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powayseller
ParticipantFSD, I can’t explain the discrepany between the chart you provided and the chart on Chris’s website. Maybe you can explain it to me. I’m not really sure.
ParticipantI’m one of Chris’ subscribers, and have promoted his service here a lot. Not sure why he chose to leave…but I agree, it is too bad.
ParticipantDumb people lack the brains to start a thread of their own. That’s why they won’t do it. They are incapable.
Some dumb people are cowards too: they hide behind their anonymous names and try to destroy people.
ParticipantYes, the realtors who regularly post here are realistic.
Participantvrudny, which inverse fund did you buy? Rydex? The ProFunds is a scam; outatthepeak lost money when his fund went down at a time when the market was going down; it does not track the inverse at all as they claim. Rydex’ performance history does seem to track the inverse as they claim. I’m not going to short stocks, instead I will buy inverse funds. Time to load up….this rally is the perfect time to get a good price on an inverse fund, isn’t it?
ParticipantA realtor told me today that as soon as prices drop a little more, the sales will really pick up. There is so much pent-up demand, he said. His buyers are waiting on the sidelines, but it’s interesting: the same buyers waiting in the spring for prices to drop said they’d buy in July; in July they said they’d buy in September, and now they say they’ll buy next spring. I told him that buyers are holding out, so the lower prices go, the fewer people will buy because they wait to see how much lower prices will go. He quickly interrupted me to remind me of the pent-up demand. This guy is bearish, too. I think it’s hard to be impartial when you’re a realtor. They either believe you can be safe by buying “superior properties”, or that prices will fall for another year or two but only a little bit and then will pick back up again, or they say there’ll be a spring rebound, etc. He tried to talk me into getting a realtor license to give me creditbility for my website, but I think having a realtor license would make me less credible, and more of a salesperson. I still haven’t found a realtor who wants to face the reality.
ParticipantSounds familiar. It’s frustrating to see people in denial that this could happen here.
ParticipantFormerSanDiegan, I disagree, based on what I read from Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture/ Cash has outperformed since 2000.
“• The Dow has only 10 stocks above their January 2000 highs, and of those 10, four are responsible for dragging the index higher – Boeing, United Technology, Altria and Caterpillar.• Despite the recent move towards big cap and tech, be aware of the pundits who have been advising you of this for the past 5 years have been very, very wrong. (We made the suggestion to shift to big caps over the summer). The Nasdaq 100, for example, is still down an eye-popping 65% from its 2000 highs.
• The 3 bullet points above are why most investors are not feeling like they are at 6 year highs; Unless they hold only Dow stocks – or the 4 mentioned above – most investors portfolios remain far below their 2000 peaks.
• Cash has outperformed the Dow since January 2000; Even considering reinvested dividends; cash STILL out performs the Dow.
• The Dow’s Real (inflation adjusted) performance, even with dividends reinvested, is significantly below breakeven.” The Big Picture blog, 10/3/06
Chris Johnston has a post about this on his blog: Is there Trouble Brewing in Paradise? “There is a trememdous lag developing between the DOW index and the S&P 500. Notice how we are at new highs on the DOW, yet are quite a ways behind the old highs in the S&P 500.
This is a bearish sign for the indexes. I have been looking for a rally all year and we have finally seen one. I had been expecting it to happen later in the year. Maybe this big divergence means we will see a drop off into the fall setting up the real buy point. Notice how closely correlated all the way up to the 2000 high these two indexes were, which is the relationship that should be in place.” – quote from iamafuturestrader.com, 10/4/06
Chris is talking about “the real buy point” being in the fall. I don’t see where I misquoted anyone. In an e-mail to me on 10/1/06, he said “the blue chips leading a rally is not really what we want. It generally indicates people going into safe things and precedes a decline.” I’m not going to guess what he is expecting.
For me, I’m glad I’m in cash. Soon enough, the housing-led slowdown will lead to a recession, just as it has done every time in 40 years. Car sales are off 5%, another recession indicator. The yield curve is inverted, signaling 80% chance of recession. Nothing has changed to make me recall my recession forecast.
October 9, 2006 at 7:59 PM in reply to: Some advice on home loan interest rate vs. typical home appreciation rate #37525Participantdoofrat, your post brings to mind a conversation I had today with a realtor who says that there is no way that San Diego rental properties will ever be cash flow positive. He says this has probably never happened, and it never will. Home prices will not fall enough to be equal to 10x annual rent. I’m going to get some data on rents over the past decades, but in the meantime, do you have any comments?
ParticipantSorry, Chris, I did not read the newsletter. I apologize if I made a mistake on item #1. However, the gist of my post is correct. You’ve called a lot of correct moves, and it is too early to tell if we will have the mid-year rally that you are expecting.
I do know however that this narrow rally in the big caps is not the mid-presidential year rally, which is a 2-year rally of the entire stock market, starting in the fall. I assume i was correct in quoting you on items #1 and #2. So I wanted to clarify that what we have here is some kind of odd divergence, not a repeat of the mid-presidential election year rally.
Chris, after all the names I’ve been called, I still post here, and now one of your fans and most vocal proponents of your service (me), makes a mistake on 1 out of 3 points, and you leave the forums? It’s puzzling, to say the least.
ParticipantChris was talking about a mid-year presidential election year with these characteristics: 1) it starts off a low, 2) it starts end October or early Nov, and 3) it lasts 1 – 2 years. The September rally is *not* what he had in mind. It was sduuude who made the error of crediting Chris for predicting the September rally; it was not at all what Chris was talking about. This rally is limited to a few Dow stocks, and even the bulls are concerned about its narrow scope.
ParticipantIf the house costs less than 8-12x annual rent, then buy. We’re a long way from that. I will have the charts on my website.
October 8, 2006 at 9:23 PM in reply to: Bressi Ranch…16 new homes to be auctioned off 10/21/06 #37481ParticipantBugs, besides the shoddy construction,why don’t you like new subdivision homes?
ParticipantIt’s been so quiet around here, I’ve gotten a little bored, so I spend more of my internet time on other blogs, like roubini, itulip, dean baker… I think the thousands of people who come here every day want to read, not spend their time researching and posting.
This site draws a very high caliber of people, and they are busy working and spending weekends with family, and they want the housing news and forecast delivered to them, not have to work for it.
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