[rankandfile]

sdrealtor, you probably have the most credibility of anyone on this forum, and not just because you are a Phil Hendrie fan. You call it like it is, and that will serve you well. Please post your email sometime…I’d like to work with you if/when we decide to buy out here.

[rankandfile]

Sdduuuuuuuuuuuuuuuude, you play a good game of pointing out flaws in analysis, but where’s your line in the sand? It’s easy to play armchair quarterback and critique every little nuance in one’s statement. At least Powayseller has enough balls to come in here and make a claim and do her best to support it. Ok, ok, so she didn’t use the Case-Schiller Methodology that you recommend. Whoopdy-frickin-do to you for citing that. The point here is that you can readily point out a problem, but what’s YOUR solution? What’s your prediction of where the prices will be?

I think you’ll find that the Rankandfile Simplified Index (RSI= (Current prices/2)= 50% drop) will prove to be quite accurate in the not-too-distant future. 😉

[rankandfile]

Is it me, or do Bernanke’s statements set the stage, or at least justify the government’s role in adding to inflation post 2002? Like foreshadowing the rising inflation that was to come, to the point that we are more than beyond now. I am not an economic expert by any stretch of the imagination, but it seems like he was raising false concerns over deflation (a rare occurrence in his own words) to justify future potential increases in inflation. And I don’t understand how we were experiencing “low” inflation in 2002. Although I have no data to support my argument, I would surmise that prices for most goods seemed to be relatively inflated and steadily increasing in 2002…at least here in SoCal.

Getting back to P.S.’s original post, I tend to agree with her more on gut feeling than anything else. As I’ve said numerous other times, take the current prices of homes, divide by 2, and start negotiating from there. I think that Rich’s graph of home prices vs. per capita income tells the tale. People’s need to live in a home in SoCal has not increased by 25-30%, so why pay 25-30% more of your takehome pay to live in a home here?

The kibitzer will say, “Well, demand is high relative to supply.” Although this may be partially true, as time wears on I am becoming increasingly skeptical that demand was falsely increased by speculation…aka “hype”. This can be attributed to a number of factors, such as the media, IMHO. One can’t help but point out that marketing has an effect on, well, markets, and people’s psyche in general. Of course supply couldn’t keep up with the demand created by hype…I don’t suppose it ever can when it concerns building something as large and complex as a home. Even Apple has trouble stocking enough of those little iPods to keep up with demand. [By the way, for an extra $50 or so you can get a sweet PDA and an SD card that will let you play all your music AND check emails, word process, edit spreadsheets, etc…but I digress).

Back to the main point – Powayseller has my vote on a 55% decrease.

[rankandfile]

Let me tell you, when the sh** hits the fan, and nukes start flying, I am taking my family and high-tailing it out of San Diego, and California for that matter, post haste. Yes, flying nukes is a worst case (and highly unlikely) scenario, but San Diego County is a military target with all of the bases and installations here. And there’s also the nuclear powerplant by Camp Pendleton that will likely be a target. I think we’ll settle somewhere in Montana and see how things pan out.

[rankandfile]

You are going to hate me, hipmatt, but I don’t know if criticizing America is going to solve anything in terms of averting World War 3. Concerning American consumerism, I hate to say it, but it is purely a function of human nature. Most people, in general, want to improve their future condition…whatever that may be. Simply put, they want to get better. That’s why capitalism works better than most other economical systems-it rewards ingenuity and hard work, two items that are essential to improving one’s situation.

It has often been implied that Americans are just a bunch of lazy consumers. I do not agree with this. I think that we are more competitive and entreprenurial than most other nations as a whole and that’s why we are successful. Don’t be misled by media propaganda, many other nations are currently partaking in many of the same consumeristic activities that we are…or they are striving to get to that point. I’ve been to Switzerland and Italy and I saw a lot of people driving large Mercedes sedans or SUVs. Sure, there were a lot of smaller cars in relation to what we see here in SoCal, but I think that might be more a function of the higher gas prices and the small city roads there. You don’t think that people in China and India are striving to make a better life for themselves by acquiring personal wealth?

Purchasing things like granite countertops is an investment in one’s property…it is meant to add value. Just like a city that installs concrete curbs and sidewalks rather than just keeping it as dirt. They are investments that serve a purpose and add value.

Now purchasing an SUV in this day and age is, IMHO, a poor investment and I wouldn’t personally do it. The only time I have a problem with people that own SUVs is when they think they are special and try to bully their way around on the road or take up 2 parking spots.

[rankandfile]

Bugs, it’s nice to see that you give the benefit of the doubt when posting. Maybe you just have a longer fuse than the rest of us. But you must consider the organization producing the study, the people on this post reading it, and the overall context of the housing situation. When you read 99 articles and they all lean one way, and then suddenly you get 1 that leans (or appears to) the other way, how do you expect us to react? Try replacing the word “houses” with something like guns (or another item such as gas), and replace the NAR with the NRA (National Rifle Association). How would you perceive the study, then, when the NRA says that the high price of guns is a voting issue? The point here is that the very group that probably benefits the most from high home prices has come out with a study that APPEARS to be self-defeating. Wouldn’t you be at least a little skeptical?

[rankandfile]

Learning something from me is giving me WAY too much credit. I am green behind the ears compared to many of the experts on this site. However, I have learned a lot as a result. I thought that after Rich got his new position that this site would just fade away and disappear. The funny thing is that my participation has actually increased after that point! I guess I was wrong.

Unfortunately, I don’t think I will be able to make it to the Meet-N-Greet on Saturday, although I will try to make a cameo appearance if I can. I plan on going to Ponto beach with my old lady and daughter for the first time this summer. And no, she’s not an old lady. 😉

[rankandfile]

I agree with Powayseller on the 50% drop, but I am a bit more bearish and think it will occur within 3-5 years.

[rankandfile]

PS: Are these the same LOW paying jobs that we lazy Americans don’t want? If $18-$20/hour is low-paying, maybe I’m in the wrong field. What really gets me is how illegals are paid so well, yet many continue to get paid under the table and don’t pay taxes or medical bills…oh, and they get preferential treatment when applying for schools and we taxpayers should help pay for it!

What’s down is up and what’s up is down.

[rankandfile]

As my Dad used to say, the shoe is on the other foot.

[rankandfile]

Toughen up a bit, Mr. Gin. You ask where all the civility has gone in our society? Well I ask where has the toughness and accountability gone? I’d venture to say we are over-civil to the point where we can’t question or call anybody out on things for fear of being sued, demanded to apologize, or whatever. So I called you a liar…BFD-prove me wrong. Yes, this is the internet and I am anonymous, but I’d call you out straight to your face if you had the gaul to feed me that bunk in person. But that’s just me. You want some advice? Instead of going into damage control mode and trying to retort us on this post, just give it to us straight, baby. Otherwise, take the snowjobs elsewhere…the warm weather is about the ONLY thing keeping many of us here these days.

[rankandfile]

Toughen up a bit, Mr. Gin. You ask where all the civility has gone in our society? Well I ask where has the toughness and accountability gone? I’d venture to say we are over-civil to the point where we can’t question or call anybody out on things for fear of being sued, demanded to apologize, or whatever. So I called you a liar…BFD-prove me wrong. Yes, this is the internet and I am anonymous, but I’d call you out straight to your face if you had the gaul to feed me that bunk in person. But that’s just me. You want some advice? Instead of going into damage control mode and trying to retort us on this post, just give it to us straight, baby. Otherwise, take the snowjobs elsewhere…the warm weather is about the ONLY thing keeping many of us in SoCal these days.

[rankandfile]

How about professional liability/errors & omissions rates? Are they decreasing as well?

[rankandfile]

This report has government bailout written all over it. When I first saw the title of the post I was expecting to read some wacky survey by the NAR that showed how people thought home prices were reasonable, or something crazy like that. However, seeing the information that they came up with and how some of the data is summarized, it smells like they are trying really hard to work a political angle here (e.g., home prices being a voting issue, people wanting more affordable housing, etc.).

It’s hilarious that they mention nothing of the fact that the grossly over-priced homes are due partly to the actions of realtors themselves, one of the main groups who directly benefit from exhorbitent home prices! Now they are taking an indirect (and most likely orchestrated) approach to drumming up government support for affordable homes. I particularly like how their survey showed that high home prices has led to a decrease in productivity! Classic!

[rankandfile]

Then both you and her need help. I don’t mind some challenging reading from time to time, but comon. A single thought drawn out over a seemingly endless tirade of words, and over-peppered with analogies? I’d rather drag my boys across broken glass.

Nothing personal to either of you, but maybe provide a link to an executive summary next time for us breathing Visigoths.

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