[powayseller]

CNN is reporting in bold red headlines: Dow is at its highest for 2nd day in a row. Below, headlines are Bernanke’s and Fed Chief Hoehnig’s warning about the slowing economy. Walmart’s earnings were up only 1.3%, instead of 1.8% as announced earlier this week. If you look at what’s up in the Dow, only a few companies are benefitting. The tech stocks are down…Dobbs reports that the middle income people are squeezed and spending the highest percentage of wages on housing in our country’s history: 30%. So the headlines are paradoxical.

Do you think there is a plunge protection team that is buying up shares of just a few Dow companies, enough to make the entire index go ballistic and prove via the media that the economy is hot?

[powayseller]

4plexowner nailed it! On august 9, Bush’s buddy Paulson converted the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index oil weighting downward, causing billions of dollars of oil to be sold off.

Remember, oil was high based on futures trading! With the futures price donw, voila; lower gas prices.

When oil fell, natural gas followed, and that’s what screwed Amaranth.

As CR said, it helps to have friends in high places.

[powayseller]

sdr, I will have all this data on my website, including the months supply, and percent change year over year. A realtor told me that inventory decreases in the fall, and sometimes it’s in Agust, some years Sept, some years Oct. It varies, so just because in the last 2 years it decreased in October, doesn’t mean it always decreases in October. Again, months supply is still rising, so inventory can fall all it wants; as long as sales keep falling MORE, then months inventory will keep rising. We have a very incomplete picture when we look at inventory. The better picture is presented by “months supply”. That is what I’ll be using…

[powayseller]

I am a big fan of Rich, and I didn’t intend to “negate his work”. I don’t think he made any strong conclusions from that data, and he really can’t. My point is: the chart is interesting, but not too useful. We can’t make too much out of inventory falling unless we know how much sales fell. I agree with sduuude (gosh, can’t believe he and I are getting along now….too weird to figure that one out), that it is months inventory that matters.

So what if inventory falls, if sales are falling the same amount or more? We need a chart of sales next to the chart of inventory.

If months inventory is rising, pricing pressure will keep falling. So I think that months inventory is a more useful chart, if you wanted to have only one chart.

I think that Rich appreciates my comments, because ultimately we are all collaborating on figuring this stuff out.

[powayseller]

sduuude, if I have a spanish section on my website, do you think people would come to it? THat is a really good idea!

[powayseller]

3-mo. Treasuries, yup. In our retirement account. Are you saying investors will flock from equities to short term Treasuries?

Here’s another investing idea: inverse funds. Yesterday I got my monthly Yamamoto Forecast, and the entire newsletter was about the disconnect between the economic slowdown and the Dow going higher (although he reminds us the rise is limited to just the biggest caps). So the idea is why not get an inverse fund, like the Rydex Inverse Fund? That ought to be a safe way to go against the market, without having to short or get puts.

[powayseller]

Thanks, Itokuda.

I have a question I cannot solve.

Many of us expect the stock market to decline in anticipation of a weaker economy, due to falling housing and thus falling consumer spending.

But: where will the investor put their money when they are fearful of recession? As of now, they are loading full force into the Blue Chips, the Dow 30 companies.

The money has flown out of real estate, and into the stock market. Today, WalMart had a bad earnings report, and that is going to be the beginning of the bad news coming out of corporate America. But the stock market can only go down, IF and ONLY IF investors sell their stocks. If investors stay in stocks, the stock cannot go down.

Why shouldn’t investors stay in stocks? Where else to go? Gold? THey are fearful of the volatility. Treasuries?

If you can predict where the mutual funds and hedge funds and big money goes, you can get in early. If they stay in stocks, maybe it was bad to sell our stocks, bec. stocks will keep rising.

[powayseller]

Some of the comments have been really good. I didn’t realize that people were using the upper right corner to see what threads were active, since I always went to the forums myself so I could see the entire list. I can totally see how my threads made the others push off the list. Sorry that I did not realize that before. It’s funny – you come to a site every day and don’t even notice the little things like that.

Thanks for the $20 offer, LOL. I started a blog in 1 minute once, it’s so easy. Blogs lack the features I need, so I tried designing my own website, but was in over my head. I hired a website designer.

Lots of good stuff in the forums today. sdcellar, I was not referring to you.

I did explain the median to everyone here, including Rich, so he and I have learned from each other along the way.

I also miss Rich’s content, and I’m guessing his posts will increase after he adapts to the new job. (SoCalMtgGuy cut back on his posts for a while after taking his new job, but then started posting again). There is still lots going on in the housing and employment market, and much to write about, so I’m going to keep checking back to see what Rich and you all have to say.

I appreciate all the kind words of support, and also thank sduuuude for “pushing me out of the nest”, so to speak. I just took a break from my own site, but need to get back to it, as he pointed out.

[powayseller]

October Yamamoto Forecast is at its most bearish position ever. He, and Barry Ritholtz talk about the huge disconnect between the perception of investors and reality of the market. Being in cash is safe, regardless of the outcome. Great post, qcomer!

[powayseller]

lewman, that’s the point I was trying to make: nobody worships me, nobody is my “fan”, so the comment made above that she is my fan is an insult.

[powayseller]

The fan comments is the most ignorant thing said so far. The forum is not a place of worship, and lostkitty has shown herself way too sophisticated to be insulted like that. Like the other 1000 or 2000 people who come here to lurk, lostkitty doesn’t have the time or the interest to start any threads. Every time a woman defends me, she is insulted as being a mindless fan. Get over yourself! hs, lindismith, and lost-kitty are way too intelligent.

Don’t confuse someone’s interest in reading about housing with someone’s interest in the person making the posts. All the lurkers just like the content, and don’t want the posts to stop. They don’t care WHO makes the posts.

Don’t you see what’s really happening? I’m being used, totally. You guys are all out working, earning money, while I work for free, providing you with real estate news. I was the one who explained the median, economic cycles, and much much more. I bring you unique stuff, you get free content, and Rich gets more traffic coming to his site.

By the way, I didn’t see any housing market news in the forums today, just 3 threads that actually belonged in “properties and areas” and “buying and selling real estate”. The complainers lack the ability, I guess, to write about anything intelligent, because they missed all the stuff going on today in the housing news.

[powayseller]

“I would like to see it be more community oriented and less dominated by one person’s voice.”

Amen!

Start writing, folks!

So far this morning, the housing forum page had only 1 thread. Redirect your energies from complaining about me on this off topic thread, to posting some unique and more varied points of view. Why the heck isn’t anyone doing it?

If your goal is truly to improve the quality of the forums, then improve it. Start writing!

Your character and true purpose will be shown in the content you ueber-posting bashers add from this day on.

[powayseller]

sduuude, your comment is based on skimming the original article and not having read Cagan’s earlier work. The preceding sentence was about “masses of foreclosures leading to recession”, which you couldn’t have if only some of those 19% led to foreclosure.

[powayseller]

Thanks for all the comments so far. I am sorry if I was inconsiderate to other threads, by making them go further down the list. I never had the malice that is attributed to me. I posted not to make someone else’s post go down the list, but to provide new information that I came across.

This is a great opportunity for sduuude to begin some threads. I can take this time to put the finishing touches on my own website, and you guys can redirect the forums. I am anxious to read the threads that you all start, and look forward to learning more what everyone else thinks.

[powayseller]

At the meetup, my husband asked Rich how much time he spends on this site. He happily replied that he didn’t need to post too much anymore, since I write so much of the content. That’s when I first realized how much I’ve been helping out Rich, and I’m happy to do so. When the forums get new posts, people keep coming to the site.

My posts are very good, and I know it. I bring out questions, information, and analysis that isn’t available elsewhere. You are free to disagree, so if you don’t like my posts, why read them? I agree with you – I love Rich’s posts, and wish that Rich and others would write more.

Your idea is so great, I suggest you get the ball rolling!
Start some posts yourself on housing and the economy. Tell us what you think about gold, the stock market, Open Houses. What insights have you gleaned about the stalled market, how to sell a house, builder adjustments to the slowdown? Can you give us your analysis of Christopher Cagan’s report, or give us a link to some economist interviews on the housing market? If you just complain about me, without offering anything productive, you sound like sour grapes. Starting a thread about housing, rather than about me, would certainly be more productive and interesting. So get the ball rolling, and maybe others will follow your exemplary lead!

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