a big difference in aggregate…

Regarding income growing faster than CPI, this seems reasonable based on the shift in jobs here and economic growth in general (which would hopefully see incomes grow faster than the cost of living over time).

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Ed, I have always used the “regional economic data set” from SANDAG as it offers a lot of the info I need in one neat spreadsheet. I compared to BEA data and it looks like they are in lockstep but then started to diverge by a couple percent in 05 or thereabouts. Not sure what this is all about — I will look into it when I get some time. But it shouldn’t account for a big difference in aggregate…

Regarding income growing faster than CPI, this seems reasonable based on the shift in jobs here and economic growth in general (which would hopefully see incomes grow faster than the cost of living over time).

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Ed, I have always used the “regional economic data set” from SANDAG as it offers a lot of the info I need in one neat spreadsheet. I compared to BEA data and it looks like they are in lockstep but then started to diverge by a couple percent in 05 or thereabouts. Not sure what this is all about — I will look into it when I get some time. But it shouldn’t account for a big difference in aggregate…

Regarding income growing faster than CPI, this seems reasonable based on the shift in jobs here and economic growth in general (which would hopefully see incomes grow faster than the cost of living over time).

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Ed, I have always used the “regional economic data set” from SANDAG as it offers a lot of the info I need in one neat spreadsheet. I compared to BEA data and it looks like they are in lockstep but then started to diverge by a couple percent in 05 or thereabouts. Not sure what this is all about — I will look into it when I get some time. But it shouldn’t account for a big difference in aggregate…

Regarding income growing faster than CPI, this seems reasonable based on the shift in jobs here and economic growth in general (which would hopefully see incomes grow faster than the cost of living over time).

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

davelj, you are correct, peak oil is absolutely not accepted as fact by all experts. But I would note that CERA is famous for their optimistic view on oil production (not to mention their dismal forecasting record). They come across to me as the NAR of oil forecasting.

To be clear, I realize that you weren’t endorsing the views of CERA, and that you were just rebutting the “observation vs theory” statement — I just couldn’t help taking a shot at CERA.

rich

[Rich Toscano]

davelj, you are correct, peak oil is absolutely not accepted as fact by all experts. But I would note that CERA is famous for their optimistic view on oil production (not to mention their dismal forecasting record). They come across to me as the NAR of oil forecasting.

To be clear, I realize that you weren’t endorsing the views of CERA, and that you were just rebutting the “observation vs theory” statement — I just couldn’t help taking a shot at CERA.

rich

[Rich Toscano]

davelj, you are correct, peak oil is absolutely not accepted as fact by all experts. But I would note that CERA is famous for their optimistic view on oil production (not to mention their dismal forecasting record). They come across to me as the NAR of oil forecasting.

To be clear, I realize that you weren’t endorsing the views of CERA, and that you were just rebutting the “observation vs theory” statement — I just couldn’t help taking a shot at CERA.

rich

[Rich Toscano]

davelj, you are correct, peak oil is absolutely not accepted as fact by all experts. But I would note that CERA is famous for their optimistic view on oil production (not to mention their dismal forecasting record). They come across to me as the NAR of oil forecasting.

To be clear, I realize that you weren’t endorsing the views of CERA, and that you were just rebutting the “observation vs theory” statement — I just couldn’t help taking a shot at CERA.

rich

[Rich Toscano]

davelj, you are correct, peak oil is absolutely not accepted as fact by all experts. But I would note that CERA is famous for their optimistic view on oil production (not to mention their dismal forecasting record). They come across to me as the NAR of oil forecasting.

To be clear, I realize that you weren’t endorsing the views of CERA, and that you were just rebutting the “observation vs theory” statement — I just couldn’t help taking a shot at CERA.

rich

[Rich Toscano]

Contrary to what appears to be popular belief in the media, the “peak oil” concept is not about the amount of reserves, it’s about flow rates. IE, it’s not how much oil is underground, it’s how many barrels can be produced/processed on a daily basis.

The processing required for shale oil as well as tar sands makes them different from the good old days where the Saudis could just turn a valve and increase the flow rate (which they still can do on some fields, but this is just on a small marginal proportion of total supply). They also have much greater environmental impact, to the extent that ramping them up too much would cause other problems.

So shale/tar sands may represent a vast reserve of oil in the ground, but it’s questionable as to whether they can replace the flow lost from declining conventional oil sources.

I am not an “expert” either but this is my understanding from reading/talking to people who are. (For those who wish to know more, try http://gregor.us/ — this is a blog written by Gregor Macdonald, a great energy analyst in addition to being a brilliant macro analyst imho).

Rich

[Author]

Posts