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Raybyrnes
ParticipantHawk,
An easier way of paying the car off would be to contact your student loan servicer and request a forbearance. You could re route the payments towards paying off the car and come back to the Student Loans in the future. If you are both working at the moment your are phased out at around 110K on the student loan interest deduction (should be a couple of CPA’s on this board who can verify the #’s) but if you plan on cutting back hours when you have kids this would be a decent time to begin paying this back when the interest on each month payment potentially becomes deductible. Don’t know if this helps or not.
ParticipantHawk,
An easier way of paying the car off would be to contact your student loan servicer and request a forbearance. You could re route the payments towards paying off the car and come back to the Student Loans in the future. If you are both working at the moment your are phased out at around 110K on the student loan interest deduction (should be a couple of CPA’s on this board who can verify the #’s) but if you plan on cutting back hours when you have kids this would be a decent time to begin paying this back when the interest on each month payment potentially becomes deductible. Don’t know if this helps or not.
ParticipantCapeman
I can see how gold could be used to diversify and little or no covariance with market remoses some risk but hasn’t gold had a fairly big run up at this point.
ParticipantCapeman
I can see how gold could be used to diversify and little or no covariance with market remoses some risk but hasn’t gold had a fairly big run up at this point.
ParticipantI am a pretty big fan of ETF’s. I have held EFA over the last 4 years. If looking to add a little bit of Beta to your portfolio another way to invest in in Depository receipts Ex ADRE. Challenger here is you will ahve to pay commision each time you buy and sell.
Rather than simply focus on the sector or investment type you might also consider strategy. Market seems a little high at the moment so another idea might be to open an account with the minimum and dollar cost average into the fund over the next year or 2. This would help take some of the risk out of timing the market. By this I mean pick a fund and open it up with 5000k and then contribute 1K a month over the next 15 months.
ParticipantI am a pretty big fan of ETF’s. I have held EFA over the last 4 years. If looking to add a little bit of Beta to your portfolio another way to invest in in Depository receipts Ex ADRE. Challenger here is you will ahve to pay commision each time you buy and sell.
Rather than simply focus on the sector or investment type you might also consider strategy. Market seems a little high at the moment so another idea might be to open an account with the minimum and dollar cost average into the fund over the next year or 2. This would help take some of the risk out of timing the market. By this I mean pick a fund and open it up with 5000k and then contribute 1K a month over the next 15 months.
ParticipantThe first thing is to aggregate your investments and figure out what each sector represents. Next you would want to determine your target allocation. Once that has been determined you can better decide how to contribute to your portfolio. If you have a short time horizon you may want to go with a less agressive allocation. This might mean that if you ahve underweighted things such as bonds you may want to incorporate them into your portfolio. If your 401K is diversified but ther3e is a great bond fund that is closed off to retail that might be an opportunity to get more exposure to bonds in the 401K and take on a little more risk with the 20K you have. You might have better option on the retail side finding great companies either foreign or domestic. One international fund company that I like is Dodge and Cox. Can open accounts directly with this company and avoid the commissions. the management fees are reasonable.
ParticipantThe first thing is to aggregate your investments and figure out what each sector represents. Next you would want to determine your target allocation. Once that has been determined you can better decide how to contribute to your portfolio. If you have a short time horizon you may want to go with a less agressive allocation. This might mean that if you ahve underweighted things such as bonds you may want to incorporate them into your portfolio. If your 401K is diversified but ther3e is a great bond fund that is closed off to retail that might be an opportunity to get more exposure to bonds in the 401K and take on a little more risk with the 20K you have. You might have better option on the retail side finding great companies either foreign or domestic. One international fund company that I like is Dodge and Cox. Can open accounts directly with this company and avoid the commissions. the management fees are reasonable.
ParticipantSimple. Developers did not purchase the land but rather purchased the option to buy the land. Rather than pay 100 million to a land owner they might have paid 4 million for the right to buy at a specific price.
Rather than increase inventory in let’s say Del sur they have elected not to exercie their rights to buy that land. Instead of creating an additonal 1000 units of housing they elect postpone plans to build. their cost to walk away from the project is simply the cost of the option. They do not carry the same risk as had they bougth the land outright. Additionally they now have effectively reduced the amount of hiomes that will be built out in the short run.
ParticipantBuilders build. That is what they do. Supply side economics?? Don’t make me laugh, seriously. I gues they will hold onto that inventory at inflated prices while they burn cash building and have to pay their people?? You are talking to someone with years of experience in manufacturing. Holding inventory is bad. Trust me on that one. The builders are undercutting flippers and offering incentives to get their homes to sell. Have not seen the articles about builders getting sued by recent customers because they lowered the prices?? I believe it was lennar.
You are talking about something completely different than what I am referring too. I am not referring to built out inventories. I am referring to land options that they are simply walking away from. Del Sur and San Elijo Hills. This was actually referred to in todays Union Tribune. It was actually a decent article. Unusual for the Union Trib.
As for the Fed raising rates, I would think that they would. I look at the costs of food and gas and there is inflation. I also think back to around 2002 when the fed raised from 8.5 to 8.75 ultimately getting to 9 and the stock market surged in light of these raises. I feel like we are going through this all over again.
In light of short term rates long term rates are still low. Inverted yield curve(already know sign of recession) but nin light of interest rates they ahve gone down. If rates reset and are low and the governemtnsteps in to assist many borrowers hurt by the reset you might not see a crash. Additionally we are going to be entering into an election year and GOP is going to have people looking at 401K going up, home ownership going up econoimic prosperity to sidetrack the discussion of the war. Don’t be surprised if gloom and doom does not come.
ParticipantI have actually listened to Rich as he made a presentation to a class I took. I think you are going to see government interevention with respect to bad loans. Additonally the majority of the problemed loans are still coming back to job losses divorce etc. It has not been resets that are creating the majority NOD’s.
Additionlly % rates have remained low. Unemployment data is low. These are driving factors. They are not signaling a turn for the worst.
Builders and developers used option when they were buying land. They ahve walked away form many of their deals. Supply side economics suggests that they can prop up prices by reducing inventories. This is what they are doing. This type of fuding arragement was not around during the last downturn.
ParticipantI love it. Keep getting pissed. I find it comical. You need to loosen up. People can have different opinions. 2 people can get to the San Diego Zoo and travel on different streets.
I provided primary data that can be looked up by going to OFTHEO. While real estate on a National level has been an average investment, real estate in California has been an excellent long term investment. Now a contrarian can argue that ultimately California is no different than the rest of the country and their will come a time where there will be a regression to the mean but I do not believe this is the case.
Before the declines of the 90 their was a plateua period. even if one were to argue the cyclical nature of real estae you would have to argue using data that the next phase is a period of plateau. Not up nor down. That is what the data suggests.
ParticipantJWM
Most of the accountants that I know are not typically following their wiives around. I guess they are better at it than you.
Let’s face it. Your posts make an effort at you somehow being knowlegable of Real Estate. have you sold real estate. NO Have you been in the appraisal side. No Have you been on the lender side NO. I don’t know maybe you are a good accountant but that doesn’t mean you know anything about real estate. Additionally if you left Chi town in 04 you don’t have nearly enough time in the San Diego area to step up like you are some kind of expert.
As I have stated in numerous posts I am renting. If my wife and I were both working I would buy something I was comfortable with. I would be less inclined to wory about the timing of my purchase. There has rarely been a period of time when people buying houses did so becasue they were timeing markets. The majority of people buy because they have families, are looking for particular school systems, and can afford to buy. Ask them ten years after they bought and they will tell you people thoght they were paying a premium.
Why don’t you take a look at OFHEO and take a look at California and the historical price increases. There was a period from I believe 1990 to 1996 where there were declines but this was due to job losses in the area and a Change in teh ta codes in terms of write offs. While I would cheerlead for a decline in prices because it would advantage me the reality is that I don’t foresee the declines most here are suggesting in the areas that I would consider buying. La jolla, Del Mar, Encinitas, Carlsbad, Carmel Valley, Mt soledad. So rather than hope and be disgruntled I will focus on creating revenue and doubling my income to make up for the high prices. This I can control. The housing market I can not.
ParticipantJWM
The most disgruntle of them all. All that data and logic and his mechanic neighbor that just pulled the trigger is worth twice as much as him. Can’t handle the fact that you missed out on a huge opportunity. I didn’t buy 6 years ago and I simply can admit that mistake. Must really sour that the author is decribing you to a T. Just a disgruntled person. Once agian my feeling is that you are just a hack.
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